What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

@mycoguy
I may be mistaken, but my take from what I've read so far is to let it ride until you see confirmation the trend is over and it has turned down. I am not near the end, but my understanding is that it will have strong gains, and normal drops, then one day a strong gain, then the next day no gain or loss and this is a signal to sell. Very vague. The style of writing in the day takes a bit of getting used to in todays writing style. And with todays graphs and monitoring tools that makes it easier I would think. Livermore also said not to have too many positions open at once as it's too hard to monitor and I imagine back then with only pencil and paper it was. He also said to only trade 3 or 4 times a year. I can see some wisdom in that, but I'm not sure that is the rule for today. I would like to hear yups input on this. I'm sure he has positions all the time. But Livermore said not to fear when the stock is going up and get out too soon, as you will loose profits, wait for the market to confirm it is heading down, and yup has said the same thing. I would think a day of bigger than usual lose would be a signal it's turning into a downtrend. Livermore talks of a change in behavior of the stock, and I would think this is what he's talking about. Just compare the lose to the usual daily dips it's had.
@yup
Is this what Livermore was wanting the reader to take away, or am I way off?

I've learned a lot about PM with this thread. The reality in my opinion is the market as related to PM is part and parcel to physical metals.

Are we in an uptrend? Trying to catch a falling knife, should I buy, hold, or sell physical?

Based on this thread, it looks like 2016 is a lot more promising for physical metals than 2014. Yes, the discussion is focused on price action. However, price action seems to be a sound way to formatively evaluate your physical stack.

After reading this thread, I'm convinced interest in PM often includes both physical for fun, and paper to actually trade without storage, premiums, and figuring out how and where to sell.

Livermore's book is a great gem and he was one of the worlds greatest traders to walk this earth. He was one of the few that left a working set of plans and strategies for traders to use and willingly shared it with the public.


His two books are mandatory on trading desks all over the world, from Goldman Sachs, to trading desks in asia to local prop firms and small retail investor brokerage houses around the world.

While his personal and private life was far from flattering or admirable, he was one of the few that was NOT from the establishment and was willing to share his many years of experience and wisdom. His tactics are still in play every day of the week 80 years later. Unlike shills like Warren Buffet, who really tell you nothing but to always buy, he was brutally honest with his losses and mistakes.

Millions of traders such as myself are grateful for laying the ground work on how trade markets solely on price.

@tipsandtails

First of, I am not in the prediction business. No can predict. Trading is about dealing with probabilities and also accepting the unknowns, the uncertainty out there. All we do as traders is know our time frame and find that pattern and trend or direction that the market is going. We look to price as the sole truth of knowing when an asset is trying to turn in a direction or confirming a trend in full force.

Trends exist in all financial assets. doesn't matter if they are bonds, currencies, commodities, equities, CDOs, TED spreads, on on and on on,,, ALL financial assets have trends.

Honestly, I have no idea why sugar is up. Thats not my job. I only its in an uptrend because of price. I dont care about the world economy or reports. Means nothing to me. Does that mean I am being reckless?

The answer I dont care is that price ALWAYS moves ahead of the "why". Markets work in the future. By the time you know the "why" an asset has already started the move, whether up or down. So to me, reading about why sugar is going higher is a big waste of time.

@mycoguy

like Zack said, Livermore, no matter what, would let profits ride and only take them off the table until he had confirmation that the trend is/was either showing visible signs that it was dying, if he was buying or if he was selling short, that it was going to reverse. Once one gains the ability to read the tape, which takes many years of observation of various market conditions, you can spot, via price, when the market wants to turn, when a trend is changing, when its personality changes.

The price action is your confirmation. Usually this happens in the forms of yearly highs/yearly lows or when an asset hits and forms a range/base and then breaks that range. Sometimes, lets say an asset is starting to fall, goes into a big range and lets say for months it trades between 40 and 50. If you find that price keeps touching more of 40 than 50, guess what, chances, probabilities are super high it will be probed and breaks... and that stretched rubber scenario goes into play and once it breaks lower, it then continues to drive into yearly lows.

So it was this sort of tape reading Livermore engaged in and is done so by traders every single day.

@zack--

Livermore was saying to follow only a limited amount of positions, such as 3-4 of the best "names" or groups if one was buying. The reason behind is this to to keep things simple, to be able focus on whats happening with those positions. He would only follow those stocks that had the strongest uptrends, if he was buying.

That holds true today. I'll pick only a handful of very powerful trends in the market to either trade or build around if its buying or selling. I pick these positions based on market conditions.

Following Livermore's method applies 100% to gold and silver. Livermore would have been already been buying when silver and gold were forming those ranges and then broke them upwards. He would have done as is commonly done today, sending out a line to probe to test the market continues marching higher.

Thats why I was saying with silver, when it broke 16s, that was a place to buy. Look how from 16s it carried to yearly highs into the 18s.

I added 5kg of silver to my stash at the beginning of this latest upswing, Win loose or draw I now intend to sit on my hands for a while and just enjoy the ride

Mainly Australian Florins at spot.

I bought 20 Liberty Sunshine rounds when it was at it's peak price last week, that was before starting the book. But am not sorry, I will add to my stack which is my "insurance" against the fiat currency. Don't intend to sell any of it.

@yup
I know you have said in this thread that miners leads physical PM, so I have miners instead of PM stock. I was just wondering at what point, or how to tell when it's time to flip from miners to Silver? I realize we are along way away from the top for silver, just wondering. Haven't looked at the portfolio today. Checked the miners stock on my phone and can tell it's dipping so figured why look.
@mycoguy
Glad to hear your silvercrest is up; must be the takeover by majestic? My miners are taking a beating today, but they'll be back. I've read Mondays are down days on the average for PM anyway.

@zack

There really is no way to know that. What you could do is keep your miners and add some SLV tho as an example.

When we had our last uptrend years ago what I did was I was in GLD, ABX and NEM. I held that for very long time as the trend ran for many years.

There is really no need to stop buying the one over the over. At this point they will start to run in tandem.