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 Replies: 64 / Views: 6,039 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
601 Posts |
I posted a contest centering around 2 coins which were, and can be found in circulation. When I was drawn to die varieties 20 years ago, NOBODY dealt with them, there was no Cherrypicker's Guide nor coin forums. It was like feeling my way through things in the dark. In the last decade, our niche of die varieties has mushroomed, interest is stronger than ever before! The 1972-P DDO #4 has been well known for years, yet very few examples have ever surfaced. Just a couple of years ago, this coin could have been purchased for under $500. When an example sold at auction in Jan of 2009, it caught the headlines of coin newspapers, bringing $2,250. This is a highly coveted variety, it wouldn't surprise me if the known examples of this coin are fewer than the 1969-S doubled die. The 1992-D Close AM is eclipsed in rarity only by it's Philadelphia counterpart for the business strike AM varieties. This is another example of a coin which has been offered on the open market for under $1,000 and now sells for many times that. There are thought to be fewer than 30 examples of the '92 Close AM from both mints What drives the strong prices of both coins is the fact that they're listed in The Cherrypicker's Guide to Rare Die Varieties. PCGS will only certify RedBook and FS (cherrypicker's) varieties. PCGS has a very loyal and strong following of collectors. Their holders bring the strongest market prices and PCGS Registry collectors influence the market certified die varieties strongly. Some food for thought- Do you think that the high values of some rare varieties are inflated, or just starting to catch up to where they should be. We are in a time when the values of key date coins have fallen, nearly without exception. Other than the reasoning cited, how does one explain the exponentially higher values for many die varieties? Are die varieties a valid investment when purchased by a knowledgeable collector? Lots of directions to go- what are your thoughts on the Market? |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3507 Posts |
Hi All, I have been in the die variety field for over 30 years:-) and we are finally coming into our own:-) It was doing well as much as 20 years ago when folks like Ken Potter and I were selling them. Ken still sells them, while I keep collecting them and adding them to my "stash" :-) Years ago, I sold many to a dealer in Texas who sold them all over the country and I use to sell a ton of them on ebay in the nineties. Coppercoins has been into die varieties for quite a long time also. He knows as much about them as the best in the field. There was and is a core of die variety nuts that have kept pushing these coins into the forefront of collecting. I am thrilled to see that we have developed a huge following over the years:-) A point to be made on the 1972P DDO#4 is that the higher price was obtained because a specific collector was fighting to add one to his set of 1972 Doubled Dies. It is a tough one to locate but in my humble opinion, the price was inflated by deep pockets at the time of that auction. There was a demand by one person that may not be duplicated. I'm not trying to influence anyone's "guesstimates" and the auction of the PCGS coin may go well but there has to be a very interested bidder in order to push up the price:-) The rarest 1972 era DDO is actually a 1972 S DDO business strike that I discovered about ten years ago. To date, I know of only one beside the discovery coin that I have. My discovery coin is pictured in Allen and Potters "Strike it Rich with Pocket Change". I think that the values of some die varieties are inflated. Many are influenced by the numbers of known coins listed in some of the guides. Rarity scales are used that are in no way accurate. For example, there are die varieties that are considered extremely rare but if I told you how many of some of them I had, the rarity numbers as they are now would be totally useless. There is another collector/dealer that slowly releases another "rare" DDO and he will likely not run out of stock anytime soon. Don't ask me who or what the coins are as we keep the specifics close to our chests. In the overall scheme of things, some die varieties are as rare as some of the classic rarities out there. Others are in dealer or collector hoards and others are yet to be discovered. Keep in mind the high prices of the 1995 Lincoln Cent DDO, until they turned up all over the place. Keep in mind the $1000+ price tags on the Washington dollars with no edge lettering until they were popping up everywhere. Some die varieties or errors can be real "dogs" if you bought them before their value was really established. On the other hand, Once a real rarity or demand has been established, such as seen with the 1969 S Lincoln DDO or the classic 1955 Lincoln DDO, a die variety can be a great investment. It's like any other thing with numismatics....you have to know what you are doing or you can lose your shirt:-) Have Fun, Bill Edited by foundinrolls
03/13/2011 7:23 pm
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
601 Posts |
So well said Bill! Overall, seeing varieties get the recognition we feel they deserve is incredibly validating.
As in "I'm not the crazy one after all!"
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3592 Posts |
Quote:
There was a demand by one person Not familiar with details of that auction, but can you explain how one person ran the price up ? Having only become interested in varities last October, I'm new to the game except for the 55,72,and 83 doubled dies that were pretty hard to ignore.I will have to say that varieties are becoming an obsession simply because there is so much more to learn. As for the market, right now that doesn't concern me because I am simply interested in accumulating. I believe the internet is helping the market increase as the information continues to spread and interest increases. What I would really like to see is the album makers creating a special album for varieties. Liveandie,my daughter might argue the crazy point....she seems to think that sitting at the coffee table looking at pennies every day puts me in that category.  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1256 Posts |
Good reading. Thank you. Didn't realize the 92 CAM was so rare. I always look :) Quote:
sitting at the coffee table looking at pennies every day  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3170 Posts |
I believe with more and more people pulling coppers, searching for die varieties just comes naturally. Searching for key dates like the old days is not as profitable as it once was, and anybody can find 1 or 2 of the many die varieties with a little searching, thus increasing the popularity. Not many key date coins being found to my knowledge.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
958 Posts |
I read about that 72 dd04 breaking records and selling for more then even some of the 72DD auctions.
