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 Replies: 11 / Views: 2,270 |
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New Member
Canada
39 Posts |
Hi guys
Are the prices in Vol two supposed to represent Retail prices? I know they are optimistic prices but I just want to clarify the publisher's standard meaning.
Thx
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
3733 Posts |
yes inflated retail prices..
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New Member
 Canada
39 Posts |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1571 Posts |
Very inflated. I don't know why they do that. But if you visit any coin shop and buy a coin, you can usually walk away with it for 10% less than the sticker price and another 30% less than issue price from the mint. That is, unless it's a new release or one of the few coins that even hold their value.
When I started collecting NCLT, I bought based on those prices. Don't do that. In fact, maybe hold off on NCLT unless you plan on never selling them. But who knows, maybe in 100 years, when virtually everything is electronic, we won't have physical currency and these coins will be collectable, along with present and past circulation coins & bills. If I'm wrong, let me know in 2118, and you'll win a prize.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2366 Posts |
Quote:
Why are they inflated? Because the market dropped out from underneath them. As they are supposed to represent trend over time they take a while to catch up. To further complicate things there was a change of ownership in there that appears to have delayed price updating by a couple of years. The 2018 Vol 2 is the first significant price adjustment I've seen to reflect 'the new reality'. However, primarily on the older issues because of the previously mentioned trend over time approach. It takes a few years to establish which prices are going to drop and by how much and which will be the odd exception that doesn't or (gasp!) actually rises. |
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New Member
Canada
39 Posts |
You would think however, that if that is their main expertise, they should be able to update the pricing in a year or two.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2366 Posts |
Charlton is only published annually and figure things are locked in 6 months to a year before hand because of the time for the publishing process. Also, they're not going to react 100% to every single, individual sale. They're going to give you a trend over time, figure 3 years minimum. So you're up to about a five year lag already. Vol 2 has only been published for 8 years now. Again, think of it like the stock market. Any individual day a stock may jump up, drop or not do much of anything. Within that day you can look at the high, low, volume of trade at each price point etc. You can pick any one of those price points and it's valid, but only for that particular instant in time and between that particular buyer and seller. Now you need to pick a single number, a year of so prior to the publishing date that will be deemed to be representative for the subsequent year. You're probably going to err on the side of caution. And that number is only going to be loosely related to 'reality'. Now consider that the coin market is much much smaller than the stock market. Transactions are much fewer and farther between. And there is no central clearing system like the TSX that will provide you all the raw data. What's the margin of error on that number now? It's a rough guide and that's all it is and can be. Don't try to read more into it than it can support. Don't expect simple rules like "If you pay more than 30% of Trends you're an idiot" to actually work. Personally, yes we've picked up a few coins at 30% of book. But we've also been outbid on others when we've bid 80-100%. The market is complex and always moving. In addition, with different selling platforms and large #s of releases it has become significantly more fragmented than it was 20 years ago. <end rant :-)>
p.s. Just for clarity, I have nothing to do with Charlton other than buying their catalogue every year like many other collectors :-)
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2408 Posts |
I bought the 6th Edition (2016) and I was totally blown away by the size (and quality) of this superb catalogue. It must have taken a lot of work to put this together. But I do not rely on Charlton for pricing. It might be OK for insurance purposes or to give the collector a "feel good" sentiment but I can randomly pick any coin and find it on ebay BIN for 10-20% less, sometimes more. Even cheaper at auctions. Obviously the grade might affect prices, perhaps if the coin is certified. Just for fun I looked up the 2007 Crystal Snowflake Aquamarine... priced at $500 in PR-68, is currently on ebay BIN for $229 NGC GRADED PF-68 and free shipping. $229 is in US dollars, but still nowhere near the quoted value. The Charlton catalogue is great for looking up mintage, technical details, composition, historical information, pictures, etc... but for realistic pricing look elsewhere. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2366 Posts |
On the other hand, try getting a 2007 dated Alpine Skiing Petro-Canada coin for just $30! Yes, I know, the exception that proves the rule.... :-)
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2408 Posts |
Yes indeed, it can go both ways. All the reasons for not paying too much attention to Charlton's pricing.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1373 Posts |
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On the other hand, try getting a 2007 dated Alpine Skiing Petro-Canada coin for just $30! How true. One of the many 'errors' I've found in Charlton listings. They list the 2008 'Alpine' as a 'mule', but the 2007 is actually the lesser minted and harder to find copy. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2366 Posts |
The 2008 is actually the mule. But, as you say, this is the one case where that makes it less valuable rather than more.
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Replies: 11 / Views: 2,270 |
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Posted 02/01/2018 8:46 pm
