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What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

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Pillar of the Community
MontanaCMR's Avatar
United States
606 Posts
 Posted 05/06/2016  6:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MontanaCMR to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Thanks, maybe I'll add up to 40% in PM since I like it better than stock market anyways.

These are numbers I have on some poured bars. Was hoping one had old meaning to you.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 05/06/2016  7:33 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@montanaCMR

well, in my case, I do not have ever much of my idle cash sitting in the market.

If I can find a trend that starts to work, a pattern that allows me to add, if I am buying, then I keep going. Then i'll look for another trend or sector that is strong.

Big concentrated positions of a trend and rolling that money over when you exit with a profit adn looking, waiting for the next trend lets the money grow and roll over fast. It also allows you to deal with draw downs and time periods where the market doesn't do nada at all.

Valued Member
United States
59 Posts
 Posted 05/06/2016  7:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Tips N Tails to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@yup

When you say trend you're referring to a pattern that you can "somewhat" predict. For ex. Silver 2011 was in the $40s spot range now it's down in the teens. Would that suffice as a down hill trend to you to get onboard?

I see earlier you referenced sugar. Do you generally find commodities that have these trends and research how the world economy is effecting these trends. For ex. Sugar cane growers experience droughts making the supply/demand trend upwards.
Valued Member
United States
154 Posts
 Posted 05/06/2016  9:58 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zack6736 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@yup
Got the book, have started reading. Thank you for recommending it.
Valued Member
ShinyRock's Avatar
United States
56 Posts
 Posted 05/07/2016  02:33 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add ShinyRock to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I just picked up the Livermore book, as well. Looks like some good in-flight reading material.
Valued Member
United States
154 Posts
 Posted 05/07/2016  02:39 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zack6736 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I'm enjoying it so far. Not far into it yet, but have already read the insights that yup has been speaking of.
Valued Member
United States
51 Posts
 Posted 05/07/2016  11:20 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mycoguy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Readding the Livermore book...have to admit, wish I had it 1.5 years ago, anyway, it is hopefully going to help me a lot. The fundamentals and items in italics will be written on large sheets of paper to hang above my trading screen. I am going to apply the basic rules to dabbling with BIO stocks. I know YUP worked them when that was where the action was, and did well. Seems the dust may have settled on the indusrty as a whole, and, some undervalued stocks beaten down could be a good long term buy. I have started a new BIO watchlist to develop my skils, and start keeping notes, as Livermore did.
As far as mouthing off, I'm done promoting anything. I have a tendency to get over-excited and boast about big winners, when the hidden human motivation is "Look at Me, I'm a winner", and, a hidden agenda of hoping more shares will sell, making the price go up. If the stock I have is a true winner, it needs no promotion. Lying by ommission and not telling you all the money I LOST funds on and just promoting my winners does no good at all, so, from here on out, I will practice these principles in all my affairs, as they say in my Bill W. "club".
As far as Bullion, bottom line, it's just a darn exciting time to be in, after years of decline. My accounts are down about 10-15% from last weeks highs, not worried and holding, and, virtually done tweaking my basket of miners, a mix of top tier, mid tier, Jrs., and explorers. The next leg up when it happens, will probably convince the sideline sitters to get in, and really make a strong higher base.
Valued Member
United States
154 Posts
 Posted 05/07/2016  5:59 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zack6736 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@mycoguy
While we are confessing, guess I'll confess as well. Concerning orders already placed, and orders placed once the price dropped to a certain point to buy via smart buy, I'd sit at the computer excited, just as though I was at a casino playing the slots. Only problem with the slots I'd usually loose. I've made nice profits so far, and look forward to making much more. Reading Livermores book has enlightened me to the fact I was approaching the market the wrong way.(much more to read but already picking up on some of my flaws.) I was seeking excitement, the thrill of watching the moment to moment change in the profit/lose box at the top of the screen. Totally wrong! When it'd go down I'd think, there's tomorrow and MAYBE it'll go back up, trying not to feel bad about the days lose, but my emotions would be flat. If it'd gone up, I'd be upbeat that night at work. I am now looking at it as a part time job, a business. Going to look at it that way from here on out. And the money I will be putting in from here on will be going to other stocks that I've studied up on and watched. Going to have to tweek my screener some to scan for 52 highs or near highs to watch. Must admit my whole portfolio is in miners, except for a very small amount in a vintner. But it's been doing very well.
Valued Member
United States
51 Posts
