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Replies: 31 / Views: 2,964 |
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Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
1077 Posts |
Steve199 - This is exactly what we are saying is not necessarily the case. It is not a short supply that puts the price up, but sellers knowing they can get that price because of the hype. Buyers expect to pay higher, so they do.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1228 Posts |
All of the 1999 silver quarters will be selling for $30+ before the year is out its simply because they have been out the longest form all of the State Quarters!
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Rest in Peace
 United States
1380 Posts |
Hollywood, I was delighted to get all of the 1999 silver quarters for an average of $30 each, as for the last three years that I've been trying to get them, they've been $60 to $75 each. If you know where I can get them for less than $30 each, I'll buy another set.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1882 Posts |
Quicksilver, you started discussing keys, and got very specific. 1909S-VDB. Let's bring the 1914-D into discussion. And how about the 1916-D dime. There are simply not as many of these coins out there, and the higher the grade, the fewer there are. You could go swimming in MS65 Merc. dimes from the 40's.
Please don't misunderstand me...I'm saying it is supply AND demand. Hype is a part of demand. But in the long run, hype, all by itself, won't keep demand up. (Beanie babies, anyone?) If there is a conspiracy, who is behind it, and how do they keep it going? I believe that the free market is efficient, and that it works.
The OP paid over $20 for a 1999 quarter, and thought it was worth it. And a lot of people apparently feel the same way. That is demand.
( edit ) My mistake, it wasn't the original poster that actually bought the coin.
Edited by steve199 02/10/2009 12:40 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1882 Posts |
Quote: Hollywood, I was delighted to get all of the 1999 silver quarters for an average of $30 each, as for the last three years that I've been trying to get them, they've been $60 to $75 each. I rest my case. 
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Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
1077 Posts |
I take your point about certain keys. That is a different reason for them being keys. With certain coins there aren't enough to go around. The 1909S VDB may not have been a good example as there are a lot less of those, it was just one I (A non collector of US coins) could name off the top of my head. With others there should be a good supply, but doesn't seem to be? I think you are right, hype is a part of demand in as much as it creates it. Plus because of the hype around certain coins as opposed to others with similar supply, more people want them, so they are in shorter supply and therefore more expensive. My point is that if they were not so hyped, a normal number of collectors would be after them, they would not be in such short supply, and would be more reasonably priced. It's just the way I see it, I'm not stating it as fact, more as a theory as to why certain coins seem more expensive than they should be a la the silver quarter at the top of this thread. If I understand the buyer correctly, I think he was delighted at the price because of his expectations. They had been selling at way over the odds, and still are, but he had got them at what seemed like a bargain given they had been so high. That's my understanding of it. He still felt they were overpriced given the number available. But I could be wrongly interpreting his thoughts too. Thoughts are often difficult to express in a few words on a forum.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1882 Posts |
Quote: That's my understanding of it. He still felt they were overpriced given the number available. It appears you are understanding correctly. :) jgfindring, back on page one, you summarized all the factors that play into the supply and demand on the 1999 silver proofs. Recently, gas dropped from about $4 to $1.50 in a few months. Let me ask you this: Did the demand (the number of gallons being consumed) for gas drop by over 60%? My guess is no. Not even close. Certainly the supply didn't double...OPEC frantically was trying to cut the supply to stop the fall. A 10 or 20% change in supply or demand does not necessarily translate into a 10-20% change in price.
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Rest in Peace
 United States
1380 Posts |
No, QuickSilver, you got it right. I was delighted at the price because of my expectations, having watched what I thought was outrageous prices on these for several years. I still feel I paid too much though, as the relative rarity on these just isn't there. The original poster wanted to know why the coin was so expensive, I question I still can't answer with any reasonably concise explanation, other than it's that expensive because that's what everyone sells it for, whether it makes sense or not. I'm not suggesting conspiracy, but my best explanation is still herd behavior. One dealer starts with a high price, others see him get it and raise their prices to match, because they feel there must have been a reason the first guy thought it was worth so much and since it sold for that, he must have been right, and even though they don't know why it's worth that it must be, so raise the price!
