What's Up With The Grizzly Coin?

I just watched the 2017 Cougar sculpture coin go under the hammer on a live online auction for $675 Canadian. At 3x bullion value (a 10oz Silver Maple is approx $245CDN) the premium may be reasonable for an ornament (this isn't a coin regardless of the fact the queen's head is on it and it has a denomination). However the RCM trend of charging 5x bullion for silver NCLT can only result in declining values and ultimately hurt the hobby.

Many collect for reasons other than investment but to see an expensive purchase take a 38%+ hit within a year is more reminiscent of purchasing a car vs. silver.

Hi Coin Hunter.

I am going to disagree with you on the "most things depreciate 38%" line. If you buy an item that has a finite lifetime ie. a consumable product like a car, a blender, a winter coat even a house if separated from the land beneath it, there is a defined and accepted depreciation cycle. Most businesses can write off the value of a computer in 2-3 years... Cars 5-7 etc.

Items purchased without a finite lifetime such as ornamental figurines (Doulton et al.), NCLT coins, fine art work etc. all should retain some association with their initial value. NCLT is market valuation driven and if the product routinely drops in value by a significant amount, then the initial pricing is too high.

I am personally in this because I enjoy collecting coins... we all have our own reasons... it is not for investment purposes however, if the valuations in the secondary market for an ornamental product are significantly and routinely lower, the market is telling the producer that the price they are charging is too high... Ultimately, this will result in a collapse of the primary market and a pullback on the part of the producer.

Whether the gap is mintage, aesthetic or initial cost is irrelevant. If the market does not ultimately sustain the prices for non consumable products, the market will go away. The occasional ladybird or superman coin will not save the RCM from a perceived lack of value.

My concern is that given the write downs experienced by the mint in the aftermath of the FV reversal, there is little resilience to weather a declining market storm. There are too many products, questionable aesthetics, over-inflated valuations for the RCM to sustain their current operational model.

We are already seeing pullbacks (Vancouver store closing). What next?

The point most of us are missing is the RCM still in this model seems to have 2/3 sellouts which works for them. Until the RCM dealers and us collectors get really selective in our buying habits, nothing will change, it's pretty simple logic for the RCM, we make them, you buy them. always buy what you like but if you know for sure about 97% of all recent issues will be heavily discounted in a few months, why would you pay full retail. The recent cost cutting measures by the RCM, Vancouver closing is sure signs of tough times ahead.