Random Thoughts About The 2016 Nps Commemorative Half Dollars

It is important to remember that the supply/demand ratio in the market does not depend on mintage on the supply side but rather on the number of coins currently available in the marketplace. A coin of relatively high mintage can have a high market value if the vast majority of the coins are being held tightly.

ahh, yes, the ol' strong hands / weak hands dichotomy. Unfortunately, it seems a decent percent of the US Mint customers these days are what are often referred to as "flippers". Not to disparage anyone that might do so, but there is a big difference between those who buy these coins on speculation towards selling on ebay in the near term, and those that truly appreciate these designs and what they stand for as numismatic representations of American heritage and history...and buy them for inclusion in a collection.

So, I think the supply/demand dynamics are incredibly complex.

With this series, low mintage is always for a lack of interest/demand. That is simply how it works. If gold prices go up, then demand may also go down. So overall mintage on these seems to be a factor of 1) gold price during sale, 2) number of other mint offerings that may divide demand, 3) quality of design and appeal of subject, and 4) whether or not the sales figures in the final week appear low enough to possibly break the current low mintage champion.

I think the after market prices are then also determined by 3) and obviously on the going gold price. Where the particular issue had strong design appeal, then there will likely be more specimens held in collections rather than being offered on the market, which can both decrease supply and increase demand. The few extremely low mintage issues may have their own inherent complexity...like the 1997 Jackie Robinson. Fairly ugly design (artistically by most standards) likely reduced demand during US Mint sale, which resulted in extremely low mintage, which increased after market demand as this issue became the low mintage key for 20 years.

It's the age-old "I have one, do you want one?". Who can figure that out? My wife got one as a Christmas gift from her boss (2016 NPS clad UNC half). So it was free, and will sit in the box of stuff until the next generation. When either lots of people want one, or almost nobody wants one. Place your bets!

Last sales for raw unc's were $30.79, $39.49, and $29.79...market is still developing and will do so for quite a while

First Strike 70's doing fine last being $299.99. The ship has sailed on getting that designation.

Listed prices are a bit higher than actual completed sales prices but that is to be expected.

The latest sales report from the mint has the number sold at 21,030. Will this drop below 21,000 in the next few weeks? What happens to the coins that are returned? Are they remelted or put in deep storage? Is the final Mintage figure released by the mint the number sold adjusted after returns or the total number minted including all returned coins?

Does someone know the answers to these questions?

I also noted that the mintage went down this week. Cheapest BIN price is now $58.86 and I'm watching 10 no reserve auctions for slabbed MS69 almost all from the same seller and all ending within a few hours of each other on Sunday (which doesn't seem too smart as a seller strategy to me). Fun to watch. Any guesses where price will settle? 1996 Olympic Swimming UNC seems to be around $100 with 2.5 times the mintage.