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Pillar of the Community
United States
4901 Posts |
Quote:
Thats true, just kind of interesting how they pretty much know what theyll get back from NGC but not PCGS. One company is very consistent with their grading and it is (should be) easy to predict grade percentages of most quality modern issues. |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
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One company is very consistent with their grading and it is (should be) easy to predict grade percentages of most quality modern issues. I guess. Even if 50 percent of the coins that came from the mint were 70s itd still be possible to order 10k and not end up with a single one depending on what you got shipped. Unlikely but possible |
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Valued Member
United States
384 Posts |
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Even if 50 percent of the coins that came from the mint were 70s itd still be possible to order 10k and not end up with a single one depending on what you got shipped. Unlikely but possible Actually I'll take your bet, because its not just "unlikely" but for all practical purposes it's impossible. If 50% of coins are 70s, that's like saying you toss a coin 10,000 times and get a head every time. In fact that number is so small, that when you put it into google search, their calculator can't even handle it, and just spits out a 0 instead. Try it out, here's the formula: (0.5)^10000 I had to use a scientific calculator to come up with the probability: 5.0123727e-3011 |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
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Actually I'll take your bet, because its not just "unlikely" but for all practical purposes it's impossible. If 50% of coins are 70s, that's like saying you toss a coin 10,000 times and get a head every time.
In fact that number is so small, that when you put it into google search, their calculator can't even handle it, and just spits out a 0 instead. Try it out, here's the formula:
(0.5)^10000
I had to use a scientific calculator to come up with the probability: 5.0123727e-3011
Except youre assuming every coin has a 50 50 chance of ending up a 70 which it doesn't. 50 percent wont end up 70s anyway but for the fun of it lets hypothetically assume they d. A coin struck at the start of a die would have a far greater chance of becoming a 70 than a coin struck at the end of the die. So every coin wouldnt have a 50 50 chance like that formula assumes. Secondly knowing that fact id guess probably around 75% of the 50 would come at the begging or at the very least the first half of a new dies life. Depending on how the coins get mixed up and stored would have a ton to do with it too. I dunno how many coins they press before they decide to send to the assembly line, but if they did it every 1000 coins the vast majority of 70s would more than likely end up near each other and a lot would depend on how lucky you ended up being in the order line for what you got. 250k mintage if for the sake of argument we said 50% were 70s thats 125k of 70s and 125k of everything else. You could most certainly get an order of 1000 coins without a 70 in it with that many non 70s and the other factors, its no as easy as saying you have a 50 50 chance everytime because you dont. Bottom line though being assured a certain amount of 70s or a figure theyre looking to give you just means youre getting special treatment from NGC or they are much easier graders. You cant assume you will get anything besides a 69 till the coins are there and have been examined. In reality probably less than 20 percent of the coins end up 70s and it may be even lower than that if you want to go check pop reports against minatge limits |
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Valued Member
United States
384 Posts |
basebal21, I was trying not to make any assumptions at all, and going strictly by your assumptions: Quote:
Even if 50 percent of the coins that came from the mint were 70s And I am still not convinced by the rest of your math, or reasoning either. Because there is a pretty straight forward mathematical formula for calculating the probability of this, and I just gave it in the above post. What you said here: Quote:
Even if 50 percent of the coins that came from the mint were 70s itd still be possible to order 10k and not end up with a single one Is equivalent to saying you flip a coin 10,000 times in a row and get a head face up every single time. Or if you're a gambler, probability wise you have a better chance of going to a roulette table and betting on red 10000 times in a row and winning every single time, then what you said above. Anyways, going back to the original topic, I am probably getting the last of the sets, as my ship date is 10/31/12.  |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
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And I am still not convinced by the rest of your math, or reasoning either. Because there is a pretty straight forward mathematical formula for calculating the probability of this, and I just gave it in the above post. Youre mathematical formula assumes every coin would be an independent trial with a 50 50 chance of being a 70 or not. Every coin isn't independent, in fact they are very much tied together as every coin a die makes the lower the chance the next one will be perfect. Quote:
Is equivalent to saying you flip a coin 10,000 times in a row and get a head face up every single time.
Or if you're a gambler, probability wise you have a better chance of going to a roulette table and betting on red 10000 times in a row and winning every single time, then what you said above. Again its not the same. Each coin flip is independent of the next. Same with roulette spins. Coins are not independent trials. Youd have to ask someone at the mint but its very logical to assume the majority of 70s will come when a die is fresh before it gets warn. That would mean 70s would come out in groups and then almost entirely disappear until the dies are changed. What happens with those groups has a huge impact on how many 70s youd get or not. If they all get mixed in a lot theyd be spread out, if they get grouped in lots individual lots will be both over and under represented for the proportional amounts of 70s they should have for the over all mintage. As far as I know they do get mixed up, but they dont put them all in a mixer to truely mix them and spread out the 70s otherwise they would be no 70s from the entire lot. If you laid out every coin minted yes itd be a coin flip, in smaller lots its not a 50 50 chance by any means. My point all along was that you dont know what you got until its examined and for NGC to say theyll grade approximately so many doesn't mean theyre being truer to grade, just that theyre either doing the company a favor or are easier graders and possibly both |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4901 Posts |
I REALLY don't want to get in the middle of this one but....
