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Replies: 16 / Views: 2,329 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2734 Posts |
Why is the 1892 Philadelphia Morgan priced so low overall? The 1892-P has a lower mintage than any of the three branch Mints' Morgans that year. A standard answer would be 'higher population', but then I see something like this: 1892-P PCGS MS-64 (PCGS pop. 1223) = $1,150 PCGS 1892-CC PCGS MS-64 (PCGS pop. 1384) = $3,500 PCGS Carson City made 316,000 more Morgans than Philly that year (!), so the greater population in PCGS MS-64 grade today is fairly proportionate to their original mintages. So the 1892-CC's value in MS-64 (PCGS and NGC) is three times as much as for the 1892-P, even though it's a more common coin (in original mintage, and present PCGS population in that grade). Chalk that up to the Carson City "Old West" cachet, even though that MS-64 CC didn't even leave the vaults until the 1970's, and in a GSA holder no less!  It seems to me that if I take a pass on that Carson City prestige mintmark (on an MS-64 coin that didn't actually circulate in the Old West, anyway!), I get a rarer coin for 1/3 the price and I can buy a bunch of Western movies on DVD instead... 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2797 Posts |
Looks like you figured it out all by yourself.  I also shun the CC mintmark due to the cost. So which Westerns are you getting?
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Valued Member
United States
311 Posts |
I've wondered the same thing... Those CC coins just have better marketing, I guess!
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
2734 Posts |
Quote: SeatedNut: "So which Westerns are you getting?" "A Fistful Of Dollars" "For A Few Dollars More"  I only have them on VHS, so I really do want to get them on DVD!  (I do have "The Good, The Bad And The Ugly" on DVD.) Also "Tombstone" and "The Long Riders", to replace my VHS tapes... I have a couple of nice VF "CC" Morgans that actually circulated in the Old West days  . A local dealer has the two 1892 PCGS MS-64 Morgans (CC and Philly). Yours truly told him (in addition to the basics of this post): "This is one of the worst examples of overpricing because of the "CC" mintmark", and he said "The CC buyers don't look at the other mintage numbers".....
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Moderator
 United States
23522 Posts |
Conditional rarity. Carson City Morgans were minted and circulated; elsewhere in the country they were curiosities, filling no monetary need. The only Uncirculated Carson City Morgans were the ones held in Mint bags until after the Second World War. It is difficult to visualize, given the many thousands (millions?) of Morgans still extant, but the overwhelming majority of Morgan dollars were melted for silver content. Something approaching three hundred million Morgans went into the smelter. After that, it's anybody's guess as to which mintages were rare in the real world; mintage figures aren't relevant. Do this test: Go looking for well-circulated Morgans. I will guarantee you that the easiest Morgans to find in AG3-VF20 grades will be Carson City issues. A well-circulated Philadelphia Morgan is just as great a conditional rarity as an MS66 CC. Mint State Morgans, on the other hand, are just a game of chance. Maybe more Philadelphia Morgans survived than Carson City ones; maybe not. My guess is, more Philadelphia issues survived, and the greater percentage of slabbed Carson City issues is just a matter of greater demand and more attempts to crack for an upgrade.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
628 Posts |
I don't understand the popularity of CC morgans either. They are very easy to sell, for whatever reason. That's what I like about them.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1267 Posts |
As SuperDave stated, a greater percentage of CC dollars were put into circulation than from the other mints, and they had to survive difficult travelling conditions to get there. The other factor is that for many the CC mint is magical and conjures up images of the American wild west. Greater demand, higher price. If I could only own a single Morgan dollar (like that would ever happen  ), I would want it to be a CC.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
2734 Posts |
Quote: SuperDave: "A well-circulated Philadelphia Morgan is just as great a conditional rarity as an MS66 CC." I better take my VF-20 1881-P out of my bolo tie, then.... Someone might think it's a "CC" because it's VF-20....  I see a lot of VG to VF Philly Morgans at the dealers (the dealer that I just bought the 1892-P from has dozens of Philly Morgans in that grade range), but yes AG Phillies would be huge conditional rarities (since they were the first to go into the melting pots in the late 1960's and 1980!  ). And yes I have had a VF-20 1892-P for a while now, as well... As far as 'conditional rarity', well the PCGS MS-64 1892-P has 161 less population than its triple more expensive PCGS MS-64 1892-CC cousin!  Methinks we have a 'sleeper' here, but even if it stays worth 1/3 of its "CC" cousin, it's still the rarer population coin. If that was due to "CC"'s being cracked and resubmitted, that would be hilarious! "Oh, I'm sorry CC guys, you've made my Philly rarer than your CC, at least officially!  " 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
632 Posts |
I just bought a rather nice looking CC morgan here on the forums. I like the Morgan dollar, but it definitely isn't my favorite U.S. coin. So not wanting to spend a whole lot of money on collecting morgans I decided to do just a mint-mark set. Have one nice morgan from all five mints. So thats why I got my CC. Quote: So which Westerns are you getting? Don't get me started.....I'm the only 19 year old I know that likes westerns Virtually anything with Clint Eastwood (Except 'Paint Your Wagon Red') "The Searchers", "McClintock", "True Grit" are all awesome John Wayne Movies Tombstone and Silverado are both more recent westerns that I recommend
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Rest in Peace
United States
4849 Posts |
Quote: As far as 'conditional rarity', well the PCGS MS-64 1892-P has 161 less population than its triple more expensive PCGS MS-64 1892-CC cousin! Methinks we have a 'sleeper' here, but even if it stays worth 1/3 of its "CC" cousin, it's still the rarer population coin. Here is my opinion regarding the comparison of PCGS population reports. The fact of the matter is, the more valuable the coin, the more likely it is to be submitted for grading/authentication. So just because a coin is rare, it may actually have a higher population report than it's higher mintage counterpart, mostly because the increase in realized price will be larger with the rare coin than with the more common coin after submission. What is the PCGS population report on a 1942 F-12 Lincoln Cent? I'm willing to bet it's pretty low, probably much lower than the F-12 population of the 1909-s vdb.
