Canada $20 Silver Coin (1990-2015) Mintage Analysis

Thank you for your inputs wildflowerAB.

I didn't analyze the other denominations because the $20 seemed like the right NCLT to investigate. However I suspect that the same observation can be made at large.

Electronic marketing, social media and ease of access to information coupled with potential quick profits have changed the landscape dramatically. I think gender might have played a role here. Why?

Because we have moved in an era of artistic appeal, of something that is different and unique. Pretty. Glittering. Vibrant. Colorful. Meaningful.

Let's face it, circulation coins are masculine: technical and downright boring. Here comes along the modern NCLTs and data shows that indeed... we now have a whole new segment of "collectors".

This is actually quite interesting to observe.

wildflowerAB, speaking of new collectors...

I will not live long enough to see this, but... one can imagine a future where conventional "money" is completely replaced by electronic money. Good or bad, this science fiction roadmap is perhaps inevitable. There could be pockets of resistance here and there, but in the end, all will fall in. Governments, businesses, people.

A few years ago someone argued that it would be impractical to pay for a newspaper with a debit or credit card, thus the need for cash. Well, guess what? Newspapers have been replaced with iPads. Somehow, the future finds its way.

Fast forward 50, 100 years to a world where there is no need for coins. You'd probably see a steady decline in new coin collectors and at best the coin market would stagnate. At worse, the market would completely collapse because all serious collectors would rush to sell in order to protect their investments.

The countless caribous, beavers and loonies will no longer be of any interest to anyone. As collectors jettison their stash these coins will be so abundant that perhaps only rare varieties will matter.

So this brings us back to NCLTs.

In a futuristic world like this, NCLTs might fare better because they will offer something that people can relate to. A theme and a place in time that is more than just a "date". Since NCLTs aren't meant to be spent they might actually survive the transition.

Thank you Canadian Coins for the terrific breakdown, formatting and graphs and all! Thanks also to WildflowerAB for the interesting conversation you two are having. Wow, 57 $20 coins in 2014? At least I know when I 'waste' my money with RCM I'm keeping lots of people employed! :)

My pleasure commens.

Like Isaac Asimov one said "People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do."

The fatigue was palpable in the mid-90's in terms of coins collecting in general. Coin shows were stagnant. There was very little to talk about. Along with the late 80's these years were the ultimate "boredom" of numismatics. The bobby was perplexing. Came the TPGs - but that's a different topic...

The emergence of the web in 2000's created an affluence of opportunities for smaller sellers and buyers. The buying power had shifted (with some caveats of course). This was a good thing, and still is.

Back to commens question, I think the RCM could not have done it differently because times were different. One or two NCLT releases per year were perilous enough. They did the right thing.

BTW - For what it's worth: NCLTs of the 80-90's are of superior quality.

And instead, if in 1948 that person had bought a dollars worth of gold at $34 /ounce, a couple of small nuggets I suppose, at today's gold price, that dollars worth would have grown to about $2600, still less than had it been invested. But of course interest rates were far higher for most of that period than they are now.

On the circulation side of things, it's been well proven numismatics should not be considered an investment because the hobby been around for decades.

in the case of NCLT, it has attracted new coin enthusiasts. However I'd say the investment aspect does not belong on the table because the total quantity of NCLT is virtually unlimited. It's ever increasing because RCM never stops producing it. It has no opportunity to become rare as more and more are manufactured each year, themes become repetitive, new issues soon become old and get added to the total NCLT pool that continues to grow and grow. Nothing is to stop RCM from minting another Ladybug, this time resting on a maple leaf. But another round of 1948 SDs will not occur.

Enjoy it for what it is, but best to consider it money spent to avoid disappointment.