Detecting Fake Obscure World Commemorative Coins?

Hello all!

I'm not sure this is the right place for this, but I didn't want to post this in the counterfeit reporting forum, because I'm really not sure if these are counterfeit.. Back in 2001 there were some coins made by the Pobjoy Mint for Niue featuring five Pokemon. I know these types of coins aren't everyone's cup of tea, but I find this particular set interesting, partially because these coins seem pretty rare. Generally there aren't any available on ebay or any other auction site I've found.

Recently, however, a few popped up on ebay. One can be seen here:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/Niue-2001-P...62851012779?

There are a couple red flags for me about this coin. Firstly it's listed for $40 when normally they sell around $100. Secondly, it's coming from China, and there seem to be a lot of fake coins coming in from China on ebay. Thirdly, the packaging has what looks to me like Japanese writing on it, and maybe Chinese as well on the top-right of the back (haven't been able to translate it myself). Of all the examples I've seen in the past, the packaging has only English writing on it.

So, to my main question... Nothing looks wrong with the coin, so could this just be packaging that was made for a different market? How would you even begin to figure out if this coin was a fake?

There's precious little information about the coins available online, outside of a bit on Numista (which I'm not sure if I can count on to be completely accurate). Even the Pobjoy Mint no longer has the coins in their online encyclopaedia. It's not a silver coin, its value pretty much comes from how rarely it's available. Is a coin like this really likely to be counterfeited?

If I got these coins, I'd want to get them graded. Would a TPG even be able to detect a fake for such an obscure coin, especially when precious metals aren't involved? I only see one instance of a coin from this series being graded by either NGC or PCGS. What steps could they take to verify the coins?

Would the Pobjoy mint still have information on their international packaging of a 16 year old coin set? That seems unlikely to me, but maybe I'm underestimating them.

I guess what gets me is that if the coin was removed from its packaging and wasn't coming from China, I'd have bought the coin in an instant. How would I even begin to try and verify that a coin like that is legit, even after I have it in my hands?