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 Replies: 13 / Views: 932 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2724 Posts |
Since we have tossed this around a few times, I thought that I would share a little insight. Pop guides are just that. You have to take into consideration how many of us dealers crack the slabs and resubmit hoping and sometimes praying for a point or two. Sometimes we get lucky and sometimes not. Some coins are submitted multiple times in different forms (in the slab, out of the slab, different companies). Each and everytime the coin is graded it adds to the population numbers. For some of the rarer coins, this can give false numbers. For those of you that attended the Palm Beach show last November will remember the 1872 Proof-67 Shield nickel. At that time the coin had a NGC population of 1. Well the dealer who bought the coin resubmitted it and then there were two. The current dealer also resubmitted and now there are 3. It lowered the value of the coin a few hundred dollars due to this attempt at seeing 68 or even a 67*. Now if the dealer who runs across this coin will take into consideration that 1 coin represents all 3 in the population he will pick up a very sweet coin at a bargain price. So when you are checking to see just how many are graded in a particular year or mint, take into consideration just how many dealers have tried to make an extra dollar by resubmitting. It is a game that most of us play. |
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Rest in Peace
United States
2684 Posts |
I suppose it's wishful thinking, but do the top four grading services happen to take pictures of the top pop coins? Each coin has its own "fingerprint" and could be identified if it came back in for regrading after being cracked out of its slab. Come to think of it, if a raw coin came in and it was graded at or near top population, it only makes sense for the grading company to ask itself if it had been submitted before.
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Valued Member
United States
382 Posts |
I work in an industry where linear laser scanners are doing just that...scanning the surface of everything from military weapons to dental restorations. These surface scans are remarkable and are accurate within 10 to 20 microns. With that said, I always bring up a our little hobby to the "gear-heads" who developed this technology and for "fun", we scanned a State Quarter (obverse), captured the data, stored it, and then sent the data to a computerized milling machine where they milled the obverse of quarter right down to every nick and blemish! The results on a block of metal were fantastic and any store clerk would have easily accepted it as a "quarter". We quickly destroyed the "coin" for we are not in business to make counterfeit currency, but the point was made...data can be captured, stored, and be used as a "DNA Fingerprint" for surface X,Y, and Z data. Don't be surprised one day when this technology makes its way to numismatics. The technology is already here and is being used in these markets that are providing the best ROI. But be patient, we will see it in our lifetime. As for camera documentation, remember the 1933 Double Eagle that was auctioned for better than $7 million dollars? It went through extensive photographic docmentation before it was shipped to its new owner. Photography has true color limitations due to the intensity/type of the light source, the distance of the light and the angle of the light used when the picture was captured. It is one of the reasons why cameras are NOT used in color measurement applications (matching paint at Home Depot, Auto Body Shops, Print-media, etc.), but it does provide nice detail for shape and contour. They used photgraphy to document every nick and mark on this coin so if it does come up again for auction, they can be assured it is the same coin. I have seen some of this new technology and my boss tells me, "Enough of the coins!", but think about the future possibilities for techincal grades and documentation. Edited by zakgold
04/01/2005 10:57 pm
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Rest in Peace
United States
2884 Posts |
Fred, That would be great but very hard to do. It would require data sharing between the companies that post POPS reports. (PCGS, NGC) I have re-submitted coins to the same TPG without disclosing the fact that it had been broken out. On the mid to lower priced coins it is not uncommon for the same coin to be submitted 10 or more times. The higher up the ladder on POPS reports, the more accurate the stats tend to be because of the reasons ND cited. (Don't want that 68 turned into a 67 and of course the overall rarity) My big problem with all population reports is no one knows how many coins are still languishing around yet to be "discoveredā€¯, and as ND mentioned re-submittals cause an artificial "supply" number that can significantly reduce the true rarity and value of a coin. I think this can be better determined by the lack of a certain coin showing up for auction or sale. First of all we have to get past the "crap shoot" accounting of the early American mints, then past the "best guesses" about how many coins were melted down and then perfect a way to detect re-grades and maybe POPS will really mean something!!!  P.S As Zakgold point's out the technology is certainly here, but TPGS of course self promote their POPS reports and this technology could seriously cut into their "volume" business profits!!! Edited by Mike
04/02/2005 12:23 am
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Pillar of the Community
Belgium
2078 Posts |
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Rest in Peace
United States
2684 Posts |
quote:
Originally posted by ageka
http://www.numisworld.net/modules.p...icle&sid=118
