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Why The Silver Market Has Gone Nuts

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Pillar of the Community
RPT's Avatar
United States
921 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2011  10:59 am Show Profile   Bookmark this topic Add RPT to your friends list Get a Link to this Message Number of Subscribers
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BrickellCat's Avatar
United States
558 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2011  11:28 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add BrickellCat to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'm still buying!
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JackB's Avatar
United States
1064 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2011  11:29 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add JackB to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Interesting article, thanks for posting. Seems non-committal, like many others; just no good answers, no one can really say what's going to happen. I like the conspiracy theory myself!
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hockingzig's Avatar
United States
1450 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2011  11:30 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hockingzig to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
As I have been saying the last couple of weeks,let's maintain perspective on why we own precious metals. If you are protecting your wealth from a falling dollar and worldwide inflation,then don't panic,the system is working the way it should. If you were playing the lottery with silver you might end up being disappointed. If you are planning for economic collapse,sell high and buy some non-perishable food first then reinvest the remainder in PM's. Have a good day all!
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2011  12:47 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I like the conspiracy theory myself! - JackB


LOL, Jack! I'm not much of a conspiracy theory guy. It just seems to me that WAY too much credibility is placed on those who would carry out such things. Human nature being what it is, someone ALWAYS blabs, so keeping a secret is about the most difficult thing there is. And no real conspiracy can survive the light of day and public scrutiny for very long.

If we want to really know why silver is moving up in price so quickly, all we need do is look long and hard at the fundamentals... production and demand, geo-political problems, falling US dollar, etc. Add to that, the silver ETFs are hoarding a HUGE amount of silver in various vaults around the world. That silver is just sitting there, collecting dust, and is unavailable for any other use. Removing that much of anything from the free market always pushes prices higher. Large volumes of silver sold into the market to take profits will push the price down for a while but it should soon stabilize, recover, and then move even higher because the fundamentals of supply and demand have not changed.
Edited by Ed_B
04/25/2011 12:53 pm
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TenSense's Avatar
United States
364 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2011  12:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add TenSense to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Anytime I see someone use a phrase like "silverbug" describing the proponent of a stance they disagree with, their credibility drops several points in my book. How can I expect them to provide unbiased opinions when they are openly deriding others and showing that their analysis has emotional weight behind it?
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2011  12:57 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I agree, TenSense. I wonder just how much of that kind of comment is derision and how much is pure envy? Anyone who has owned silver or gold that they bought 2-3 years or more ago doesn't really care what others think of their massively successful investment. As they say, "The best revenge is living well".
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RPT's Avatar
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921 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2011  3:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add RPT to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
The terms "silverbug" and "goldbug" have been around forever in the investment community. I don't think they are necessarily derogatory.
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stewart's Avatar
United States
1126 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2011  8:39 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add stewart to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
If we want to really know why silver is moving up in price so quickly, all we need do is look long and hard at the fundamentals... production and demand, geo-political problems, falling US dollar, etc. Add to that, the silver ETFs are hoarding a HUGE amount of silver in various vaults around the world. That silver is just sitting there, collecting dust, and is unavailable for any other use. Removing that much of anything from the free market always pushes prices higher. Large volumes of silver sold into the market to take profits will push the price down for a while but it should soon stabilize, recover, and then move even higher because the fundamentals of supply and demand have not changed.

ED_B,
Could not agree with you more. I think the fundamental reasons
have been some of the most overlooked reasons for the current
position of precious.
Here are just a few of my thoughts

The incredible race around the globe to gather gold and silver by countries
and their population. Along with some rather large institutions
While the race to the bottom in the values in fiat currency is still taking place.

A large portion of the planet is in the midst of revolt at one level or another
Major in the Middle East, still at the heavy protest stage in Europe, and the
beginning of the protest stages in the U.S.
Those in power are still laying gas on the ground (Reasons for Revolt) in Europe an the U.S.
all it is going to take is a spark. Tunisia started with one person and one act of
revolt to set the whole Country on fire followed closely by the rest of the Middle East.

The gathering storm to replace the U.S. Dollar as the Default Currency of the world.

Legislation in more than one State here in the United States to make Gold and Silver
legal tender for debt, passing and being signed into law.

The growing separation between the price between Paper Silver and Physical Silver
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sel_69l's Avatar
Australia
21786 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2011  9:36 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add sel_69l to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Very difficult to know when to sell anything at exactly the right time during a spike. Just cut the top of the spike off to get some idea of the real price.

I was lucky once, with some insurance shares I was given. There was a spike with these, and I had no idea. I reasoned that I had no idea about the insurance industry, and so should not be an investor. I sold $20,000 worth of shares at $21, and six months later, they were $6. They never recovered, and are still around $6, ten years later.

There are a lot of investment tools around on the Internet now, for free. So you should use them. For the current overheated silver market, I frequently look at the:
'Kitco 200 day moving average'. And I do not consider myself a silver investor.
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Ed_B's Avatar
United States
4008 Posts
 Posted 04/25/2011  10:52 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I think the fundamental reasons have been some of the most overlooked reasons for the current
position of precious. - Stewart

The incredible race around the globe to gather gold and silver by countries and their population. Along with some rather large institutions While the race to the bottom in the values in fiat currency is still taking place.

A large portion of the planet is in the midst of revolt at one level or another.

The gathering storm to replace the U.S. Dollar as the Default Currency of the world.

Legislation in more than one State here in the United States to make Gold and Silver
legal tender for debt, passing and being signed into law.

The growing separation between the price between Paper Silver and Physical Silver


Thanks, Stewart. Your comments are spot on as far as I can see. All of these things are affecting the prices of PMs but especially silver, as it is the one that is lowest in cost and affordable by more people than any other. And they ARE buying in quantity too!

If we follow the current currency crisis of confidence, we will come to its logical conclusion and that is with the government beating the fiat drum as hard as they can and the American people ignoring them en masse and converting their fiat currency into PMs as quickly as they can.

The Fed is creating inflation at a substantial rate. They are pretending that they are not and that the rising prices of commodities are somehow not their fault. Anyone with an IQ above room temperature is very well aware that printing trillions of dollars in new currency while its primary backing (US productivity) is not increasing only leads to an excessive number of dollars chasing the same or fewer goods and services. How can this not be inflationary? Answer: It can't. Inflation MUST be produced when the growth rate in the money supply exceeds the growth rate of the economy.

Next, look at the Fed's record of timing their short-term interest rate increases and decreases such that the economy benefits from their stewardship. It is absolutely abysmal. They have not had a successful interference with the US economy since the Carter era when Paul Volcker was the Fed Chairman. He set interest rates so high that inflation was crushed out of the economy, paving the way for Reagan to come in and have 19 year uber bull market. That took a lot of guts on Volcker's part because it was politically very unpopular but the end result was worth it for the nation. I don't see that kind of guts anywhere in politics today and certainly not at the Fed.
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