Silver Prices

I wish I were a JPM insider so I could give you an exact answer and win this poll! But since I am not I'll guess in between $21-25. For this poll I am voting $21.

I'm really hoping for a dip so everyone can get a nice buying opportunity.

Throughout most of history the gold to silver price ration has varied between 10 and 20 to 1.

The difference now is about 60 to 1, and the reason for this silver is not used for circulating currency anymore. Gold has had a more patchy use in currency over the centuries, but has been around.

I don't think we will see a 10 or 20 to 1 ratio ever again, or at least in our lifetime, so on that basis, silver is not under priced.

If you are interested in buying silver as an investment you will have to resign yourself to treating it like any other commodity. I you are going to buy scrap silver coin, the assay and refining costs have to be taken into account. In this type of reasoning the amount of silver you have to sell, when you do get around to selling it, is important.

The silver price has a small but significant indirect influence on the value of a coin collection; the numismatic value far outweighs this.

I made a small amount of money in the early '80s buying scrap silver coins. I just got lucky; I could have lost a lot. I saw the price of silver rising rapidly and bought scrap silver coins. The reason I got lucky is that a large bill came up and had to be paid, and I converted to cash just before the price crash!

From that experience, I have learned not to buy scrap silver coins again.

There's a lot of psychological drama involved with the "magic $20 barrier",
but once that's broken...

When I was at the Denver Mint Gift Shop buying my 2010 Silver Proof Set,
I bought another 2009 Silver Proof Quarters Set...for "bullion"!

Six 90% Silver Territorial Quarters for $29.95.
Melt value alone is $21.57 at the time of this post.

Not bad, considering the 2010 Silver Proof Full Set's melt value
(for its seven 90% silver coins) is currently $26.60.
(the 'price' I pay to gaze upon the Shield Cent and Lincoln Dollar Proofs!)

Over the past three years spot silver has increased by about 50% whereas spot gold has almost doubled. If the ratio of silver to gold means anything and if gold stays at its current level(A lot of ifs) then silver should be a third higher than it is now.

Something is wrong.

Did I take the wrong starting date.
Other factors at play? gold being a safe haven in times of currency uncertainty.
As they say in Yorkshire England There's nought as queer as folk.

Looks like its all a guessing game to me so I will stick to the current price of around $20

fistfulladirt: What you say is OK. I have been collecting all coins from the invention of coinage in the 6th cent. BC until modern times, for 40 or so years. So my look at the gold to silver ratio has been over the last 2600 years or so, and what the availability of those metals has had on minting policy.

In ancient Greek times, in about 360 BC gold was discovered at a place called Pella, in Macedonia. Before then, the ratio was about 15 to 1, after that time, it had dropped to as low as 10 to 1. This was the gold that in part, and including the capture of vast amounts of Persian gold, was why Alexander the Great was able to go on the invasion of Southern Asia, as he did.

Silver was a relative rarity during the early Byzantine Empire, the circulating currency was mainly bronze and gold. Islamic gold was relatively more common during the same period. Gold was almost non existent as a circulating currency from the end of the Roman Empire until the Renaissance, in Western Europe.

In another era of history vast amounts of silver were discovered in South America by the Conquistadors. That discovery also greatly affected the gold to silver ratio, and thus minting policy. Gold was also captured, from the Incas but not anything like the value of the silver that was mined in Bolivia.

Huge amounts of silver were discovered in the 1870's in the Comstock Lode in the U.S.; the result was the minting of huge amounts of silver dollars. I can't say too much about this, because I am not a specialist on American history. Others on this Forum are far more qualified than me, although I have taken a passing interest in the discovery of gold in 1849 at Suttor's Mill in California.

The current main influence on the gold to silver ratio in modern times has been the withdrawal of silver from the world's circulating currencies and so the demand for it has been relatively less.

Gold has not been in circulation since just before WW1, but gold bullion coins were minted after that, until many nations came off the gold standard in 1933. Most gold bullion is now in bar form, although India is currently the biggest consumer of gold in jewellery form. Silver has many more industrial applications than gold.

The next "magic barrier" for silver would be $25.

Gold's "big one" would be at $1500.

Unless industry picks up and industrial demand outstrips production. From a lot of what I have read lately,usage in the healthcare fields may end up being the real driving force over the next few years

I do think it will go back below $20 before very long, but I think that in the long term, it will be mostly above $20 simply because there is x amount of silver available and that number is not going anywhere but down.