Why Is Pricing So Far Off On 1796 Draped Bust Large Cents?

The demand for problem-free coins (or at least mostly problem-free coins) will always far exceed the supply when it comes to early copper. 1796 in general is a challenging year, there's not a single variety which is less than an R3, and several R5 or higher. In addition, the year was split between the Liberty Cap and Draped Bust design.

A similar situation occurs for 1809 as well in terms of "theoretical" price and availability vs. "actual" price and availability.

Keep in mind as well that PCGS price guide values will always be for the most common variety for a given date, unless otherwise stated. To get a more accurate read on the price, you need to determine the variety, and then search for past auction results for that particular variety, keeping in mind that TPG grading is much less strict than EAC grading in all but the lowest grades. (In other words, don't compare price results for a coin PCGS graded VF35 vs. a coin EAC graded VF35.)

Then there is availability. Although the official mintage figures are three times higher for the 96 bust than the 96 cap, if you go to a coin show and look for them you will find about five caps or more for every bust. And Paralyse is right about the rarities. The rarity estimates have come down over the years, but most of the varieties for the 96 bust are scarce or rare. Back when I started collecting them there was only one variety that was rated less than R-4 and probably half of them were R-5 or higher. If you use the maximum populations for each variety and rarity it works out to about a total of 4,800 pieces still in existence in ANY grade. Then of course the variety collectors absorb multiple specimens leaving even fewer available. I have 24 pieces, and that works out to 1/2 of 1% of the entire surviving population.

Prices for early copper are high because you have a very dedicated group of collectors who are working on sets by die variety and even die state. (Die state = Tracking the growth of cracks as they spread over the surface of a given variety. General die wear figures into this also.) That means that many coins are taken off the market. Since many of these collectors are not worried about their next meal, these coins are in strong hands.

Things get much tougher if you are looking for coins with good color and hard surfaces. If you are really interested in a 1796 large cent in Good-4, you will be in for a shock. Even using EAC grading, which is ultra conservative, you won't get much with a piece in Good-4. A "commercial Fine" won't look like much either. An EAC Fine might look nice, but you will pay at least "commercial VF" money for it.

Here is the only 1796 large cent I handled when I was dealer. I think I sold it for $1,900 almost ten years ago, which some people thought was too much. I'd pay that for it now.

cipster, depending on the variety, and how nice of a VG10 it is, you saved anywhere from $100 to $1000 off retail price, I'd say you bought it for wholesale price, so you did well.

jerseyben, all the choice EAC G/VG sits in collections right now. The nice stuff almost never comes up for sale, just the scudzy stuff, and people ask a fortune for it.

Your lucky, typically Hertages just discards the old flips, even those with long and important provenances.