Edited by johnny54321 01/31/2009 11:58 am
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
2734 Posts |
Quote: johnny54321: ...The more valuable the coin, the more likely it is to be submitted for grading/authentication. So, just because a coin is rare, it may actually have a higher population report than it's higher mintage counterpart. Now that is a good point!  However, the difference here isn't as dramatic as it would be if you were comparing (for example) the 1916-D Mercury dime to the 1916-S Mercury dime, or a three-legged Buffalo nickel to a regular 1937-D. Those are cases where the 'big money version' coin will be slabbed for verification alone...(like many a 1909 S-VDB!) Many people will send any MS Morgan to a TPGS, so it's no problem to get even the most common MS Morgans in a PCGS or NGC slab. Come to think of it, there are people who'll send any Morgan in for a slab, even if it's a VG 1921...  So in the case of MS Morgans (probably more so than for any other series of coin), that the odds are pretty good that even the 'lesser priced' of any two MS Morgans being compared will be in a slab, especially if the 'lesser priced' coin has a Greysheet bid over $100 in its grade. This would level the playing field as far as populations go...
Edited by DNA 01/31/2009 11:34 pm
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Moderator
 United States
23522 Posts |
Here's the thing, though. Mint State Morgans are pretty common, because so many were saved in Mint bags at the Treasury. However, being in bags, they tended to get baggy, i.e., scratched and marked up. MS63 is easy for almost any Morgan, and MS64 not difficult. MS65 and above, though....it's very difficult for a big, heavy Morgan to avoid damage in a bag.
Darn few (comparatively) survived in Gem condition. Let's take a hypothetical Morgan where the true real-world populations are like (pulling numbers out of my head) 10,000 existing in MS63, 5,000 in 64, 1000 in 65 and 30 in MS66 with none finer. That coin might be worth $100 in 63, $200 in 64 and $1000 in 65. 66's would command 5-figure prices.
There's no incentive to resubmit a 63. They're too common, and too obvious, and 64's aren't that great a step in price. However, you can assume that the Pops in 64 and 65 will be overstated by as much as 50% (or more), because of the great incentive to "make" a higher grade. With a $200 coin in-hand, I would certainly take the $25 risk to make it a $1000 coin, especially if it was nice for the grade and I only had $100 in the coin, as a dealer might. Risking that $25 on a $1000 coin to possibly make a $10,000 coin is a no-brainer. Even the few 66's are subject to cracking, if the coin is nice enough.
When you add in the "cachet" of a CC Morgan (and there is obviously a subjective preference for them), you can assume that any CC Morgan population in 64 or above is greatly overstated.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
655 Posts |
Quote:SuperDave ...the overwhelming majority of Morgan dollars were melted for silver content. Something approaching three hundred million Morgans went into the smelter. After that, it's anybody's guess as to which mintages were rare in the real world... This is very true. With all the quality control and record keeping of the government and the Mint I'm surprised they didn't keep track of the exact figures of the coins that were reclaimed. Ron
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
2734 Posts |
Ah, the joys of 'crackouts'!  A number of people would crack and resubmit the MS-64 1892-P as well, for the reasons SuperDave outlined. It's worth about 5× as much in MS65. I do indeed believe that MS-64+ CC Morgans are cracked and resent more than any other Mint's MS-64+ Morgans (in general). I would even lean towards that the 1892-CC is rarer than the 1892-P in true population, but maybe not as much rarer as everyone thinks. CC's were the most likely of any Mints to be saved and collected over the decades. The CC's were also the least likely to have been melted in the 1960's and 1980, due to their numismatic value even then. Some of the melters would have melted any Morgan from Philly and saved any CC Morgan.... (and the GSA sales in the 1970's greatly increased the total population of CC Morgans in public hands!) The 'population inflation' has some ironic side effects, such as anyone can put an MS-64 1892-P on ebay, and claim it to be "lower mintage and lower population" than the MS-64 1892-CC! (and be 100% technically correct!) (and that might explain why 1892-P owners won't want to crack out their coins!)
Edited by DNA 02/01/2009 7:35 pm
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
2734 Posts |
Oh, yeah, I got this DVD last night  : 
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Valued Member
United States
60 Posts |
DNA - love that 2-DVD set. !! 
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Replies: 16 / Views: 2,329 |