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Valuing 19th Century Gold...numismatic Value Vs. Spot Values

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eagle1's Avatar
United States
94 Posts
 Posted 05/21/2010  12:36 pm Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add eagle1 to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
In a volitile market such as the one we are currently in, when looking to purchase a 19th century gold piece (say a 1901 $5 gold), how does someone incorporate the current market price of gold against the numismatic value of a classic coin. In other words, is it 30% spot value of gold and 70% numismatic value of rarity and condition that determines the market price for a coin like this, or some other valuation method, or because of the mix, are the prices for this type of coin stable?
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delaner's Avatar
United States
870 Posts
 Posted 05/21/2010  12:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add delaner to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'm not really one to answer, but my feeling from studying this all a bit is that it's completely determined by demand. That % you're after fluctuates with the demand for gold versus the demand for the rare and precious coins. Of course, the finer the grade of coin, and the more rare, the less it is determined by the price of gold. Were you to buy a most precious, most rare specimen, it would have less (perhaps very little) to do with the price of gold; whereas if you were to buy a more common variety with high known mintage and less numismatic value (lower grade), the factor of the gold value increases in importance exponentially.

I had a friend who had some very rare, very fine gold pieces in the late 80's - they were rated very highly, however the coin dealers that he took them to only offered him their melt value.

Bottom line, I'll go back to my mantra - collect coins because you love them and you enjoy the hobby - not because you're interested in significant return on investment. =)

Of course - there's that other thing that the price of gold has been going up steadily for some time now. I tend to be the salmon type - if everyone is buying it, I'm not.
Edited by delaner
05/21/2010 12:51 pm
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johnny54321's Avatar
United States
4849 Posts
 Posted 05/21/2010  1:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add johnny54321 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
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eagle1's Avatar
United States
94 Posts
 Posted 05/22/2010  09:59 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add eagle1 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
delaner - this all makes sense and is pretty much what I thought. My thoughts though with gold was that the investment angle would take over a higher relative proportion over the collecting angle as compared to copper. I am just considering whether it makes sense to abandon the assemblence of complete sets (my lincolns), and only keep the highest grades and key/semi-key dates, in exchange for say an collecting of gold type coins because I do like the coins, plus it just may make more sense to the non-collecting members of society (i.e my wife) to have gold.
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delaner's Avatar
United States
870 Posts
 Posted 05/24/2010  01:24 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add delaner to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Well... It's REALLY hard to judge. Gold could continue to go up in value, but if you look at a historical track, my guess is we may be close to hitting a plateau? I'm no expert, for sure - but if Gold drops in value (and it will, I can't tell you when - a month, a year?) and suddenly your Gold collection is worth half as much as you paid for it, it'll be a lot harder to explain to your wife. Of course, over time, it will obviously recover any losses and accelerate to a solid investment.

My thought there is talk to your wife about it, explain your thoughts, and if you want gold - go for it! Understand there is some risk, and keep your portfolio well-diversified.

* AGAIN - I'm NO EXPERT... just thoughts of an amateur. =) I could be COMPLETELY wrong! *

For what it's worth, ME- I'd probably go for better copper key dates, maybe not break up my set, but invest in a few more (extra), for now... then when and if gold ever does fall, you can pick up more of it for less, and keep your sets complete. But that's only if you want to put money into your collection that you don't have in it. If you want to go through your collection to raise money for new acquisitions, I might stay away from gold for now, or make some modest investments and ride the short term train, selling periodically to make sure I recoup what I can - then if the price does plummit (or even drop modestly), I'm not caught with my pants down and I've got an even cooler collection that I didn't lose too much on.

Anyway, I'm rambling about theoretics here now. I'm no expert, I'm an amateur, and I probably don't have any idea what I'm talking about!

As others have mentioned, eagle1 - you do have to account for a spousal tax associated with collecting and playing with toys of any type. So if getting a few gold pieces appease the spouse, that's a pretty cool situation to be in!
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johnny54321's Avatar
United States
4849 Posts
 Posted 05/24/2010  01:36 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add johnny54321 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
As for me, I pretty much have it split between high grade types, key dates, gold numismatic, and gold bullion. I think diversity is key. I personally don't think gold will drop too much, at least not get split in half; but you never know.
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delaner's Avatar
United States
870 Posts
 Posted 05/24/2010  1:02 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add delaner to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
yeah, probably not - it's not yet back to its value in the early 1700's. Ah, precious metals are weird.
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