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 Replies: 13 / Views: 1,642 |
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Valued Member
Cyprus
349 Posts |
Hi how does the silver price move with the dollar, stock markets and gold during the ups and downs over the last 100 years? Regards, Ozzie  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1450 Posts |
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Valued Member
Canada
442 Posts |
You might get some info on the silver stackers forum. Plus, alot of the members are from Australia!
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Valued Member
 Cyprus
349 Posts |
there must be some type of pattern. It seems to be doing very well at the moment. Maybe its time to get out of silver soon!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1450 Posts |
There probably are some patterns but there are so many variables that drawing correlations will be difficult. As an example,usually gold moves down as the stock market moves up,gold being used as a safe haven. Look at the last couple of months and you will see that correlation hasn't worked.Why? because of inflation fears and jitters over the coming"correction"in stocks. Many people will flee to bonds when the stock market drops,rather than gold,however,with bond yields so low due to QE2 gold is more attreactive. In other words,we are in uncharted territory and any historical correlations just may not apply,I don't like simple correlations do you much good if you are comparing the wrong parameters. If you look at weather charts for your area you would probably find that precipitation occurs more often on a given day of the week but what is the correlation? I am just saying,be careful what and why things correlate.
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Valued Member
Cyprus
349 Posts |
yep..definitely in unchartered territory.
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Valued Member
United States
425 Posts |
I posted this about 3 months ago...........
"I ran alot of numbers/dates but the short story is.......
In 2004 Gold was going about $400 an oz. and Silver was $6 an oz.
Looks like in 2011 Gold will hit $1400 an oz. and Silver $30 an oz.
SO, Is Silver a better investment than Gold right now?
In 2004 it took almost 67 oz.'s of Silver to get one oz. of Glod.
Now you only need just under 47 oz.'s to get one oz. of Gold?"
I ran the numbers aqgain two nights ago...... now the ratio is 41.5 oz.'s of Silver to 1 oz of Gold!
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
12437 Posts |
You cannot really go back 100 years because gold and silver were essentially fixed commodities until 1971 and then their value was finally free to float with the market as the PMs were untied from the world's currencies.
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Valued Member
Cyprus
349 Posts |
silver buys more gold. thats an interesting trend. I wander how close that trend will get.
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Valued Member
United States
425 Posts |
With Gold/silver closeing today....... That means it now takes 40.17 oz.'s of silver to match 1 oz. of gold!
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Valued Member
Canada
442 Posts |
If we ever reach 20:1 GSR I might be tempted to get some of the yellow stuff :)
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1450 Posts |
vinnycoin,I just heard an"expert" today predict the GSR will go to 15:1 by the end of 2012. His argument is that gold is going to stall and silver will take off. I don't know that I buy his analysis but he may be right.
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Valued Member
United States
425 Posts |
As of close today Ratio is............39.9!!
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Valued Member
United States
299 Posts |
The historic price ratio between silver and gold is about 16/1.
This is based on estimates and historic trends showing that approximately sixteen times as much silver gets taken out of the earth and here is gold harvested, as well as the fact that there is approx sixteen times as much in the markets and storage around the world.
Stands to reason that something sixteen times moire scarce - gold - would be sixteen times as pricy, and that is hw the ratio has been for most of world history, but somehow it got tweaked off over the last generation.
Early in American history we pegged a ratio of 15.5/1 while the European markets were trading more realistically at 15.9/1
The past couple o years,the fed, along with JPM has been acting to suppress the price of silver while manipulating the price of the American dollar. The chief vehicle they have been using is to short the silver futures. Those shorts are coming unwound over the past couple of weeks now as reality gives them a nice 8itchslap. This trgger, combined with fears over the middle east and north Africa, oil prices and inflation in general is moving gold higher, and silver is moving faster, as it generally oes, being more volatile.
If Gold moves to fifteen hundred and silver keeps closing the gap toward the historic ratio, you will see much higher silver prices. If it only gets to 20/1 with gold at 1500, the silver will be at 75. None of this is unrealistic IMO.
If all h3! breaks loose and folks go to panio mode or we do see hyperinflaton, silver will seem chap at a hundred dollars an once
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Replies: 13 / Views: 1,642 |
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Posted 03/01/2011 1:05 pm
