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Probably A Dumb Question...

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Valued Member
CollectorKing's Avatar
262 Posts
 Posted 03/04/2016  10:23 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add CollectorKing to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
Whenever I am looking into buying another note I always shop around and try to find the best price, that's a given.. I usually use my comprehensive guide to look at the estimation of surviving population to try to figure rarity.. I see notes listed with listings saying:

"only 74 notes known"
"Only 2 notes higher grade"
"Highest grade known", etc..

How do you know how many notes there are? My guess is there is a website that offers a search of all notes that are reported. And by reported that's only notes that have been graded by TPG right? And obviously it's all ESTIMATED, theres no real way to know 100% How many exactly there are, in most cases..

I feel like this is a NEWB question.
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WheatBack's Avatar
United States
2850 Posts
 Posted 03/04/2016  10:37 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add WheatBack to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
PCGS and PMG give a population page of how many notes they've graded and to what grade they receive. Track & Price software logs completed auctions from ebay, Heritage, Lyn Knight etc, and has an extensive census on the amount of notes known from logging auction results.
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GoldenChest's Avatar
United States
814 Posts
 Posted 03/05/2016  12:30 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add GoldenChest to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It's a lot easier to know how many notes there are then coins. Each note is unique in its SN and design. Some people use this to make a profit, other use it in an attempt to educate. You are correct tho, no way to truly know exactly how many there are still in existence. I think it keeps things interesting.
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amrys's Avatar
United States
95 Posts
 Posted 03/05/2016  05:58 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add amrys to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
To check the populations to estimate rarity can be a misleading guide.
PMG and PCGS can only show HOW MANY notes THEY have graded.
But: How many raw notes are still out there?
That is the question!
And that is much more difficult to estimate.
It's possible that ACTUALLY a note seems to be rare, just because there aren't many listed in the populations.
But when an experienced dealer tells me there are literally hundreds of such notes in raw out there, I would be very careful to pay much money for the graded notes.
Better is to wait for the others.

I'm specialized in LGS and especially the $1000 notes are my favor. So I've tried to get as much information about this denomination as possible.
For example: It's known that St. Louis is a very common district, ALTHOUGH there are many CU or GEM LGS notes still raw.
Other districts seem to rare, but a few are only ACTUALLY rare in the population, but not really rare at all.

These aspects make things more difficult to estimate, but with patience and your growing knowledge it's possible to feel more sure to make the right decisions.


Rest in Peace
moxking's Avatar
United States
17900 Posts
 Posted 03/05/2016  1:21 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add moxking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Although using the rarity estimates established by TPG's has some value it is important to remember that the actual price an item or currency sells for well NOT be because of the old "supply and demand" adage.

If you are searching for $1000+ value notes the number of people able to afford that level of purchase is significantly lower than those who can afford to spend $100.

So although you might have 10,000 ACTIVE currency collectors there is probably only a small percentage of them who can afford the higher value items.

If there are only 10 known examples of a particular piece but only 5 buyers able to pay the current price for one of those available issues, one of them pay sit for some time before they actually sell.

The price is not determined just by supply and demand, but by the ability of the collectors interested in a piece to afford that level of collection.

As an example, if a rare item worth $50,000 is offered for sale, but the only people who see the offer could never afford a purchase at even $10,000, then it may be quite some time before a 'high roller' finds and wants that item.

Rarity must be compensated by price level as well as interest.
Valued Member
amrys's Avatar
United States
95 Posts
 Posted 03/05/2016  2:59 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add amrys to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
moxking: I absolutely agree!

It's exactly my experience.
When I first saw this note I was shocked and frustrated, because I thought I would never have a chance to get it:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/331178148764?ru=http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html%3F_from=R40&_sacat=0&_nkw=331178148764&_rdc=1

I showed this note a few days ago in another thread.
It's not rare because there are only a few known, but it's the only known Dallas LGS note in unc at PMG and PCGS.

When I first saw it - and it was my goal to build a $1000 1934 LGS set - I was convinced that this note would be quickly sold and I wouldn't have a chance to find another one.
But when time passed the note was still available and the day came (in 2014) when the seller was ready to discuss a much lower price.

High end notes are special, but so are the possible buyers.

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Coinfrog's Avatar
United States
94367 Posts
 Posted 03/05/2016  4:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Coinfrog to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Well said, amrys. Small-size paper money collecting is still in its infancy. There are staggering numbers of raw high-grade notes of all denominations out there, and multiples more of circulated "kinda funny looking" circulated notes that people have stashed away.
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