Ich nicht sprech Deutsch. Traduisez, s'il vous plais. From what little Deutsch I can understand (deduced more from the photos and the seeming effort the guy is using to hold the "coin", apparently 31 kilograms = 68.2 lbs), those are SOLID GOLD (worth 400,000 Euros?)! And if there's only 15 minted, they could be THE coin collector's fantasy! Wonder what they'll be worth in another ten years or 50 years, either as a numismatic collectible or as bullion. Can these be considered Proofs or Business strikes? Also, with laser cuts, would the term "first strike" be applicable?  At least, bag marks won't be a consideration. Just calculated it out: at $400/ounce, one of these babies is worth US$ 436,480. Definitely not pocket change. |
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Pillar of the Community
Belgium
2078 Posts |
Fred You got it all Nomimal value is 100 000 euro Sales price was 400 000 euro something like 532 000 dollars And I guess it is really a commercial stunt to promote their one ounce coins that allready have 52 % of the Japanese market I read somewhere they are too big to strike whence the laser cut Apart from that I do not like those people all putting fingerprints allover the coin You could gas yourself bathing those in a few gallons of acetone Edited by ageka
04/02/2005 12:23 pm
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
2724 Posts |
Pictures are nice, but really don't capture all the little details. Ed makes a good point. There are laser scanners that are incredibly detailed yet still very expensive. I do think that one day it will move into the numismatic community and be used to begin the grading process. Technical grading needs a bit of help. If the standard was written, the scanner would add or deduct as the marks or wear warrant. Then a person would still have to judge eye appeal and luster as no camera can accurately capture that. (yet). The reason for the 1933 Saint getting so much attention is because of the variety of dies used to create the 440,000 examples. The two in the Smithsonian are of different dies. As this particular coin is now in private hands and can be sold at will, the government and the grading companies can use the photos to authenticate this particular coin. It would keep someone else from coming forth with another Saint and claiming it is the same coin. While pictures can help, it will never replace the small details that need human attention. If the grading companies looked at photos submitted it would only guarantee that the coin came from the same die. Not necessarily the same coin. When the 1913 Liberty nickel was authenticated, the people involved were lucky enough to have the other 4 on site to compare it with. They also used transparency pictures to measure the stars, letters, and other details. One day, photos will play an important role in our hobby, but do to the overwhelming numbers of coins being submitted, they do not take pictures of the coins now unless the customer is paying extra. |
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Valued Member
United States
382 Posts |
Don't guys like PCGS or NGC offer a bounty (50 cents) for each of their labels from broken out or "cross-overed" slabs? Does anybody ever do this?
Is it worth it? For rare coins and very low mintage numbers (as ND pointed out), these population reports can be easily scewed until the submitter gets the grade he/she was hoping for as they submit, break-out, and then submt again.
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Pillar Of The Community
3147 Posts |
I break coins out of slabs all the time with out giving it a second thought. Population reports are just that...reports! Proof and mint sets are another HUGE gray area as no one knows how many are left in any given year seeing how thousands are busted open for singles and to fill albums. I am not real sure, at any given time, if the Mint actually knows, without a doubt, what they produce. I would think they would make every effort but knowing how some workers are, especially the ones I work with on night shift...WOW, we all ought to be glad me and my crew are't working at the mint!!!
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Rest in Peace
United States
2884 Posts |
Terry, have you considered changing your nickname to Stykyfngrd1!  Mike Edited by Mike
04/05/2005 11:01 pm
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Pillar Of The Community
3147 Posts |
NO but I will put that on my lists as I have considered much worse from time to time! The real beauty of this hobby is NOBODY KNOWS what really is left, especially with the classics! You never know how many sleepers you have passed on until its to late! Do you reckon the 96W Roosevelt dime will ever make a run? When you think about it...it is ONE of a kind in a great number of ways! |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1203 Posts |
I will admit that I have had feeling on both sides of this topic fence. At first I thought that the pop count couldn't be right because they had no idea of the coins that I had in our family collection. Few persons outside of the family, and absolutely none of the TPG's have ever seen the coins in the collection at any time. But then I got to thinking of the number of times the coins have been broken out of sets and submitted to these TPG's and that has to be a lot greater than the number of persons, like myself, that have coins that could make a difference in the count. So, I guess I would have to come down on the side of the Pop reports as being over stated to some degree. After all, there is an old saying about figures can be made to show anything you want to have them show. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2724 Posts |
96W Dime?
It has a pretty good little story going for it, but Roosies just don't get the blood stirring for most collectors. I think it is sitting as high as it will reach.
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Posted 04/01/2005 10:55 pm
