Graded Vs BU Ungraded Gold, Silver, Platinum Eagles

If I were looking to purchase any of the American eagle bullion coins, I would probably look to buy them either raw, graded 69 if priced right, or proof if it's the gold eagles. There are a few upsides to a 70 graded coin but they aren't all that great or important. One is that you may get a coin that has one less small inconspicuous mark than a 69. If you are building a registry set, you will get full points. Maybe for some people, you might get a ego boost to be able to say that you have something that is "perfect". The downsides are in my opinion much greater and more significant. One is the coin can develop imperfections like spotting from the minting process or improper storage which will render it no longer a 70. Then there is probably relatively modest if any price appreciation. Among bullion coins minted in the last several years, most have a plurality or majority graded 70 and can total in the thousands or tens of thousands. With those populations, I think it is more than enough to satisfy all the demand. Then there is the premium you have to pay for a 70. For the same amount of money, you could perhaps 2-3x more raw coins that look almost as good. IMHO, the graded 70 premium is not worth it to me.

In the past if I were looking to buy gold in the form a AGE, I would have chosen the BU version over the proof. At recent shows, the premium on proof gold eagles seems to have fallen to the point that they at almost the same price of a BU AGE. The downside of the proof version now is virtually the same as the BU version. The upside is that the premium may expand in the future leading to greater profits and you get a coin that has superior eye appeal.

For your second question, I think they will hold there value better in an environment where bullion prices are moving lower. The premiums as a percentage of the melt value tend to but not always increase when bullion prices are moving lower and vice versa. It is much easier for someone to justify paying 100% over the melt value when silver is $5 than when it is $50. I looked at the auction prices of silver and 1oz gold eagles roughly dated 2006-2010. I chose those dates because the prices in 70 are most similar to ones minted in recent years and they have some pricing data from before the top in bullion in 2011 so that I can see how they might behave in different market cycles. For silver eagles, they are roughly at the same price as they were 8-10 years ago with a small increase in 2011. That increase was no way near the 2-4x that silver enjoyed. The 1oz gold eagles are higher than they were 8-10 years ago but that is mostly due to the gold price. The premiums as a percentage of melt value appear to be lower over that time period and about the same as they were back at their peak in 2011.

They clearly were wrong on that prediction

Ok this is what I know and have seen-

First the risk-

I try and NOT buy graded bullion coins of any kind. Way too much risk with silver getting toning, milk spots or other defects.

I own ONE MS 70 Somalia Gold elephant and that was the only one to treat myself.

I will NOT buy any graded bullion coins, MS69 or 70, wayyyy tooo much risk.

IF I was to take on the risk, it would only to buy MS 69 gold coins and PF69 gold coins. The manner I would buy these in is IF I can buy them at auction. Many times you can get a slabbed gold proof or bullion coin at LESS than a mints offering price or even a dealers Buy It Now price.

IF you get a 70 eagle, you want to make sure its gold and that the mintage is a record setting key number eagle. This will give you the cushion in case something happens to your coin, such as brown/copper spots or toning (btw I like the toning effects on gold coins over silver coins).

Overall, lower spot prices will impact almost ALL coins despite grades and low mintages number but the rarer the coin, the lower its mintage, will give you somewhat of a cushion and there will be a strong area of collectors looking to snap up those key year coins so that does give you a bit of a floor. Thats where the demand picture comes in.

Whatever you do, please stay away from buying graded bullion SILVER eagles. If you have the urge to buy graded proof eagles, stick to the 69 grade and try and get them at auction.