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Rest in Peace
 United States
1380 Posts |
Steve199, I wasn't saying a 10% drop in supply should equal a 10% drop in price, and gas is not an apples to apples comparison. Gas prices were much more driven by long term speculation in oil futures, and were only very slightly related to actual end product gasoline demand. So what is driving prices on silver proof sets? Long term silver bullion speculation? Not hardly. Any outside price pressures would act on the entire series equally. For silver value or any other intrinsic value, there is no difference between a $60 1999 quarter and a $6 2000 quarter. So why is the 1999 quarter worth 10 times as much as the 2000 one? I'm still going to collect them at that price, but it closely approaches my limit of marginal desire. At 12 times would I buy it? No. That is somewhat supply and demand, but I'm trying to understand what first caused the 1999 to become the marginal decider. It is the most expensive in the series and so decides if you are going to collect the series. At some certain price, different for everyone, a decision will be made that it is too expensive for it's marginal worth. Obviously, 10 times it's comparative worth is not enough to stop me and many others from collecting it, but what caused that particular set to jump to 10 times the value of one with only 10 or 15% higher mintage? Again,it's a modern set with no shortages.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
Meanwhile back to why some coins are expensive, some are more popular, some are just ignored. The coin album and folder manufactureres also play an important part of this. Look in an album for cents. There are always slots for the 09S VDB, 14D, 31S but why the slot for the 22 Plain, 55 Double Die, 72 Double Die and none of the others. These are error coins not somethin with even a quantity made. There are numerous other errors in that series and none appear in those albums. WHY? Does Whitman and Dansco decide on what you should collect? I've got an album with a slot for the 1913 Liberty Head Nickel by Whitman. Do they think I'm going to go out and find one somewhere? And there is that slot. This is the same with many, many other coins. These companies decide on what is required in the albums and millions and millions of people now need those coins to fill that slot. So now you have coins that are valuable and primarily due to companies like Whitman and Dansco and many others. And in the famous Red Book if they list a price for a coin that is way up there and out of place, no one complains but start looking for those just in case Whitman knows something. I wonder if the Red Book listed a 1966-D Lincoln Cent in AU for $1,000.00 how many people would go nuts looking for those.
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Valued Member
United States
245 Posts |
"WHY? Does Whitman and Dansco decide on what you should collect?"
Yes, they do have an effect!
Edited by Figman 02/11/2009 09:43 am
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Pillar of the Community
United Kingdom
1077 Posts |
Very interesting. I agree it seems strange they include a couple of errors, and not all of them. Are these particular errors so common that they are considered varieties? Were they "famous" before Dansco and Whitman decided to include slots for them in their albums. Having a space in an album you just know you can't fill would drive me nuts! You'll have to get yourself a Chinese one!  Seems like a good reason not to do albums. I do like to make up my own mind about what I collect and what constitutes a certain set. I think even if you take a fairly simple set such as "US type coins of the 20th century" you will get different opinions about what should and should not be included.
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Moderator
 United States
188524 Posts |
Quote: but why the slot for the 22 Plain, 55 Double Die, 72 Double Die and none of the others For the record, my Lincoln Dansco only has the hole for a 1922-D Plain, not the 1955 DD or 1972 DD. Still, it bothers me it is there an I will probably put a weak-D in the hole.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
Quote: For the record, my Lincoln Dansco only has the hole for a 1922-D Plain, not the 1955 DD or 1972 DD. Still, it bothers me it is there an I will probably put a weak-D in the hole.
No wonde so many prefer Dansco lately. All mine are Whitman. And my Mercury dime albums have that silly slots for the 42/41,42D/41 and the 45Micro S. Same thing. Why those. There are numerous other errors in that series. And many other different sizes of mint marks. So why those error coins. And due to them being in the albums, the prices of those are way, way up there. So yes it is companies like the ones that make albums, folders, books on coins, etc that create the values. If there was no slots in any albums for the 22 Plain, just how much would it be worth. And who would even care that it existed.
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Moderator
 United States
188524 Posts |
Quote: If there was no slots in any albums for the 22 Plain, just how much would it be worth. And who would even care that it existed. Exactly. 
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Replies: 31 / Views: 2,964 |