Quote:To datadragon's point, I already own Strike It Rich, the CPG 4th edition, and I have studied Wexler, VV, PCGS for the technical points of identification. Let's just put this out there: the prices listed in the books are (to put it very kindly) inaccurate to the real market. Even the
Red Book and Numismedia are disconnected compared to real sales prices on
ebay, in the same way that PCGS price guides are disconnected from Great Collections, Stacks Bowers, and other auction houses.
Guides are just the initial tools to first use and great for beginners. They may help you to start to learn what is worth looking for more in depth, and be able to note differences between one that may be worth a few dollars to those worth far higher. Sites can contain all kinds of others to look for, but it doesn't mean there is demand or value because of it not being well known from books or graded by pcgs etc which will keep values lower after the initial people who want one obtain one. Of course if you only look for the white whales you may never find it nor see all the many others that are out there you at least will come across with regular
Quote:I have studied the
ebay sales and Great Collections records for specific varieties of interest, and the only conclusion that seemed immediately apparent was that the top grade stuff is driven by registry sets, the mid-grade stuff trades infrequently with volatile prices, and the circulation grade stuff is a Sphinx-esque
ebay mystery.
Yes, whether you are talking about strike it rich, paper money of the usa,
Red Book or really any other guide for that matter you can next look at real world sales in auctions,
ebay (and use terapeak and other tools) if you are looking to keep up with the latest values as a seller.
At least with varieties and errors they are sometimes less often found in some cases and so tend not to fluctuate hugely on price except when there are few examples and unlikely to find more with more people wanting one then the price goes way up. Ultimately its demand vs supply and what people are willing to pay.
Top grade examples will always bring top values and demand. Coins can decline in value over time even with high end examples but its not solely because the populations go up as more are found in that grade, but because with high value coins specifically, the populations go up at a rate faster than the number of collectors that are willing to buy at that high cost and participate in high end registry sets. Therefore the price lowers as the next group of buyers/registry set collectors are only willing to spend a bit less. Unless a collector who bought one of the high value coins likes one better and wants to upgrade or thinks a second coin is a good investment, that collector is not going to be buying more than one. At certain times like now its possible with high coin prices and money issues others are selling their collection and driving up supply as well.
Circulation coins have far lower demand initially if there is a higher uncirculated example that is within typical budget. Its only when that goes super high value where people start looking at cheaper options to fill their holes or obtain an example. Its for that reason people actually started buying those poor man doubled dies when the cost of the real doubled die became too high and people wanted something to fill the hole.
