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 Replies: 15 / Views: 2,368 |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10982 Posts |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11880 Posts |
Seems low in a world where top coins sell at the $10 million level.
IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.com |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
4944 Posts |
Edited by Canadian-Banknotes
04/01/2017 11:01 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
 United States
10982 Posts |
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Seems low in a world where top coins sell at the $10 million level. It is low. The market is weaker (even at the top) than many people thought. Quote:Less than the PR-62 example that sold for nearly 3.9m (after BP) in April of 2008. https://coins.ha.com/itm/proof-earl...auction-info Yes, the market was much stronger in 2008. The $3.3m coin I linked might have brought $6 to $7 million in 2008. |
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CCF Advertiser
United States
1533 Posts |
This is the same coin that got a $10MM bid and failed to meet the reserve last year. I guess the people that had bid it up from $4-$10MM and didn't win it did not feel like coming back this time. Some of them probably regret it now. Pogue paid $4MM for it.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3479 Posts |
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Yes, the market was much stronger in 2008. I was absent from the coin market in 08. Yet I find it crazy that there was demand for collectable coins at the height of the financial crisis. Even gold tanked when Lehman crashed. The dip was short lived but I'm still amazed that so many on this forum suggest that the premiums for coins peaked in 08. I wish I would have been following at the time. |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
17884 Posts |
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This is the same coin that got a $10MM bid and failed to meet the reserve last year. No that was the PF-68 Watters/Childs coin. this coin that just sold was the PF-65 Dexter specimen. Edited by Conder101
04/03/2017 04:39 am
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10982 Posts |
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Yet I find it crazy that there was demand for collectable coins at the height of the financial crisis. Even gold tanked when Lehman crashed. @MikeF: 2006-2008 was the most recent coin market peak, not 2008 by itself. Also, the height of financial crisis was in 2009. The first three quarters in 2008 weren't that bad and many people did not even know we were in a recession at that time. The fourth quarter of '08 was when the carnage hit. Gold did not tank in 2008. It took a dip in the third quarter but was strong right into August of '08 and was back to $900 by December when when most other asset classes were heading into a canyon. The current bear market in coins didn't really start until 2012 (IMO) when gold (and silver) were heading down while equities and real estate were heading up. I was heavily invested in gold, silver and coins from 2007 through 2013. For better or for worse.  |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
I try not to even look at those. If I can't have one in my collection, why bother.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5854 Posts |
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Yet I find it crazy that there was demand for collectable coins at the height of the financial crisis. I think there were people looking for alternative places to put money since the largest assets of most households, housing and stocks through retirement plans, were not doing well. Coins had been going up for about a decade with some areas like key dates and gold having done especially well. Gold had been going up for a while and crossing $1000 for the first time ever in March 2008. So I don't think it would be too hard to market coins as good, safe investments in a climate when the alternatives are bad. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3479 Posts |
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I think there were people looking for alternative places to put money since the largest assets of most households, housing and stocks through retirement plans, were not doing well. Coins had been going up for about a decade with some areas like key dates and gold having done especially well. Gold had been going up for a while and crossing $1000 for the first time ever in March 2008. So I don't think it would be too hard to market coins as good, safe investments in a climate when the alternatives are bad. I think coins are more of a trailing indicator as BP pointed out. Just to clarify, I was referring to collectable coins, not bullion prices. It makes sense that asset prices including collectable coins might have seen inflated valuations leading up to the financial crisis. Back then most people were using their homes as atm machines. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
4944 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5854 Posts |
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I think coins are more of a trailing indicator as BP pointed out. I am not sure whether coins are more of a leading or trailing indicator. I do know that asset prices can decouple from fundamentals and continue to rise under sheer momentum. This happens towards the end of a long bull market. Like in 1999-2000 when people were paying increasing multiples of earnings if there were any or in 2005-2006 when people paid increasing multiples of household income or annual rent for homes. Quote:
Just to clarify, I was referring to collectable coins, not bullion prices. Numismatic coins and bullion prices are to some degree joined at the hip. A great deal of the market is semi-numismatic where the melt value is a significant portion of the value. That is the direct effect of bullion on coin values but I think there is an indirect effect that can affect coins where the melt value is an insignificant of the value. Many coin dealers deal in both coins and bullion. When bullion is going up, they are going to make more than their usual margins. Flush with cash, they are in a much better position to buy your rare coins and vice versa when bullion is headed lower. Many coin collectors buy both rare coins and bullion. Making the decision to buy that coin on your wishlist is much easier when your bullion holding have double or triple in value. |
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Valued Member
United States
321 Posts |
Hey, a weak coin market equals cheaper coins for us to buy, right?
Let's be thankful as collectors that the market isn't like the market in 1989.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3479 Posts |
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That is the direct effect of bullion on coin values but I think there is an indirect effect that can affect coins where the melt value is an insignificant of the value. Many coin dealers deal in both coins and bullion. When bullion is going up, they are going to make more than their usual margins. Flush with cash, they are in a much better position to buy your rare coins and vice versa when bullion is headed lower. Many coin collectors buy both rare coins and bullion. Making the decision to buy that coin on your wishlist is much easier when your bullion holding have double or triple in value.
You answered my question before I typed it. Your logic makes sense. |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10982 Posts |
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Replies: 15 / Views: 2,368 |
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Posted 04/01/2017 10:19 pm
