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Replies: 24 / Views: 3,102 |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1502 Posts |
Poll Question
Read up on a few very well written financial articles lately that attempted to predict trends in PM, PM ETFs, and mining company stocks. All are pretty favorable in the long term, but the debate becomes harder to side with for short term predictions.
If you have small chunk of change, $3000~$5000, Where would you put it for the next 3-6 months?
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Valued Member
United States
302 Posts |
I would put a small percentage, maybe 10 to 15 percent in PMs. Some of the rest I would put towards a forklift. The rest I would dump in junk transmissions at 50 cents on the dollar. Basically ALL of it would go to some sort of HARD ASSET - NONE would go in the bank.
Example. Today I went to two wrecking yards. Spent $450 in one and nothing in the other. Bought 11 junkers, one so trashed that it is debatable whether I can salvage ANY good part from it. Out of the rest, I should be able to sell 6 junkers tomorrow for somewhere between $650 and $800. The other 5 should gross me $150 in scrap plus anywhere from $50 to $450 in sellable parts. Worst case scenario is doubling of the money.
If I was not able to flip junkers like I do, I would be more inclined to put a much larger percentage in PMs. No matter what though, ALL of the money would go into hard assets of one kind or another. No way would I "invest" in paper, electronic, or other soft assets where I am at the mercy of someone else.
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Valued Member
United States
257 Posts |
I don;t think he;s going the scrap metal route all of a sudden. It's very specialized, especially what you're doing. =)
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Valued Member
United States
410 Posts |
What happens in 3-6 months? Is this money that you are speculating with, investing, or is this money that you need in 3-6 months?
If it is money you need I would put it in the bank or under your mattress. You won't make any money but you won't lose it either. You will have that money for what you need it for.
If it is money you want to invest, your timeframe is way off. For investing I would put that $5000 in a Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFINX). Very low expense ratios and the S&P 500 is trading at prices first seen in 1988.
If it is money you are speculating with, money that you can afford to lose 100%, I would go with a silver ETF. I personally think silver will go up in value and an ETF can be sold in minutes will very low fees. In comparison, physical silver is much harder to sell and I would expect you will pay a 5% over spot to buy and at least 5% under spot to sell.
Personally I have 17% land, 57% stocks, 11% bonds, 17% CD's, 1% physical silver, 1% cash in $20 bills.
The physical silver is just a hobby. I'm buying coins I like and if they go up in value I may sell them. If they go down I'll keep them. The 1% cash is for a true emergency / disaster. During a natural disaster cash beats a debit card every time.
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10038 Posts |
If this much were a "small chunk," then I would also spend a decent sized one! Anyway - probably get a nice 179? US silver dollar and/or 16D Merc Either this or just fill some holes in some albums by spreading the chicken feed around. 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote: Worst case scenario is doubling of the money. Good work if you can get it.  Quote: No way would I "invest" in paper, electronic, or other soft assets where I am at the mercy of someone else. In numerous ways, we are all "at the mercy of someone else".  Quote: It's very specialized, especially what you're doing. =) Indeed it is. Yes, there is some value in the scrap metal business but allow me to suggest that the real fortune there is the knowledge and experience gathered over many years of learning and doing. Quote: During a natural disaster cash beats a debit card every time. Indeed so. But how about in an unnatural disaster? That is, a disaster of the Man-made variety? We can see such a disaster looming on the horizon via the storm clouds over Europe and the USA. Should any disaster come from that direction, credit cards will be useless. Cash money might be as well but we won't know that until it hits. I can see keeping some emergency cash on hand. It might still be good. If so, then it would be very handy to have it in hand rather than in a bank account that may or may not be accessible. I usually keep about $1000 on hand for such emergencies but nowhere near your 1% level. Perhaps I should increase that? Hmmm... Quote: If this much were a "small chunk," then I would also spend a decent sized one! Yes, that IS a small chunk when one is investing. One of my investing companies is Vanguard and they require $3000 as a minimum buy-in amount for most of their funds. Other Vanguard funds have minimums of $10k, $25k, and even higher amounts. If you start buying physical gold or platinum, that's only about 1.5 to 1.8 ounces of metal. Quote: If you have small chunk of change, $3000~$5000, Where would you put it for the next 3-6 months? As one fellow once put it, "I spent 90% of my money on wine, women, and song. The rest I wasted on food, water, and rent".  On a more serious note... as an investor, a time frame of only 3-6 months is not really enough time to let most investments work. Most of the investing pundits out there suggest that a 5 year time frame be used for invested money and that anything that can't be invested for 5 years probably should not be invested at all. In that case, they suggest that such money be put into a money market account or a short-term bond fund. An intermediate term bond fund would be better paying but you would need to watch for rising interest rates and sell bond funds if rates start rising to avoid losing principal. One investment that I have been eying lately is the PPLT physical platinum ETF. Yes, I know about physical-in-your-hand PMs vs. paper PMs. In any case, the price of platinum is depressed right now. If you can hold this fund for 2-3 years, it has an excellent chance of making a 50-60% return on your money. That has been the historic gain on platinum for the past 100 or so years when its price dips below that of gold. This is not a guarantee but it is a historic trend. If the price of platinum dips below $1600 / oz. I will be buying. 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1064 Posts |
3-6 months is such a short timeframe, seems like the bank, or a short-term CD would be the best bet; they pay VERY little, but at least you wouldn't lose anything.
