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Is There A Half-Life For Coins In Circulation?

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 Posted 03/24/2020  10:25 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tdziemia to your friends list

Quote:
Does anyone know if there's ever been an attempt to estimate/calculate the rate at which coins in regular circulation are lost over time?


Of course the answer turns out to be yes:
https://www.researchgate.net/public...oins_Carried
Edited by tdziemia
03/24/2020 10:27 am
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 Posted 03/24/2020  10:33 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hfjacinto to your friends list
Well I was off on Lincoln Cents, according to the article around 76% are tossed/lost every year. Or maybe they are all in glass bottles saved for eternity.
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 Posted 03/24/2020  1:55 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silver101 to your friends list
So, first of all, thanks for that link @tdziemia - incredible! I guess the answer to all questions is now yes right? I mean, are there any thoughts left that haven't been thought? Also, Journal of Statistical Numismatics...do you have any idea how many of my nerd buttons that pushed? Thanks for making my day!

Stay safe coin weenies: please wash your hands!
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 Posted 03/24/2020  3:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tdziemia to your friends list

Quote:
The circulation rate for one cent coins in the US was 0.34 in 1995 (Gadsby 1996)


Maybe more like 66%?

But remember, we are part of that loss rate every time we pull a wheatie out, or save our change in a jar. It doesn't necessarily mean the coins are lost.
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 Posted 03/24/2020  3:07 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tdziemia to your friends list

Quote:
Journal of Statistical Numismatics...do you have any idea how many of my nerd buttons that pushed?


If I could get more interested in statistics (rather than in the actual coins they represent), maybe my bank account would be healtheir.
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 Posted 03/24/2020  3:08 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add hfjacinto to your friends list

Quote:
Maybe more like 66%?


Ooops typo. (I'm sticking with the typo, NOT that I can't subtract 34 from 100)
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 Posted 03/25/2020  7:13 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Princetane to your friends list
I think a lot of people hoard coins.

It mentioned in a book about NZ Predecimal coins when they were recalled, some denominations had less than half of all the coins turned in and souveniring was rampant.

I would say at least 10% of all coins minted each year are lost at sea, in the ground, accidentally or deliberately destroyed.

As you all know, banknotes is usually recalled when tatty and destroyed. When I visited the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in 2013, one souvenir you could buy was 4 by 6 inch bag about 2 inches (10 x 15 x 5cm) full of minute particles of shredded banknotes, mostly $20s.
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 Posted 03/25/2020  9:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add fortcollins to your friends list
Several factors influence circulation of particular coins or denominations.
Intrinsic devaluation quickly drives out coins with higher intrinsic value (Gresham's Law). This can be seen with CNC replacement of 90% silver coinage in the U.S. and with nickel and plated steel replacement of 80% silver coinage in Canada.
Convenience can drive out coins that are less convenient. Small cent replacement of large cents and nickel five cent replacement of silver five cent coins are examples. The large cents were awkward compared to the small cents, and the tiny fish scales were too easily lost.
Design changes can make earlier designs disappear prematurely. Advent of the Jefferson nickel in 1938 hastened the exit of the Buffalo nickel from circulation. Conversely, popularity of the Kennedy half dollar in 1964 caused their withdrawal from circulation, leaving later date Franklin half dollars still circulating until replacement of the 90% silver coinage made all of them disappear.
Awkward denominations disappear because of the disdain for the denomination. As an example, Twenty Cent coins proved far less popular in commerce than twenty-five cent coins, leading to premature withdrawal of Twenty Cent coins.
Functionally useless denominations disappear because they are not worth circulating. The one cent piece in Canada became that way long before withdrawal of the denomination. They are not functionally circulating in the US either.

A better study would be the lifespan of popular longer-term denominations that have not experienced recent design or metallic changes. In the U.S., that would include Jefferson nickels and CNC Roosevelt dimes.

Just my Two Cents' worth. Oh wait, they don't circulate either.
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 Posted 03/26/2020  07:33 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silver101 to your friends list
Yes for sure. I think when I started thinking about this I was imagining a sort of idealized scenario that eliminates things like what you describe @fortcollins. I think you could only describe a meaningful half life under fairly strict conditions.

So, if Queen Victoria had lived for another century and Canada had continued to mint exactly the same coins as in 1876 straight through to 2000 - no errors, none of the obsessive 1903H large H, small H sort of business. Indeed, none of the H/ no H business either. Everything would have to have been produced at the same Heaton mint by the same guys using the same apparatus. And I guess also prices would have to have stayed the same so that the relative values of 1c, 5c, 10c, 25c and 50c would be fixed.

Still, there's definitely something to the idea: even if all other things *aren't* equal, smaller denominations disappear quicker than larger denominations and high grade 5c tend to be more scare than high grade 50c; even though the numbers minted might be identical. Different theoretical half lives.

I may put this on my next mid-term.....throw my students into a complete death spiral!
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 Posted 03/26/2020  08:03 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tdziemia to your friends list

Quote:
Intrinsic devaluation quickly drives out coins with higher intrinsic value (Gresham's Law).


I understand your point on this, and it rings well with common sense when there are abrupt changes (like from, silver to CuNi), but multiple studies have shown that in normal circumstances, the "loss rate" of low denomination coins is highest.


Quote:
I may put this on my next mid-term.....

@Silver, What do you teach?
Edited by tdziemia
03/26/2020 08:07 am
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 Posted 03/26/2020  11:31 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silver101 to your friends list
Chemical biology of antibiotics...I'm a biochemist. I'm just finishing off a 3rd year undergrad course. The transition to online has been a weird but satisfying little nightmare.
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 Posted 03/26/2020  11:42 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add tdziemia to your friends list

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The transition to online has been a weird but satisfying little nightmare


Yep, me too (General Chemistry and Introductory Organic/Biochem). Double the work right now since I am doing video-conference style lectures, but I also need to post a lot of extra materials for students who don't have the bandwidth to dial in (it's an inner city school). Spent the last day before lock-down photographing steps in some labs so we can do them in "virtual" fashion.
Still haven't figured out how I'll do exams.
Edited by tdziemia
03/26/2020 11:43 am
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 Posted 03/26/2020  12:55 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silver101 to your friends list
Ugh - online exams in the age of wikipedia! Fortunately, my course doesn't have a final... Tons of crap coming in to grade at the moment: essays, ppt slides + script in lieu of their in-class presentations. But it's doable now that the alterations to format are taking care of.
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 Posted 04/08/2020  7:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add fplagge to your friends list
Personally, I cannot walk past a penny without picking it up. I guess I am helping the economy by returning it to the mix.

I admit, however, that I do not recycle really, really pitifully damaged pennies. I usually hoard them until I have a dozen or so and then trash them.
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 Posted 04/09/2020  10:00 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add jbuck to your friends list

Quote:
Personally, I cannot walk past a penny without picking it up. I guess I am helping the economy by returning it to the mix.



Quote:
I admit, however, that I do not recycle really, really pitifully damaged pennies. I usually hoard them until I have a dozen or so and then trash them.
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