Assigning Value To Die Varieties.

A recent thread about a 1909S Lincoln Cent with a rather nice but common repunched mintmark (the S over horizontal S) evoked thought
on my part in writing an aritcle about premium value and die varieties. What follows is that article. Enjoy.

I have often been asked how I come up with values for doubled dies and repunched mintmarks. After all, I am the one who wrote the site https://www.coppercoins.com , so I must have some refined and specific process by which I value coins, right? Well, it's not so easy. It would be nice if some 'formula' worked on all die varieties, but because of a number of considerations to be made during the valuation process, a cut and dry simple formula will not work.

A number of different criteria come into play when associating dollar values with die varieties. They include, but are not necessarily limited to:

1. Whether the die variety is common or scarce.
2. The level of visibility (thus common interest) of the die variety.
3. Whether the die variety is on a common date or key date coin.
4. Whether the particular issue has grade rarity.
5. Whether there are similar varieties and whether they have measurable market history.

Scarcity of Die Varieties
Often when a new die variety is reported, it remains the sole known example for a number of weeks or months after it is first examined.
Even while this may be the case, the die state of the die at the time the coin was struck tells a lot about what to expect to see regarding scarcity of that particular die.

A die state study performed in 1989 by Delma K. Romines suggested that dies mint in the hundreds of thousands of coins each as a rule, considering the die is not prematurely retired due to damage. He also summized the amount of wear striking coins imparts onto the die over the die's life, and named particular steps in this wear we now refer to as 'die state'.

The study notes that new, perfect dies without any wear can strike fewer than 2% of the total expected number of coins before exhibiting wear in the form of 'die flow'. Die flow occurs when misaligned molecules of steel on a die's face work themsleves loose from the matrix and flow outward toward the edge of the design with each strike. The amount of die flow exhibited on a coin notes the 'die state' of the coin, thus also gives us an idea of how many coins were struck by that die before the one being examined.

If a new die variety discovery is of a later die state, scientific reason states that tens of thousands of coins had to have been struck before the discovery piece, thus there would likely be far more examples in circulation or in rolls or bags. In many cases this turns out to be the case - those die varieties known in late die state or very late die state with many stage markers are usually far more common and are easier to locate than those only known up to mid-die state.

In assigning value to a new die variety the die state of the discovery coin is evaluated and affected by consideration of how many other examples are likely to exist. I generally am much more conservative in assigning value to new die varieties of later die states than those in earlier die states.

Visibility of Die Varieties
How well a die variety can be seen with either no magnification or modest magnification often plays a role in how value is assigned to that die variety. One of the main reasons for this is because good visibility (obvious die attributes) makes more collectors interested in obtaining an example of the die. While specialists are interested in the die varieties that are obvious as well as those that require higher magnification or more specific knowledge of the design to detect, generalists only want the obvious die varieties. With a higher demand, naturally value is higher.

In addition, those die varieties that are easier to spot occur far less frequently than the less obvious die varieties. This in itself makes them less common when comparing all the different dies together, but again, die state must be taken into consideration.

Die varieties that are quite obvious but are known in very late die state are easier to obtain, thus less valuable than those with similar visibility, but as a general rule, most die varieties with better visibility are worth more than most with lesser visibility.

Date and Mint of Issue
Of course the value of a 'normal' coin for a die variety has to have some bearing on the value of a die variety, but something very interesting occurs with the value of die varieties as compared to normal coins of the same issue. On common date coins the values of die varieties are on a steeper curve to normal coin values as compared to semi-key or key date coins. This is mainly because the value of the semi-key or key date coins is high enough just because of the issue, most people are unwilling to pay steep premium values for the issue with a die variety.

A case example compares the value of the 1917 doubled die obverse cent with the value of a 1909S RPM#2 (S/horiz. S) cent. Using the October, 2008 issue of Coins magazine as a price guide, the value of a 1917 cent in VF is $2. The value of the same issue in AU is $13.50. The value of the doubled die in VF is $375, which is 187.5 times the value of the regular issue in the same grade. An AU example of the same doubled die is valued at $1,750, or 129.6 times the value of the normal issue. If we take the values of a 1909S cent in the same grades and multiply them times the same factors, we reach the following numbers: In VF ($170 X 187.5 = $31,875) and in AU ($265 X 129.6 = $34,344). Of course the die variety is not worth anywhere near that kind of money. In VF, it is listed at $190 and in AU it is listed at $325, a mere fraction of the multiplier associtated with the 1917 doubled die.

Of course more factors than a simple multiplier are in effect here. This example illustrates how simply multiplying values of coins across the board might work with some more common date examples of like visibility and grade, but definitely does not work when comaring semi-key and key date coins to more common date coins.

Grade Rarity and Die Varieties
Somewhat more difficult to explain and understand is how grade rarity in an issue can have an effect on assigning value to die varieties. Issues that are common in lower grade and much more scarce in higher grades have a sharp curve as the grade level of that issue increases. Take, for instance the 1931S Lincoln Cent as compared to the 1926S Lincoln Cent. The 1931S is rather common in most grades, while the 1926S is increasingly scarce in ascending grades, and altogether rare in higher uncirculated grades. The values and curves for the values of these issues show their rarity.

A 1931S in VG lists at $124, and in AU at $148, for an increase of about 20%. A 1926S in VG lists for $10, while the same issue in AU is $72, for an increase of over 700%. In uncirculated grades the curve is even more steep.

Die varieties follow a very general and basic rule with regard to premium value over the value of regular issues when grade rarity is concerned. The scarcer the grade of the coin the more the coin is worth, but the less premium die varieties will command. As value increases for the regular issue, the percentage increase for premium in die varieties decreases.

A very nice repunched mintmark for a 1926S cent might have a value of $25 in VG (250% premium), but would be tough to move in AU for over $100 (a 40% premium). In MS65RD where a normal issue coin has a value of nearly $100,000, premium value for the same repunched mintmark would be doubtful.

A very nice repunched mintmark for a 1931S cent might sell for $200 in VG (a 62% premium) while the same die variety in AU could sell for $250 (a 70% premium). Premium value percentages would decrease through the mint state grades, but would still be present up to and including MS65RD.

Market History
One of the more important clues to assigning value to newly discovered die varieties is to examine the marketplace for other very similar die varities. If the other similar die variety is somewhat similar in perceived scarcity, variety visibility, issue scarcity (mintage), and grade scarcity in higher grades, its values can play an important role in assigning values to the newly discovered dies. Much care must be given in this analysis, however, because known die varieties would have to exhibit very close characteristics in all respects before their value could be realistically considered. If one part of the criteria is different, the known die variety and its market information become far less useful.

Summary
Assigning values to newly discovered die varieties is not a simple matter of pulling numbers out of the sky. Careful consideration must be given to a wide assortment of criteria, and often a number of variables are incomplete or missing. More so than not values must be adjusted slightly after examples become available on the market and real transactions take place which create real data that was previously unavailable.

While a number of different criteria are used to carefully assign values to die varieties, just like with other aspects of life and society the rule of value in coins is not always governed by scientific method. With this as the case, all the tools available cannot guarantee value assignment to be completely accurate, but we can get very close if we are careful.