...if you start with the premise that 50% of the coins will be 70's (your statement) then it doesn't matter when they are struck or how much the die is worn....the end result is still 50% 70's
SOooooooo Almostcollectable's math is correct (even though I can't figure out that resulting number)
Your die wear theory kinda assumes that the coins are shipped in the order struck which is not the case....put them all in a bin (figuratively) and pull them out one by one and....yes, you have a 50% chance of getting a 70 or not...your chance of 1000 69's or 1000 70's in a row fits the equation
Edited by Foxwoods Man
07/11/2012 08:00 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1027 Posts |
It might be worth pointing out, for the purposes of this sub-thread, that the average lifetime of proof and RP die is probably in the area of 1000 coins struck. The mint released information that leads one to conclude that uncirculated ASE die average about 3100 coins before being retired. When the 2008 reverse of 2007 was discovered, the mint estimated that 47,000 such coins had been struck because they discovered 15 2007 reverse die among the retired 2008 die sets. That works out to an average of 3133 coins per die pair. I would guesstimate that proof die go about 1600 coins and RP die about 800. Another data point is the ~300 coins that were said to come out of 2009 UHRDE die sets. Many recent fine silver and gold offerings from the mint have been running at or above 50% MS/PR70, the UHRDE being one of the first to do so (both at PCGS & NGC). After seeing what came out of SF in the 2011 sets (most notably the bullion coins), I fully expect that 60% or more of the coins in these sets could reach PR70 grades. |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
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Your die wear theory kinda assumes that the coins are shipped in the order struck which is not the case....put them all in a bin (figuratively) and pull them out one by one and....yes, you have a 50% chance of getting a 70 or not...your chance of 1000 69's or 1000 70's in a row fits the equation That only holds true though is EVERY single one of the coins that was minted was put into the same bin before shipment which we know is not the case from the different shipment dates. If my die theory is correct they also wouldnt be even distributed throughout the bin. Yes if you get every single coin together randomly mixed up its a 50 50 shot but at no point is every single coin in the same bin randomly mixed Quote:
Many recent fine silver and gold offerings from the mint have been running at or above 50% MS/PR70, the UHRDE being one of the first to do so (both at PCGS & NGC). After seeing what came out of SF in the 2011 sets (most notably the bullion coins), I fully expect that 60% or more of the coins in these sets could reach PR70 grades. I stand corrected on how many end up perfect. Thanks for the info clair. My basic point was just that individual lots of coins will have more and less 70s than they should. The 50% is just an average of the hole not a guarantee. If you talking about a lot of 100 coins or even 1000 coins (which is less than .05% of the total mintage) there will be great variations in the amount of 70s through out the individual lots that just average out to around 50% in the end. It doesn't mean every lot contains 50% |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4901 Posts |
You kinda were sunk when you said: Quote:
Even if 50 percent of the coins that came from the mint were 70s itd still be possible to order 10k and not end up with a single one depending on what you got shipped. Unlikely but possible ...which is an untrue premise (the 50% part)...after that everything based on that false assumption would also be incorrect... I'm just having fun here so don't take it seriously....  50% 70's....10,000 coins in a row that are NOT 70's? Possible?...yes...probable?.. absolutely not.... Same deal: If I jump out of a plane at 10,000 feet is there ANY chance I won't splat? Possible?....yes...probable?..absolutely not (there was actually a sky diver whose chute failed to open and he smashed into a barn full of hay and survived)... |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
...which is an untrue premise (the 50% part)...after that everything based on that false assumption would also be incorrect...
I'm just having fun here so don't take it seriously....
50% 70's....10,000 coins in a row that are NOT 70's?
Possible?...yes...probable?.. absolutely not....
Same deal: If I jump out of a plane at 10,000 feet is there ANY chance I won't splat?
Possible?....yes...probable?..absolutely not
(there was actually a sky diver whose chute failed to open and he smashed into a barn full of hay and survived)... Lol I dont, a good debate is always fun. The 10k was a bit of an exaggeration but thats still not even 5% of the total mintage. Youd almost certainly have some 70s in there but one lot could be 75% and another could be 25%, could still have a variety of different percentages in those lots. I dont think to many orders of 10k came in. More realistically were probably dealing with lots of what 500-1000k where at under .05% of the total mintage absolutely anything could be in those lots |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4901 Posts |
...and of course all the sets WE submit will be outliers since they will ALL grade 70  |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Quote:
...and of course all the sets WE submit will be outliers since they will ALL grade 70 I cant figure what happens, I always package up 70s and send them in and somehow get 69s back  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1027 Posts |
You think that's bad, I sent this coin in, not hoping for a perfect grade but to have the obverse mint die error certified. The PR67 grade just added insult to injury when PCGS insisted that there was nothing wrong with the coin. Officially, they did not even offer an explanation, they simply returned the coin graded as you see here. I have to wonder if the PR67 grade is because the obverse just didn't look very good.  P.S. As far as I know, this is still the only example of this error that got out of the mint. It has been three years since I first posted it and no one has come forward with another specimen. Edited by clairhardesty
07/11/2012 11:16 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Clair thats absolutely brutal. Personally Id be tempted to break it out and try again if for nothing else to get better than a 67. Or break it out and take it in person to one of their grading tables. I'm not sure I could resist the temptation with the chance for a 1 of a kind. I've actually been trying to find some MS army half dollars to send in for that exact reason, pcgs has 0 70s in their pop. I know its a long shot and probably wont happen but ill be on cloud 9 if somehow it works
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Posted 07/08/2012 4:53 pm