Someone posted on the internet that it was a fake run up auction with dealers getting together to drive the prices up higher on certian coins, then dump theirs on the market after price guides get adjusted with the new over inflated prices.
If I recall it went something like this , 3-4 dealers all had 72 dd04 coins setting in cases worth $400-500 each then decide to make that coin inflate in value.They bought up as many as they could at shows for a year or two getting ready for the " price jump "
One dealer list a 72 dd04 on hertige and the 3-4 other dealers all bid the price up like crazy.
The sell price finishes lets say $2,000 the sale is done.
After the auction is over the dealer that sold the coin to the buying dealer . Gives back the money and gets back the coin.
The total auction costed the dealers 10% auction fee. $200 or around 50$ each if 4 all took place in the runup auction.
Now these 3-4 dealers set back wait for the price guides and collectors to reconize this new price.
Now there coins just trippled in value from $400-500 each to $2,000 each.
I remember reading in on a forum and it listed names of dealers/coin guru's invloved in the run up and what coins they did it with.
I remember reading it then it was removed.It was never mentioned or talked about after that agian.
maybe their was no truth to the guys claim or maybe to much truth who knows
This is the first time I've seen that 72ddo4 auction mentioned with its price shattering record just thought id mention what one other person said was the reason it trippled invalue, wether its true or not who knows
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3184 Posts |
I think it will be like the morgan/peace vams. They used to be a HUGE demand for them, now I don't think there is that much demand as much.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3507 Posts |
What coppertop wrote is pretty much it. Also, besides the real auctions where that happens, ebay is noted for shills running up the process so that a moderately priced coin suddenly has a new value after a few shills bid up the prices. This is the reason I just collect die varieties and then get the new ones that I find listed. I don't sell much anymore. There are folks who are major experts that still sell and I have confidence in them to keep that part of the hobby active and moving in the right direction. I can hope that the coins I collect increase in value but I don't concern myself with that. Also, finding the coins in rolls allows me to add coins to my collection at face value so basically anything the coin is worth is a jackpot. This is not to say that some die varieties are not extremely rare and valuable. Some are! There are some fantastic coins to be found. The problem comes in when I see dealers other than the experts selling coins that are machine doubled as doubled dies. (I'm not saying that there is anyone here. I am talking about coins I see in cases at coin shows all the time.) Many dealers are clueless and just sell anything that looks doubled for good money no matter what it is. So many people are disappointed when I look at a collection of clunkers that they purchased as doubled dies from a clueless dealer. The toughest thing on the planet is to evaluate a collection and have to tell someone that a collection is worth about face value when they spent hundreds or even thousands putting it together. Some folks I've met planned to retire by selling the coins they had collected only to find out that the coins were worth a good dinner and not a world cruise. That pains me terribly as they had their hopes dashed by me because of purchases they made from other dealers selling junk as the good stuff. I hate being in that position. It is how the coin collecting hobby is being strangled to death. Dealers who are clueless and the knuckleheads selling coins on TV are killing the hobby, in the long run. Compound that with grading companies that are clueless who slab die varieties and errors incorrectly and you can see why I sit and scratch my head while watching some weird things go on in the die variety and error field. It is often noted in a colleagues columns that certain error types are often mislabeled that are slabbed by major grading companies. I will note that those same companies slab a goodly number of die varieties incorrectly as well. I've seen them slab junk as something good while sending back coins to folks unslabbed that are actually nice examples of genuine die varieties. The lack of knowledge out there is staggering with only a few folks really knowing what they are doing. That is why these coin forums are extremely helpful as we who are familiar with die varieties and errors really do want to teach folks what to look for so that they have the knowledge needed to thrive in this area of the hobby. There are specialists in this hobby that frequent this forum that are willing to pass on their knowledge at no charge:-) and you can't beat a free education if you are willing to take it:-) Have Fun, Bill |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
601 Posts |
FoundInRolls makes THE MOST IMPORTANT POINT THERE IS to learn about coins- KNOW WHAT YOU'RE BUYING!
I too have purchased from collections where the owner has spent incredible sums of money only to realize a fraction of what he spent when he sells. Whether key dates or varieties, KNOW what you're buying! One example is a guy who had LOTS of key date coins, all were corroded, holed or otherwise severely damaged. I couldn't get him to comprehend, that no matter how rare the coin is, when it's damaged it's only worth a fraction of it's normal value. Same collector spent literally tens of thousands of dollars slabbing common coins in an attempt to get ultra high grades (with SEGS!). This collector only saw a small fraction of what he spent on his collection. That's a lot of wasted money and wasted effort.
