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 Replies: 43 / Views: 4,013 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3156 Posts |
A local auction house is having an estate sale that ends on Friday. There is a Morgan dollar in this auction that sold at Great Collections two years ago. Price paid was over $26K without buyers premium. Right now the bid price is $10K. What price would you realistically pay if you wanted to send this coin back to GC to be resold? How many of you have tried this? |
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21786 Posts |
For GC, it would be an entirely new deal, and they would consider a buy and sell price all over again. That's business.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
5666 Posts |
Auction sold prices on the same coin can vary greatly over a few years, so you'd have to give yourself a wide margin to minimize the risk. But it would be worth considering since the number of buyers willing to pay that much at a local estate auction will be limited. Hard to say what I'd pay without knowing the coin.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
3156 Posts |
The coin is a 1883S MS65 PCGS
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2843 Posts |
Auctions are weird like that. Did markets change? Was the 26K an outlier? Personally, I would not get myself involved in such. If you spent 11K on a coin and then sold it again in auction and it went for the same 11k, you'd be losing a nice chunk of dough in fees.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
94367 Posts |
Must agree. Have you thoroughly researched auction records for similar examples?
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
36724 Posts |
It's a roll of the dice. I would rather buy a bunch or cheaper coins that I can flip easier and make just as much profit.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5666 Posts |
Risky business. It's a conditional rarity, and looking at the PCGS TrueView images, I think it barely makes 65. The value drops dramatically any lower. The PCGS site says this coin is part of a registry set--is it part of a collection of coins in the estate?
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Valued Member
United States
318 Posts |
Putting my analyst hat on for a second, I'd see if you can look at the bid history for when that coin sold for $26k. If it was a very active bid with a lot of people who drove up the price, you might have something here with your plan... if you can get it on the cheap.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2023 Posts |
Quote:
Putting my analyst hat on for a second, I'd see if you can look at the bid history for when that coin sold for $26k. If it was a very active bid with a lot of people who drove up the price, you might have something here with your plan... if you can get it on the cheap. First, it is important that we're talking about the actual same coin (i.e. by certification number), and not just any old 1883-S Morgan PCGS MS-65 because eye appeal varies and impacts value greatly. Presuming that is the case, here is the coin in question. It got 42 bids from 8 different bidders, only 3 of which were active in the last 10 days of this 3-week auction. That doesn't seem like a very high number to me, but I don't usually track those kinds of numbers and it takes only 2 active/interested bidders to drive the price up, though only one bid was placed in the last 3 days. For an auction ending on Friday, we're already down to the wire, compared to the auction at GC. That could mean the price is already pretty much settled like it was at GC, there are snipers waiting to pounce at the last minute like typically happens on ebay, or it could mean nothing at all. If it were me, I might expect to take a loss from the $26k at GC, since final activity was so low. And with various other fees involved, I wouldn't want to spend any more than, say, $20k if I wanted to see any kind of profit at all. But it's not me and I don't have that kind of budget in the first place. Edited by Alpha2814
04/03/2019 11:55 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3156 Posts |
It is part of a collection being sold
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2843 Posts |
Quote:
It's a conditional rarity, and looking at the PCGS TrueView images, I think it barely makes 65.  Being a conditional rarity would kill it for me too. If 2 or more people needed a 65 for their set in the past GC auction, who's to say that even 1 person will need a 65 in the upcoming auction. I am no expert on grading, but if a potential buyer even suspects that the coin is overgraded, they will avoid it. Also, if the auction that you are buying from is going to be reported, the history of this coin will show what it sold for and that would likely harm its future potential. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3156 Posts |
Doubt an estate auction would report the sale but you never know.
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
I mean this in the nicest way possible, but this is one of those things where if you have to ask you shouldn't be doing it. Unless you are rich that is a lot of money to put on the line and you have to understand even if it works that money will be tied up for like 6-8 weeks minimum before you have actually money again and not just a valuable coin.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3156 Posts |
would not qualify as rich but I have invested in stocks for many years so I am quite familiar with risk and reward. I doubt the coin would sell again for the price it sold for 2 years ago. I am pretty sure the bid will go up from the current $10K it is right now. But if it stayed at the current price I am pretty sure you could make a few bucks on a resale. Could not find any sales of this grade and year for that low of price. Still not sure I want to try it but am thinking about it.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
5666 Posts |
Just another piece of information: The same coin was sold twice at GC in 2017, the first time for $21k. It wouldn't be shocking if it sold the next time at GC in the teens. But I agree, it seems unlikely that it would drop down to the 10-12k range.
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Replies: 43 / Views: 4,013 |
Posted 04/03/2019 09:42 am
