Does 78% Of 215 Bids In The Last 30 Days Indicate A Shill?

That just means that there was a reserve placed.Nothing unusual.

Right now there are 7 different bidders pushing this price up. Is there a shill involved? Almost impossible to tell from the bid history. Only see a slight pattern on this item that would suggest it. You could possibly find a pattern on the seller if you wanted to but it involves quite a bit of work and I will not tell you how on this thread. Private email me if you want. A lot of big ebay sellers have friends (call it shill if you want) who will bid up the item if the bidding is too low or to make the item look more attractive by having a lot of bids. Used to be very rampant on ebay years ago. Some people on this forum will say that's not true but believe me it is! ebay goes to a lot of trouble to keep those things out but its almost impossible and basically shills are doing nothing illegal unless they don't actually purchase the item.

edgman

Yeah, I understand how that whole system works and it really can be kind of confusing, I just mean that the 78% thing seems suspicious to me. It seems that much of the time high end sellers may use friends instead of outright shills, because its too easy to get caught.

One way to possibly (notice I said possibly) tell if people are bidding on a sellers item without the intent of buying it is: Look at all the items that seller is selling. The more the better. Look at all the bid histories of all his items and see if you can spot one user bidding on a few of his items. Don't just look at the coins he is selling but everything. If one user is bidding on say coins, books and clothes from one seller a pattern starts to exist. If that user starts bidding early or late the pattern gets bigger. Look at similar coins and see if that bidder is bidding on any of them especially if they are a better deal. If not, why? Next week do the same with that seller and if the same bidder appears again, if so there is a possible problem. Saruma is right in his explanation of the bidding on this coin. First thing I noticed was OM bidding 3 x in a row. Next thing was 2 or more bidders with the user name starting with the letter "O" even though it ended differently. Little things add up. Used to do analyzing stuff like this for a living. Looking for patterns. Edgman is short for "electronic data gathering analyzing and retrieving" man. Still like getting into it.

edgman

Yeah but the difference is...first this guy isn't winning very many, so hes placing a lot of bids but not getting them. Second, its over two hundred. I mean, there could be some explanation, but I've been suspicious of this certain user before (I deduced their ID) and it smells fishy to me.

Since they quit placing the bidders ID on the page, (or in the windowa0, It is hard to tell. When I run across something I want in an auction, My bid will be the MAX I will pay for the item. Then ebay will notify me that, "you are still the top bidder", Or, "Youu have been out-bid, etc". I used to go along with the bidding, and always ended up losing out, or paying too much. That type bid could account for the rapid bidding, "shill effect". I seldom bid, on ebay. I use the "Buy-it-now", and If I like the price, I'll buy it. I have seen "shill bidders" in live auctions for surplus commodities, and have kept a good eye on the staff, and floor workers when bidding. I have managed to "drop it" on them, several times. The auctioneer, doesn't like that.
Dick