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 Replies: 528 / Views: 41,914 |
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Moderator
 United States
190135 Posts |
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At least if it goes ahead they have chosen different words unlike the UK where they just changed the date!  Quote:
84th $100 ... No Letters today!  Quote:
1988 Australian Bicentenary - looks like this coin has led a sheltered life! Something positive then!  |
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Pillar of the Community
 Australia
1366 Posts |
85th $100No Letters again!  2019 JC effigy  1984 MOR - Nice condition   2001 International Year of Volunteers - nice condition   Need 3 more Letters!
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Moderator
United States
190135 Posts |
87 will produce! Yes, I said 87, not 86, so you have one more miss. That is my prediction.   |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5255 Posts |
So, how many coins of each letter were minted? I think a statistical analysis should give us an idea of how many need to be searched before you get a complete set.
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
1616 Posts |
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So, how many coins of each letter were minted? I think a statistical analysis should give us an idea of how many need to be searched before you get a complete set.
One would assume they would mint the same number for each letter otherwise that would be really mean spirited for the wee kiddies collecting them.  Imagine if 80% could never be completed because the letter X had a mintage of 20% compared to all the other letters! Actually, that's the sort of wicked thing I would do!  Lucky I'm not in charge of mintage numbers. My main concern with uknowns for statistical analysis would be potential uneven distribution of letters between states. Getting those figures is, I think, impossible.  |
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
1366 Posts |
Quote:87 will produce! Yes, I said 87, not 86, so you have one more miss. That is my prediction. I hope you're right jbuck!  |
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
1366 Posts |
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So, how many coins of each letter were minted? As far as I'm aware the Royal Australian Mint hasn't released that information yet. |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5255 Posts |
@David Graham, yes strictly speaking that is correct, but if we assume a uniform distribution, we can get a minimum number.
But, as @coaster indicates, we don't have any numbers at all yet, so we might think that we cannot come up with any sensible answer.
However, it just occurred to me that with @coaster's noodling, we now know the total number of letters to be found per thousand coins searched (or noodled as you say-I can't get used to that word), so that gives me a method to come up with some sort of answer, assuming uniform distribution.
@Coaster, how many letters in total have you found so far?
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
1366 Posts |
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@Coaster, how many letters in total have you found so far? ... just did a quick tally and it came to 71. |
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
1366 Posts |
86th $100Another Letter but one I have! 2019 A to Z - 'O' for Outback  2019 AUS - 'U' privy mark  Still need 3!
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5255 Posts |
Ok, you have a 90% probability of finding at least one needed letter in the next 19 letters you find, and at the current rate you will need to search another 2300 coins to find 19 letters. This assumes that the letters are evenly distributed in your area-that is, the chance of finding the missing letters is the same as the chance of finding all the other letters.
If you need 2 letters, you need to find 29 letters to get to the 90% threshold, and if you needed a single letter, you would need to find 59 letters get to the 90% threshold.
To find all three you can't just add these totals, but as an approximation you will need another 110 letters to be 90% sure of find the missing three. So that is at least another 13,000 coins to noodle.
Maybe you need to get larger bags of them!
This number is strictly based on probabilities given your current find rate and assumes an even distribution. I certainly cannot prove the assumption. Of course, it is possible that you find all the missing 3 in your next bag but I would not bet on it!
Edited by oriole
10/09/2020 06:07 am
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Pillar of the Community
Australia
1366 Posts |
Thanks for crunching the numbers oriole, your input is much appreciated. Quote:
To find all three you can't just add these totals, but as an approximation you will need another 110 letters to be 90% sure of find the missing three. So that is at least another 13,000 coins to noodle.
... so if my maths is correct then statistically I'm looking at the probability of at least a bit over four months to complete the set if I continue to noodle $100 worth of coins daily! Edited by coaster
10/09/2020 10:07 am
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Moderator
United States
190135 Posts |
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86th $100
Another Letter but one I have!
2019 A to Z - 'O' for Outback Nice!  Come on, 87! Prove me right! |
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Moderator
United States
190135 Posts |
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so if my maths is correct then statistically I'm looking at the probability of at least a bit over four months to complete the set if I continue to noodle $100 worth of coins daily  |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5255 Posts |
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... so if my maths is correct then statistically I'm looking at the probability of at least a bit over four months to complete the set if I continue to noodle $100 worth of coins daily! Yes, there is no time to lose! However, remember that you could be lucky and get them within 2 months. Edited by oriole
10/10/2020 06:18 am
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Replies: 528 / Views: 41,914 |
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