I think the existential threat is FAKES. The better they get, and the more numerous they get, the more this hobby is in peril, and I don't see any way to stop it.
Hopefully portable XRF machines will become more affordable. I imagine getting the exact metal composition will be difficult and not worth it except for really expensive pieces. I may be wrong though. Maybe counterfeiters already do that.
We keep having this debate, but it sure would be nice to have some DATA that would actually tell us how things are currently trending: 1. Number of ebay coin transactions by year for the last 10 years 2. Trend in number of lots sold and gross revenue for the 20 largest auction houses on the planet etc., etc.
We all have anecdotes from our personal experience that shape what we think is going on and how it will evolve in the future. I am not, and never have been an ANA member, I have been to only 2 shows in the last 20 years, and I never spend more than $5 at my LCS (I only buy coin supplies and world coins out of the 20 cent bin). Based on those behaviors, many people would think I am not much of a collector. But I am actually a more active collector right now than I have been for over 45 years.
@hfjacinto, looking at all that great camera gear, I hope you also had something pretty good in the wine glass
@tdziema brings up lots of good points, but there are limitation in just using one source ( ebay as an example). For years I would go every 2 weeks to the local coin shop. I never went on ebay as the LCS had everything I wanted. Now one LCS is closed and the other doesn't have the items I'm looking for so I have purchased some items from ebay. But I think ebay prices are too high so I am always looking to other sources (and since I started a currency/notes collection) I found another coin shop that has better prices than ebay, so my money went from LCS>Ebay>Web Coin Shop. If you picked purchases on just one of these sources you can say for example...
LCS > My purchases have slowed down a lot Ebay> I purchased a few coins and then stopped Web Coin Shop> Actively purchasing for collection
The realm of collecting is more than 1 venue. The closest we can get to how the hobby is doing is picking a neutral source. For example, PCGS is a public company, looking at their revenues for the last 3 years, they have been pretty flat (bu 2019 was much higher than 2018 and higher than 2017), so that means that people are still slabbing coins. According to their annual reports, 2019 was their best yeat ever. In the end, I think that the death of coins, is probably premature:
In case anyone wants to read the annual reports, this in my opinion is the closest we can get to a non biased answer as to how the coin collecting market is doing.
All such discussions about the future of coins is a waste of time. Coin collecting is a dying item. The solution is simple. Send ALL your coins to me and I'll suffer for everyone. Imagine not to worry about ups and downs in coin values anymore. I'll do all the worrying for you and at no cost. Just send me everything.
There will always be the numismatic die-hards out there, who collect ancient, medieval, hammered and milled coins, that are more than a few hundred years old. Value and condition is very often of less importance to this type of collector; what is important, is the coin itself.
As an avid collector of antiques in addition to numismatics I don't think that the continued existence of physical coinage or currency really plays much of a role in the health of the hobby. I am a collector of antique and vintage postcards and their disappearance from usage in recent decades as email and text messages became prevalent has not hurt their collectability from what I can see. There are still hundreds of thousands of listings for postcards on ebay and thousands are sold every day. There are diehard collectors and dealers and I don't see that changing as people continue to enjoy history and try to preserve a bit of the past. From what I've heard the pandemic has been good for coin collecting with online sales through the roof and lots of newbie stuff getting sold out of coin dealers inventories.
@hfj, my comment on ebay may not have been understood correctly.
In my opinion the best single indicator of the health of the hobby would be the total number of ebay coin transactions each day/month/year. My guess is that ebay accounts for over 50% of the transactions in the U.S.(i.e., that it is at least equal to all the other auction houses and LCS combined in number of transactions). But probably only ebay knows that figure, and I doubt they would share it.
The number of coins being slabbed is also of interest, but that only pertains to coins worth slabbing, whereas there are an enormous number of transactions on ebay that don't meet that threshold.
Quote: The number of coins being slabbed is also of interest, but that only pertains to coins worth slabbing, whereas there are an enormous number of transactions on ebay that don't meet that threshold.
Well there are a lot of coins that are slabbed that aren't worth slabbing
Watch "How cash is becoming a thing of the past" and jump to the 25th minute for more info on: Tidar Wald's take on how demonetizing money in poor countries (like India) is doing the population a great service by hooking them up to banks/credit cards. Better Than Cash Alliance (under the guise of the UN but financially supported by VISA, Microsoft, Paypal & other companies)
Numismatics will never become extinct, but it is quite possible the number of people pursuing the hobby could decline greatly. The net result would be a LOT of the people looking to "get rich quick" will disappear. Prices will fall, possibly to a fairly large extent, on all but the truely rare items. I think "grade rarity" hype will decline. The number of dealers will decline but inventories will increase and become more diverse. The hobby will return to a more pure collector and scholarly basis.
