What If Kennedy Was Not Killed In 1963?

As an avid fan of US history, I often think about how things would have changed if some event happened differently. Common tropes are an Axis victory in WW-II, a world in which the CSA was successful in succeeding from the USA or other unlikely events. But what if a more likely scenario developed? What if Kennedy served out his term of either 4 or 8 years as President? This could have been the result of some minor event like Oswald being unable to gain access to the building from which he shot Kennedy, or some other thing. What matters here is what would have happened had Kennedy not been assassinated, at least in respect to US coinage. Being a coinage forum after all, this is our focus.

Of course we would not have had the Kennedy half dollar, or at least not starting in 1964. If he served out his term (or terms) whether some future coin would have been produced with his likeness would depend on his legacy. The last president up until that time that had a coin was, of course, FDR with the dime, he also having died in office. FDR however had steered the country thru the end of the Great Depression and WW-II, the likes of which likely would not have marked Kennedy's presidency had other world events played out in a similar fashion as they did in our timeline.

Kennedy was much more popular in death than he was alive. Sure, he was widely admired before he died by many, but he was not the mythical man he was after. Assuming he lived to his early 80's, he would have died sometime in the 1990's, some 30 years after his presidency would have ended in 1965 or 1969.

The Franklin half dollar would have likely remained in circulation. It had been minted since 1948 so would have had to remain so through at least 1972 absent congressional action. Assuming no other beloved figures died suddenly before then we might have the Franklin half still circulating.

Another result of the Kennedy half dollar arriving in 1964 was the immediate hoarding of the new coin. Combined with a sharp rise in silver prices in the same period this meant the end of routing use of the Half Dollar, leading to the quarter to be the main workhorse coin. While the Half Dollar was already less common in circulation by then rising inflation of the 1970's might have raised its presence in circulation had then not been seen as souvenirs of a martyred president.

I also think that had the Franklin half dollar was still minted the coin would have gone to the same cupro-nickel clad composition in 1965 along with the dime and quarter. The main reason for silver remaining in the Kennedy half dollar from 1965 thru 1970 was that some thought it would be demeaning to have a base-metal coin honoring Kennedy, much the same thoughts as preceding the Eisenhower dollar a few years later. Franklin, while a revered figure in his own right, would not have been thought of in that fashion and a clad Half Dollar would not have had the same consideration had he remained on the coin.
Had Kennedy gone on to be a full-term president, and lived out a decent retirement, I doubt he would have been honored on a coin except as part of the Presidential dollar series. I think Franklin would have remained on the Half Dollar until this day and that the Half Dollar would be circulated much like the quarter is now. I think things like the pay phone might have been modified to accept them, along with the dime and either the nickel or quarter.

I think that the best chance of the now extended Franklin half dollar being changed would be in 1970, after Eisenhower's death. Instead of a re-established dollar coin minted to honor Ike, I think it would have been the Half Dollar redesigned with his portrait. Since the coin would had been clad for several years by then I think the controversy over the metal content of the circulation coinage would have had less and impact than in our timeline. It might well had prevented the issuance of any additional large dollars before the SBA's and Golden Dollars were issued in the late 70's.

The Half Dollar coin, prior to 1964, was a working coin. It was the largest in size and value of the circulation coins. Silver Dollars by then had not been minted since the 1930's, and even then, were only minted sporadically. They were more often used as a way to monetize the silver in them and as a store of value to back paper money. I think if Kennedy had not been killed, the Half Dollar would have remained used as it had and be even more so used today. Remember that 50 cents in the early 1960's would buy what about $5 to $6 would today. In other words, a Half Dollar today buys what a nickel did back then.

Coins were useful for substantial purchases back then, today they exist mostly to make change for paper money. Back in the 60's you could put gas in your car, get lunch or buy a Sunday newspaper, all with pocket change. Today you need to fill out a credit application to get a tank of gas, need a debit card to buy lunch and break out some paper bills to buy a Sunday paper that is a fifth as thick as it once was, if you can even find one these days.

I think the reduced amount of cash usage (as a percentage of small purchases) today would not be so pronounced as it has been. How many times have you gone into a quick-mart and watched some teenager use a debit card or his smartphone to buy a candy bar and soda? With Half Dollars still popular I would think that small purchases like that would be more common with cash these days.

As to the effect on other US coins, I think other than the lack of a large dollar the other coins would not have changed much. Dimes, and to a larger extent, quarters would have a slightly reduced usage rate than today. The penny would still be less than useful and increasingly these days so would the nickel.