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is this always how a years mintage figures are decided?
Usually yes, especially since the creation of the Federal Reserve. Coins flow out of the fed to the banks, and the flow from the banks back to the Fed. The Fed also has a stockpile. As a general rule more coins flow out of the Fed than come back from the banks. From past experience the Fed knows pretty well how many coins will not come back and they suppy that from their stockpile. Then they order new coins from the Mint to replenish the stockpile. Their experience allows them to order the coins a little ahead of time so they don't run out.
But when you have a downturn in the economy fewer coins flow out, and more coins flow in. Fewer coins are needed from the stockpile to make up the shortage and fewer coins are ordere from the mint.
In the case of the 2008 recession the down turns was much more severe and a huge number of people began returning their "change jars" to the bank. So in 2008 the amount of coins flowing to the Fed was greater than the amount flowing OUT of the Fed and the stockpile balloned. With enough coins on hand to supply the banks for months the Fed stopped ordering some coins from the mint or greatly reduced the orders for those they could still use. The result was a massive drop in mintages for 2009 and so far for 2010 because they still have large stockpiles. (But that will correct itself. The outflow is starting t exceed the inflow again.)
Now this does not apply as well to the President and NA dollars. For one thing they are a political football and are being coined even though they are not needed. The Fed would be just as happy if the mint was not making them at all. They have enough in their stockpile right now to supply the market demand for the next 14 years even if the mint never struck another one. The ONLY President dollars the Fed orders is just enough to supply those banks that are still ordering a box or two to supply their customers with each new one. And most of those come flowing back to the Fed. In fact the Fed has MORE of those dollars coming back from the banks than they are sending out So their stockpile is STILL growing. (Actual market demand for the dollar coins is about 7 million coins a month or 54 milion per year. They made 360 million Washingtons, a seven year supply.) Another reason they are getting back more than they are ordering form the mint is due to the direct ship program. Those coins are going from the Mint , to the people, to the banks, to the fed and the stockpile.
Most people do not realize how delicate the balance of in and out is. We know a lot if not most people don't like carrying change and they tend o dump their change in a jar or something at the end of each day where it accumulates. If each person in the country, on the average, dumps ONE coin per WEEK into such a hoard (that's FOUR coins per week for the typical household.) and they sit there for a year without being sent back to the bank, that would consume an entire 15 BILLION coin annual production. A production level that has NEVER been reached.
Posted 09/06/2010 12:59 am
