Posted 08/26/2009 01:28 am
SM, when I am faced with a decision like that, I will either scrape together enough for an MS-63+, or look hard for a very attractive AU-50,55, or 58. MS-60 to MS-62 coins generally don't look very good to me, so sometimes I have to ask myself if the extra cost is justified for a technically better, but visually inferior coin.
To make a more technical analysis, if you look at 1948 prices from EF to MS-62, the price curve is fairly linear. As soon as you hit MS-63 though, the curve goes parabolic, up $1000 in MS-63, another $3000 more in MS-64, and $14,000 more in MS-65. This suggests to me that over time (and taking into account the average collector budget) a low MS is not much better than the AU level coins for future "investment" potential. If you want to try and ride that train, scratch together enough for at least an MS-63. Otherwise, the AU level coin will give you the most coin for the money, and will more or less track along with prevailing winds in the general marketplace.
To make a more technical analysis, if you look at 1948 prices from EF to MS-62, the price curve is fairly linear. As soon as you hit MS-63 though, the curve goes parabolic, up $1000 in MS-63, another $3000 more in MS-64, and $14,000 more in MS-65. This suggests to me that over time (and taking into account the average collector budget) a low MS is not much better than the AU level coins for future "investment" potential. If you want to try and ride that train, scratch together enough for at least an MS-63. Otherwise, the AU level coin will give you the most coin for the money, and will more or less track along with prevailing winds in the general marketplace.