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Valued Member
United States
410 Posts |
Ed_B: We are 30 years apart in age and in very different stages of investing. 1% for me is a lot less than 1% for you!
poboxw: I think we need a little more information in order to give you a better answer. Specifically, what is your goal for this money.
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Valued Member
United States
297 Posts |
I voted for in the bank. I think a good moderate to long term investment would be PM's, but for a $5000 investment for 3-6 months why chance a major dip in stocks or gold? I would take take my meager interest rate and know will get at least $5000 back out.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
667 Posts |
With that time frame no place that carrys a high risk of speculation which includes gold & silver. Just way to risky if you are looking to have gains or at least the orginal amount.
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Pillar of the Community
 Canada
1502 Posts |
@mmerlinn: I wish I knew more about cars... could've saved myself hundreds and maybe made hundreds doing what you suggested. Just don't have the free time to dive into that world as of yet.
@JSH and Jack: I suppose half a year is an eye-blink in investment time then. I am pretty convinced that in the medium to long term (3-5 years +) the PMs will do alright, and was just curious what the strategy would be for the short term. There really is no deadline come a 6 months time, but this is not money I want to put away long term either (already have something set up). I figured I wanted to move this money around and see what I can make of it.
@Earle: I get excited when buying a $300 silver bar and seeing spot rise 20% in a week. But when you think about it, that's only $60 profit, less if I bough just above and sold just below spot. Have to be dealing with at least 3-4 zeros for the returns to amount to something significant.
And no, it's not really "small" in our penny-pinching books, but the chunk of change is unexpected money that came our way, so "disposable" in that we had already budgeted our spending comfortable without it. So, I thought i'd wet my hands with my first attempt at trading (invested before but never directly traded) instead of blowing it on what my wife call my toys (cameras, backpacking gear, archery equip...) or spending it on nice coins that i'll almost definitely end up being so attached to that I won't sell.
Wanted to see if there were compelling reasons not to go into ETFs and mining stocks.
Edited by poboxw 11/17/2011 05:33 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote: Ed_B: We are 30 years apart in age and in very different stages of investing. 1% for me is a lot less than 1% for you! Understood, JSH. Keep in mind, though, that, in terms of finances, I have been where you are now so do have a good grasp of your comments. I remember how hard my wife and I worked and how long we saved to get our first $10k. It seemed, at the time, to take forever. Once we got past that hurdle, our investing seemed to take off and fly... our money was making money! I suppose that this hurdle has moved with the times and is probably quite a bit higher now than it was back then but the same financial theory still applies... work, save, invest, repeat. 
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Valued Member
United States
410 Posts |
Quote: Wanted to see if there were compelling reasons not to go into ETFs and mining stocks. The compelling reason not to go into a PM ETF or mining stocks is that you say you can't lose the money. Investing in commodities, which PM's are commodities, is a very volatile world of investing. You can make lots of money or loose lots of money in a very short time. Commodities are not generally recommended for new investors. It really depends on where you are financially. Do you have the basics covered? Do you have 6 months of expenses set aside in an emergency fund? Do you have outstanding debts to pay off? Are you maxing out your 401K or IRA's to take advantage of the tax advantages? If you have the basics covered, then go ahead and try to time the commodities market with a silver ETF. If not then work on laying the foundation for your financial future. A well funded emergency fund takes a lot of stress out of life.
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Pillar of the Community
 Canada
1502 Posts |
@JSH: I've got all of the bases covered save for a mortgage. For that I've got 4 month's worth of payments banked and am renting rooms out in the house to pay for it. It's working well enough to generate a bit of monthly income when I'm lucky so not in a hurry to pay off the debt. Plus we plan to move within the next 3 years too. I suppose i'd wet me hands in the stocks market then. If my ebay listings increase dramatically in 3month's time, you'll all know how it went :P
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Valued Member
United States
410 Posts |
Let us know what you decide to purchase.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4008 Posts |
Quote: Do you have 6 months of expenses set aside in an emergency fund? Yes, this is one of the best bits of advice anyone can receive concerning their money and handling it. Everyone reading this would be well advised to pay close attention to creating their emergency fund stash. It is a critical component of any good financial plan. I also am interested in the final result of this thread. Please do post your decision when it is made. 
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Replies: 24 / Views: 3,102 |