Bottom line is that you MUST know about what you're purchasing. If you only cherrypick, know what you've got. Even if you find a couple of real varieties, when it's time to sell, they'll get completely overlooked if they're in a sea of machine doubled coins. Know what's valuable and why.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
601 Posts |
I had to pull this thread out to prove my point- There truly IS a strong market for these die varieties- suggestions that the values of the '72 Die #4 are artificially inflated are silly. Yes- it's a heck of a lot of money to pay for a relatively minor coin, but it fills a hole that most serious collectors have in their collection. I am very familiar with the market for die varieties, absolutely yes- some varieties are indeed marketed and their values manipulated at times, but these are coins with a population which allows them to be marketed. It's hard to imagine that a handful of dealers got together and set out a plan to inflate a coin which has a known population of less than 20.....all I'm saying is that if one were to attempt such a thing, there are a hundred different varieties that would produce far greater results than a coin that comes up for sale every couple of years. On another note- I was absolutely BLOWN AWAY by the price my 1943 DDO FS-103 quarter brought- $3,900 in AU-53. But again, there's a very simple explanation for this- lack of supply and strong demand. I discovered that out of the top 10 PCGS Registry Sets for Washing Quarters, NONE of them had this coin. And when it came up for sale, there were several very determined bidders. RARITY and DEMAND, the 2 most important factors to arriving at value. Overall, the market for rare die varieties is stronger than it's ever been. While Key Date coins have sunk in value 30% or more, record prices are constantly being set for rare varieties. This is a great sense of validation, all my local dealers still regard me as the crazy guy who likes minor errors! lol |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
958 Posts |
what key dates have lost 30% invalue ?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
601 Posts |
09-S Indian, 09-SVDB, 14-D, 16-D Mercury, 21 and 21-D Mercury, 1932-D and 32-S quarters, 1921 Halves, 1893-S Dollar.......Pick a series, look at the top Key Dates. Look at market prices 3 years ago, prices were strong, economy was good, demand was high. 3 years later we're in a much more bleak economy. When a collector is in a pinch, he sells his high dollar coins to get through. Every decent sized dealer I know has a dozen 09-SVDBs. You think mint state 1914-D cents are nearly non existant? Go to any major coin show, you'll be blown away to see how many are out there, available for sale. Tough economic times force expensive coins back into a coin dealer's stock. When the public opinion of our economic state improves, so will consumer confidence......this is one of the simplest laws of the coin market. Knowing this can help a person to do very well in coins, and keeps one from purchasing coins on a market downswing.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
7629 Posts |
I'm going to keep this short, because honestly I have not read the entire thread and don't have time to do so right now. Sometimes even I need the condensed version.
The big boom in die variety values owes itself largely to the fact that PCGS has included the major varieties in registry sets over the past couple of years. Key coins have been there all along, so they don't have the market push they would in a strong economy, but everyone who knows anything about die varieties knows that for the better part the major die varieties are ten times rarer than key date coins any day of the week. Now that they can get 'points' from a grading service for dumping their loot on doubled dies, they gotta be the first in line. End of story.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3507 Posts |
Hi, I just want to add to my comments a bit by saying that the rarity of die varieties is a function of how many coins were produced from an individual die. Then it is influenced by how many of a particular coin is found either in sets, rolls or in the old days ...bags. When a coin is interesting, like the 1974 D DDO Kennedy...it gets listed in the " Red Book". A listing helps to create demand but Let me tell you...it's not a rare coin. When a coin is listed in the Cherrypickers's Guide...it is indeed interesting and in some cases rare. In other cases, there are numbers of known coins listed that are supposed to imply rarity and those numbers are invalid. In some cases, I have twice as many examples of some coins here as they have listed as being known. In one case, I have 115 examples of a particular coin that is listed as less than 10 known. In another case, a supposedly rare coin is stashed away in someone's collection and there were more than 200 of them found when they were originally stashed away. All I'm saying is that...Yes...Die Varieties are definitely much more rare than the run of the mill coin of a particular date in a series so they have value...BUT...don't be fooled by rarity numbers. A "rare" coin can be found in huge numbers in a bag of coins tomorrow. Also, the known numbers of a coin are a far cry from what is out there. No one I know who works with die varieties is keeping a list of reports to keep accurate totals of who has what and how many of what they have. So...What is rare and what isn't....who knows? At least I have a better idea than most:-) Have Fun, Bill Edited by foundinrolls
03/22/2011 12:54 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
601 Posts |
I couldn't agree with you more Bill, pop reports are in no way indicative of a coin's actual population. And that is one of the main factors driving certified prices for certain TPGs.
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Replies: 64 / Views: 6,039 |
Posted 03/13/2011 7:26 pm
