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 Replies: 37 / Views: 2,955 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
648 Posts |
I think purchasing 1 oz of gold for under or @ $1,500 is a good investment long term. I just have a feeling 10 years from now people will be saying I WISH I bought gold in the "$1ks". My buddy says when Gold hits $1200 (which he thinks it will) he will jump in. This US financial burden of a monster, default or not, is going to take some time to get out of and at minimum control to a reasonable level. Fact, it will take time and it's not happening over night. The debt ceiling will be temporarily raised while we figure out our credit, financial & economic mess. Countries like China & India are buying Gold (and Silver) and they are not touching US anything. Gold IS going up while Silver scoots along up with it. The gold charts don't lie. At this point in time in our lives there is too much world political drama and financial tension. All of which makes me (and other people) seek a safe haven in a PM's...just my random thoughts.  Edited by tripncoins
07/30/2011 12:37 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
All good points Desertgem, and I guess I keep thinking "silver suppression", as I feel silver should be much closer to 20 to 1 ratio, which would put it around 81 dollars an oz.. So I figure 40 an oz. is a real bargain right now, and probably will not last long.... In fact, I would bet a truck loud of dying dollars that this weekend may be all of our last chance to buy some silver short of 40 an oz., as it closed a few cents shy of 40. And if you are buying on ebay, you might as well figure to spend at least 50 bucks right now for 1 oz. of .9999 silver.... Edited by Silverhawk74
07/30/2011 01:21 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
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Puts on GLD would be a good hedge if one has a lot of gold, but dangerous if the US was downgraded even though the debt ceiling was lifted, as I think that is the "Hammer" rather than the actual debt ceiling Thanks for the input Gem.  I sometimes do forget about the downgrade hammer yet to fall (although I've heard some say it is being priced in already), and there is no guarantee it would just be from AAA to AA either. Between my wife and I we have about 350 shares of GLD so I've bought a little protection on the down side, on and off. I was looking back through my records and last time I did the best with GDX puts. The mining stocks seem to track gold well on the down side but don't go up as fast. On 4/28/11 I bought GDX 5/21 expiration puts for 37 cents and sold them 5/12 for $3.55...that sure eased the pain a bit from the drop in GLD  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
When I look at the recent gold price surge, I keep thinking that if it would pull back a bit, I would make a substantial investment in it. No luck with that so far, though. It either moves higher or sideways for a while but no real pull back to speak of. On the other hand... for gold to pull back would mean that the stock market and / or the US dollar was surging higher. It's pretty hard to imagine that these days, considering the condition of the US economy right now. Fox News was just saying that there are fears of a double dip recession amongst the Wall Street crowd. Huh? Lots of folks who don't work on Wall Street are still suffering from the 1st dip, let alone any following dip(s). To them, we are still in the recession of 2008.  If a debt deal does get hammered out at the last minute, it is likely that we will see a "relief rally" on Wall Street for a few days to a week afterwards. Shortly after that, it is likely that the euphoria will wear off and people will start to realize that all of our problems have not been solved and that the US economy is still pretty sick. This will be confirmed when Uncle Ben starts the helos warming up again. Between these two times should be a good opportunity to gather up some gold and silver. Watch for it.  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
931 Posts |
ebay gold prices are going crazy. It definitely looks like there is some panic buying going on. I bought a proof Buffalo a month ago for $1650 and it looks like it would bring very close to $2000. I was going to pick up another ounce proof but the United States Mint price for a proof is now $1910. Looks like I may be going the St Gaudens route to add an ounce. There is essentially a $300 premium on a coin ounce of gold. Bullion bars are even around $1800. I'm glad to hold what I do but I want to stack some more. $2000 gold is almost reality at this point and spot price means nothing.
Edited by junior e
07/30/2011 7:12 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
Edited by GoThunder
07/30/2011 7:33 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
860 Posts |
Quote:
Between my wife and I we have about 350 shares of GLD so I've bought a little protection on the down side, on and off. I was looking back through my records and last time I did the best with GDX puts. The mining stocks seem to track gold well on the down side but don't go up as fast. Sometimes, people forget where the gold comes from initially. GG would have had a wonderful quarter , except for natural disaster problems which they said would reduce by 6% their gold output this next quarter, so the stock crashed the last few days. But for long term investors, believing that gold will still be above 1500 an oz, it just means the same gold will be coming out when gold may be significantly higher. GG has a low cost, with most of last quarters increase due to fuel prices. I have GG calls for Jan12, and think I might consider some of the Jan13 Calls if GG drops a little more. IMO. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
Yeah after looking at some charts of GDX its already corrected down some...so now I'm looking more at buying puts in GLD if it spikes up some. Miners got hit already I guess.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
860 Posts |
This next week or 2 will set the direction and amount of change in PM, I think. And no one really knows which it will go, so I will wait and see. Tomorrow night's asian market will give an indication of direction. I think your S&P short play will be interesting. Even with a rating reduction, I still think that most of the Euro countries will be harder hit than the US. Not a popular thesis, but IMO :) I would be lean on GLD puts until you see movement or a large increase in selling of GLD. Getting caught in a $20+ rise in gold would hurt.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3670 Posts |
Well it looks like the 536 blind mice have decided to raise the debt 2.4 trillion, 1 now and 1.4 in a half year or so. Now then, was that so hard, draw up your little plan and agree on the small fry stuff, and sign the papers. I will have to really laugh, if it falls through however at the last minute.... See, I predicted the future. I think I will get me a crystal ball down at Eddy's trick shop, an open myself up a Silver Hawk fortune teller shop , payments only excepted in gold and silver....  Of Course me predicting they would raise the debt ceiling at the last minute, is kinda like me predicting that day will break tomorrow around 6 A.M.... http://news.yahoo.com/stab-debt-lim...4034740.htmlEdited by Silverhawk74
07/31/2011 02:11 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
931 Posts |
Yeah, they're gong to cut spending by 917 billion. They will spend the same at the Federal level and make the States cover more of Medicare, Social Security, and hundreds of other Federal mandates.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
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I think your S&P short play will be interesting. Even with a rating reduction, I still think that most of the Euro countries will be harder hit than the US. Not a popular thesis, but IMO :) I guess Dennis Gartman seems to think the same, he's recommending shorting the EUR vs just about any currency including the USD. Yeah I've recovered a lot of my losses in SDS this last week, one more good down day and I'll be back to even. I was way too early with that trade, but I was going on vacation and wanted down side protection.  Edited by GoThunder
07/31/2011 09:04 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
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They will spend the same at the Federal level and make the States cover more of Medicare, Social Security, and hundreds of other Federal mandates. Well, good luck with that! Most of the states are in pretty crummy financial shape too... and, unlike the feds, they do not have a printing press handy. If the states don't have it, they CAN'T pay it whether the feds mandate it or not. As to the debt deal... the result that seems to be coming out of all the squealing and yowling is about as most of us on here suspected... lots of sound and fury signifying nothing. If this is the best that they can do at reducing our huge budget deficit and addressing the national debt, we are well and truly done. Just stick a fork in us and be done with it! |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
860 Posts |
Gold opening down @ 1617 currently. Expecting all will be OK ?
Also the USD is up and the euro down
Edited by desertgem
07/31/2011 6:21 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
830 Posts |
IMHO I still don't see an agreement happening by the Tuesday dead line, even though it looks like the S&P futures seem optimistic about it getting done. Call me a pessimist I guess.
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Replies: 37 / Views: 2,955 |
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Posted 07/30/2011 01:20 am
