A General Question About The Value Of Radar Notes

I agree with 'Coinfrog' in that there are just too many variables to get a handle & come up with a general rule for most radars. If you study your "Special Serial Numbers-- N" tables from the end section of your Charlton Guide you will note right off the bat how difficult it is to get a grasp on the Book Values. It seems impossible to detect a pattern & the pricing panel sure seems to have failed to have kept them updated.

N1 (solids radars) simply have estimates & no figures for 1937 since nobody collected special numbers. That makes sense but they should have included 1935 as "extremely rare" as they did with their last N1-iii table. Even the figures for Devil Faces (around $2300 range) & modified 1954 ($1200-$1700) are exceptionally conservative/unrealistic IMO. The difference between in Book Values (BV) of a Modified (1954), the Multicoloured (70's) & Birds Series (80/90's) solid radars has a very slim margin. That just doesn't make sense.

You will notice that even more for N1-ii (Two Digit Radars) which I've seldom seen for the 1937 (let alone Devil Faces).

As an example, my 2019 Ed, states that 1937 $2, $5, $10 & $20 all have the same BV estimates ($700) for an UNC 2 digit radar. I don't think I've seen one (or if I have it must have been several years ago) so I'm willing to bet that these figures are essentially meaningless. Devil Face 2 digit radars all have the same BV as well ($550) until the $50 & $100 denominations ($1850 & $1600 respectively). These figures (more than the 1937 $50 & $100 radars) just don't make sense TBH. The figures stated for the Modified 1954 are just as absurdly low (nothing like the market). If you go to the bottom of the table & check out the Frontiers, Historic Reign ($20 Commemorative) & the 'Canada 150' $10, you will note that all 2 digit radars have the same BV ($90 for the Tens & $100 for the $20). [Both commemoratives were very short 50M runs: the $20 wasn't collected much but the $10 was] I haven't seen one historic reign $20 two digit radar yet & I know for a fact that the "150" Commemorative had no inserts & the SN issued jumped all over so very few radars were caught by brick searchers. Several banks had strict policies on limiting the # of commemoratives they'd allow patrons to withdraw.

[Not all radars are created equal: for example, most collectors I know would prefer a thousand or repeater radar over others. For example 0001000 to 0009000 & 9696969 are often more scarce/expensive than 7555557] This was what 'coinfrog' alluded to.

There is no distinction given in the pricing tables between 3 & 4 digit radars even though most collectors I know prefer the 3 digit over the 4 digit radar. The tables seem a little more realistic, however, for the first 2 series (1935 & 1937 as "extremely rare") which makes one scratch their head for the 2 digit & solid 1937 radars (given such modest estimates). All in all, I have found the table for N1-iii (3&4 Digit Radars) to be much more helpful. They have given the "150" Canada $10 a BV of $50 compared to $35 for the Frontiers & the 2015 a minor $10 premium over the regular $20 ($55 vs $45).

The fair market value (what collectors are actually paying) for most special serial numbers seems to be on a tear at the moment so I'm sure most Charlton catalogs will be dated. I just used my latest ed as an example to illustrate how the book is general guide only.

Some interesting results from Saturday's Colonial Acres Auction for solid radars. All of them went for over $2000. The solid 8's particularly high at $2673, the 7's and 9's at $2558. More than the price of an ounce of gold.

In the last few years, all special numbers, especially the major ones along with really cool errors has double or more BV, same sale the 20 dollar ghost note sold for around 10 k with taxes, this note only 5 years ago maybe 4 to 5 k at most

I agree, but -It's not just the solid radar tables that need updating/revisions.

Eight years ago, I had some spare money I wanted to use on 1935, 1937 (Osborne) & a few Devil Face upgrades (low denominations). I only bought about half of what I wanted because I discovered that only 10-25% of the listings were from Canadian sellers. The vast majority of the notes I wanted were from US based sellers (or dealers) who had everything listed in USD. At the time, that was a 40% differential between the USD & CDN so Charlton BV was nearly irrelevant. While I managed to get 1/2 of my want list for around BV (or more factoring in tax/shipping), I counted myself lucky as most of these notes are way more expensive than the Charlton tables indicate. Prices have jumped yearly & the book always seems behind for BOC first 3 series (& especially behind on errors or special #).

Of the few remaining Canadian sellers only a small fraction had their items listed in True Auction style (with low starting bids). Most had their listings in BIN (Buy it Now) & then there was 13% tax I had to add. So for a $3000 note, that's nearly $400 in tax. Most tough high grade items are probably listed for about 15 - 40% less than what they actually are.

Another sore topic for me is the unrealistic "insert replacement" tables listed in Charlton (which have been unrealistically generous). About 3-4 years ago, a collector sold me 2 of these for 1/2 Charlton BV (& these were PMG graded GEMs). The only reason I bought them was b/c they happen to be change-overs as well (which I collect).

I understand that they like to be conservative & I'm good with that (for about 2-5 years), however they could have started making serious revisions on the early BOC series about 4 years ago IMO.

Unidentifiable "Inserts" on the last 3 series have tanked & they've never made any adjustments on those.

The recent commemoratives (2015 $20 sleeper & 2017 $10) were very popular (world demand) & any special numbers on these have been extremely pricey (compared to the previous series) but they have not acknowledged this either.