I agree with your position "Condor101" but fail to see how
Quote: it is quite possible the number of people pursuing the hobby could decline greatly.
I suppose it is possible but I rather doubt it. Let me give you a little analogy: About 20 years ago, I worked in Nuclear Medicine. (This is a diagnostic technology that uses radioactive isotopes to scan how organs function). As a Nuclear Medicine Tech, I was constantly told (many times) that our field was endangered: Nunclear Medicine technology would be quickly phased out by the much superior MRI scans (Magnetic Resonance Imaging gave highly accurate 3-D images of both anatomy & physiology). This new technology involved absolutely NO radiation to the patient and everyone said it would replace C.T. scanning in Radiology as well. Did either prediction occur? No: they seem to reside independently & yet supplement doctor diagnosis. Hmmm... That's exactly how I feel about all this "chatter about going cashless" (mainly generated from BTCA propaganda). Cash will always reside amongst digital commerce.
Coins have been around a LONG time & I find it really hard to believe that our collective humanity will abandon the hobby (even in China). Why would the average person completely right the hobby off -just because coins are no longer used in a particular nation? Aren't many of the RCM (& other national mints) selling off non-circulating coins for big premiums? Surely the hobby will experience hot & cold cycles (just as the market has similar ebbs/flows of interest) but will people (who like to collect things) really abandon the hobby? I realize we've had a pandemic but I also suspect the global population will continue to grow despite this minor setback.
Quote: I think "grade rarity" hype will decline.
- it may be true for coins but it is alive & well within the banknotes hobby - I've seen many collectors bid up GEM notes for 3-5X BV of UNC so seems like the high grade mania is alive & well for this sector.
To ressurrect an old topic, I'd like to add that since Covid started I have been thinking about the direction numismatics is going a bit of thought myself.
I've been noticing that there is an enormous rise in NCLT and bullion coinage mints around the world are producing. I used to buy some series of them, until like 2007-2008, when they were sold at face value from the mint here in Turkey. There were three, maximum four series and less than three coins every year. After 2009, the mint started to charge more than the face value, started making less appealing designs and flooded the market with series and new coins every month, realising it's making a nice profit. Back in 70s, just like many other countries, we had only a few NCLT or circulating commemoratives minted.
Having said all of those, I've been seeing there is a huge amount of modern comemmoratives, both intended and not intended for circulation. every time I travel abraod, I am surprised by finding out so any different coins in my common change. Another thing is, we're still using cash in smaller transactions here in Turkey but with the last 5-7 years, we've seen such a huge increase in using cards for every kind of transaction, including smaller ones. I have noticed young people here (below 30, for example) are spensing almost entirely with a card, no matter if it is a .50c purchase.
I remember stamp collecting has gone a similar period before it has become what it is today. Young pepole are losing interest in coins, specially modern ones. Whats your opinions about that?
Quote: I have noticed young people here (below 30, for example) are spensing almost entirely with a card, no matter if it is a .50c purchase.
Funny. A lady in front of me at the pharmacy this week owed $0.28 for her prescription (insurance is weird here). She paid with her card. 28 cents on plastic. I guess it happens.
Quote: I think the existential threat is FAKES. The better they get, and the more numerous they get, the more this hobby is in peril, and I don't see any way to stop it.
That said, there would probably still be people interested in the silly NCLT items for their subject - people who collect everything about (say) Mickey Mouse, so they'd buy any new Mickey Mouse item on the market that they could afford, regardless of if it's a coin or not. OTOH I'm not sure if those items would keep their legal tender status in a world where most cash is digital anyway. Would there be people collecting the more normal coinage? Maybe. For the more common items the supply would probably be far ahead of demand for a long time to come; and by the time this stops being true (if ever), approximately everyone could just 3D-print a nigh-indistinguishable fake anyway.
For what it's worth, over here in Moscow it's still common to see a place not accept cards - weirdly enough this includes most coin stores I've been to! But if a place does accept cards it's usually a lot more convenient to pay with a card: no need to wait for two minutes (times however many people in queue) of counting cash.
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I may be wrong though. Maybe counterfeiters already do that.
Posted 06/08/2020 07:41 am