 Posted 05/07/2016  6:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mycoguy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Funny, if I ran into one of my brothers, the "conservative" type, I would NOT tell him where myour late Mom's money is(95% miners)..he would just think I was insane...my other brother is one of those "passive" Charles Schwab types, who gets real nervous talking about money, potential losses in equites, or, whatever "smart portfolio" they have his funds in, and, always says "They know what their doing"..I do tell him about my physical gold and silver, and, he says if I do well, I'll be able to support him in his old age! Sure, why not share the wealth!
I tried 1 of those portfolios...it sucked..like,up 0.18 for the day, while I could see and read about sectors going bannanas...so, I decided to take matters into my own hands with the miners..so, I'll either do well, or, if I'm lucky, quite well...or..go down swinging. I believe in investing with confidence, and no regrets. Regrets killed me in the past..."coulda-shoulda-woulda" plays no part..we have today, and, todays' numbers and trends and price action to study..THATS IT. I don't want to get "greedy"..I'll be fine to take whatever profits, and be happy....WHEN the tops are in, and when to sell will need a lot of reading...and, listening to YUP...but, that's later...not today.
Valued Member
United States
154 Posts
 Posted 05/08/2016  10:11 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zack6736 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@mycoguy
I can relate as to Charles Schwab and the idea they know what they are doing. My wifes work had been investing for her, but when the owner was selling the business and getting ready to retire, he turned the retirement accounts over to the employees and hers went into a Charles Schwab account, but it was in stocks. She was an "investor", figuring it was going to sit there and grow. Guess what, it lost 50% from energy companies going bankrupt by the time I looked at her summaries she was getting in the mail. So we called and spoke with a rep and got set up online to manage. Guess it's like a garden, needs to be tended to and cared for in order to grow. I have always believed in silver, and I thank God I found this site, this thread, and yup. The account is now growing. Going to leave it alone, but keep an eye on it as I finish Livermores book and study his advice, screen for stocks based on what I learn and watch to see what they do until I feel confident I can buy some other stock that will increase using money I've put in while the money in miners sits there until it's time to reposition in silver stock.
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United States
154 Posts
 Posted 05/08/2016  10:12 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zack6736 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
PS. Have become a speculator instead of an investor.
Valued Member
United States
154 Posts
 Posted 05/08/2016  1:44 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add zack6736 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Using what I've read so far, and yups advice based on same book, in the Demo mode of my account have purchased 60 shares each of AHS, NAVG, and PKI. Anxious to see if I've learned anything.
Valued Member
United States
51 Posts
 Posted 05/08/2016  4:32 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mycoguy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I have a questuin for YUP..Livermore suggests "taking profits when I've made 100%)...my first reaction was fear..fear of losing out on MORE profits. Let's say I put $1,000 into a miner. It's now at $2,000. I am curious IF it IS a good idea to draw out 10%, or 20% profits, and, let the rest of the shares carry the load until the end.?
I've just skimmed the book, and, read 4 chapters...it will take at least 3-5 complete re-readings, and, writing notes before I can memorize and retain the Livermore plan.
My other burning question is how in God's name(or, whatever people say these days!), does one know when an opportunity exists, and, knowing when to make that first entry. I do believe in contrarian investing.
Yes, I got into the miners too early last summer...all I saw was red for well-over 4 months, and, even into very early Jan-2016, had huge losses. It basically ALL changed in a VERY short time frame, with 1 day gold went up I believe $60+ dollars, forming a new base. The rest is history.
I know markets tend to repeat them selves(according to Livermore, ONLY due to Human Conditions).
This will take time..there is no "quick fix" here. Discipline will be of utmost need. Power to control emotions, and, stick with a pre-made entry-exit plan.
1.5 hours away from a new week in spot starting...it's going to be really interesting to see what the dollar does, and how the asst. metals react. Seems OTHER metals may be of interest, like Copper, Zinc, don't know about rare-earth metals, except they MAY be something to look into after a hard 1 year drop.
Brexit--China--Debt--War--Bitcoin--Politics---Negative Interest Rates--the list is endless as far as "risk aversion" needs.
My "bet" is more buyers than sellers this week.

Pillar of the Community
MontanaCMR's Avatar
United States
606 Posts
 Posted 05/08/2016  6:09 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add MontanaCMR to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
What book did you pick up mycoguy? I would like to get it and noticed a few different years.

I'm debating on adding more after a pullback or only if silver moves over $18.40. Haven't decided yet. I kinda like feeling like getting value with a price drop, but also see wisdom in waiting for price confirmation.
Valued Member
United States
51 Posts
 Posted 05/08/2016  6:25 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mycoguy to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Got the Livermore Book off Amazon..2001 version..original was 1940~
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