Russian Gold Boycott Effect

I think it should have minimal impact on the global gold price.

1. Russia produces less than 10% of the world's current gold production.

2. Most of the major global gold buyers - including China, India and Turkey - are either allies of Russia or neutrals and would not be joining the boycott.

3. Gold is fungible; Russian gold is chemically and physically identical to anybody else's gold, it's not superior or inferior in any way, and not even distinguishable without really high-tech equipment to fingerprint the trace contaminants. They will simply find buyers who aren't boycotting them, so I doubt they will need to offer much of a discount. Those buyers can then on-sell the laundered gold to boycotting countries, and there's no way anybody can tell it's "Russian gold" after that.

4. Most of the gold Russia has been making for the past few years has gone straight into the national stockpile, rather than being sold abroad. Selling the reserve would be a last-resort tactic, since it's the existence of that reserve that's preventing the rouble from freefalling completely.

Of course, what "should" happen and what actually happens are rarely causally linked. Humans are not known for absolute rationality.

Not nearly as much as central banks increasing interest rates. That has the effect of depressing all commodity prices. Which is the whole point of doing it.

"Anyone want to hazard a guess as to what effect the Russian gold boycott will have on the price of gold in the near term, if any?
My guess is that it will send the price higher. If my past prognostications are taken into account the price will now drop like a stone, or at best, lie flat."

The above is my initial post from the end of June. Since then gold is down about $150, so I was right about being wrong.