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 Replies: 21 / Views: 2,065 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1285 Posts |
Any idea how many graded coins are cracked out and resubmitted for grading again and again? Per my readings a lot of coins in the 63 and up category are constantly being opened up / cracked out and being resubmitted.
Is this practice of resubmitting over stating the number of graded coins?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3402 Posts |
I don't deal with many slabbed coins, and in fact I've only had two and never submitted any, but I think that resubmissions would have an effect on populations.
One coin sent to TPG#1 is MS-63. Owner gets it back, cracks it out and sends it to TPG#2 who assigns it an MS-65 grade. Same coin is in two population reports. Or it could even be sent back to the same original grader, and maybe the grade is changed!!
KK
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3294 Posts |
Yes, but there is no way of knowing exactly how much.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
17884 Posts |
Let's put it this way. When you go to your next show look in the cases at the PCGS slabs and see what percentage of them are rattler slabs. by the number of coins that PCGS has slabbed about one out of every seven PCGS slabs should be a rattler. You will find that the actual population of rattlers is MUCH lower than this. Why? Because over the years most of them have been cracked out and resubmitted.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
570 Posts |
Quote:
Yes, but there is no way of knowing exactly how much.  There are no accurate records for how many coins have been resubmitted. I'm sure that there might be one coin out there that has probably been resubmitted a dozen times by 3 different TPGs until they got the grade and variety designation that they wanted. |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
5953 Posts |
A while back PCGS offered to buy back the cards from cracked slabs. I seem to remember they got thousands returned and stopped the program fairly quickly. Part of the reasoning behind the offer was to update their population report with more realistic numbers.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1151 Posts |
I know that at the end of the year, some people that constantly do this, sent in all the cracked out slabs.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
870 Posts |
Yep, that's an interesting point. And another argument for NGC's photographing each coin - I LOVE that. If everyone did that, you'd be able to quickly and easily identify the coins trail and come up with better pop and condition census numbers.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
17884 Posts |
Could you? I believe you have to know the certificate number to be able to see the image. So if you have a PCGS slabbed coin, how would you go about finding out if it had been previously submitted if you don't know the other serial number? Same question if you want to know if it used to be in someone else's slab? Now if you could call up all the pictures of a given issue you might be able to trace resubmissions and eliminate duplicates. But like I said I don't believe you can do anything like that.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
1285 Posts |
Is 20% too high of a number being double counted?
From MY understanding it's the 63/64 bucket that could have the greatest disparity as those are the coins being submitted the most again and again.
There is also some higher grades in PL trying for DMPL (Morgans) that get into this game.
Anyone have personal experience / observations of their own of what's (Grades / type of coins) getting resubmitted?
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
14454 Posts |
Quote:
PCGS offered to buy back the cards from cracked slabs I remember them doing this also and remember one person sending in a few hundred himself Quote:
Is 20% too high of a number being double counted? In some cases where the coin is rare or shoots up thousands in the next grade up it may be higher than 50 or 60 percent if not more than this. Here is an example,lets say MS-65 says it has 2500 in its population and 5 in MS-66 and the price difference is $2000.00 between the two grades, there will be a high percentage of those MS-65's that are resubmissions |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
870 Posts |
Conder - that's what I'm saying! If every TPG took high-quality pictures of all of the coins they slabbed, a fingerprinting algorithm could be modified to detect identical coins from a massive database. Then you could have a much better idea of a coin's history and significantly improved pop and cc numbers. It's a massive undertaking, but a worthwhile one imo. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3294 Posts |
I am not sure computer pattern recognition would be able to do this well enough.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
870 Posts |
If the picture is good enough, it would be cake. =)
Every coin up to the 70's have their tell. Even the 70's do if they're imaged on a microscopic level. All you have to do is look for the luster streaks.
For the 69's and lower, they each have their flaws. You relate the flaws vectors to other known fixed vectors for the type and bingo, you have your fingerprint.
Even if a coin is tooled or modified in some way (mishandled), you should be able to narrow your choices significantly and if necessary let a human make the choice based on known history.
All you need is a little bit of math and a fantastic high-resolution 3d scanner or some other equally amazing imaging device.
The modern pro studio cameras or 50megapixel plus. Even phone cameras are 3D. We're not talking rocket science here, just available technologies applied in an aggressive manner over a broad swath. =)
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
17884 Posts |
Your talking about a capability that PCGS has had since the late 80's when they introduced the Expert System. One of the advertised advantages was that it would create the digital fingerprint and be able to recognize a coin if it was resubmitted. Even after they dumped the computer grading portion of the program they could have retained the fingerprinting portion but they dumped it because it would have cut into their profits from resubmissions. When the Secure Plus program was introduced the fingerprinting feature was reintroduced. But it is only used on coins that are submitted for the more expensive Secure Plus service level. If a Secure plus coin is cracked out or one that was submitted but didn't make the cut is resubmitted at the cheaper service level it doesn't go through the fingerprint recognition so they can still keep at least some of the crackout resubmission market. As for creating fingerprints from previously imaged coins I would suspect those fingerprints would be much more questionable.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
584 Posts |
In the book Coin Collectors Survival Manual, One dealer sent back the same coin 26times until he received the grade he wanted. I think 20 percent is a safe guesstimate. I just pulled 5 coins I'm sending back to NGC, theirs no reason why 3 of them didn't come back 70s. The other 2 are perfect candidates for crack outs. The one I'm most POed about is a PF 81 S Type 2 SBA. They screwed me with this 69. I can't help but feel they do it purposely! Knowing I'm going to resubmit it. This way they get the extra $10 - $15. |
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Replies: 21 / Views: 2,065 |
Posted 08/10/2011 08:48 am
