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What Happens To Gold And Silver Next? Look Out Below?

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SA4H's Avatar
United States
2764 Posts
 Posted 04/12/2013  2:27 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add SA4H to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
PM usually trending lower from around end of March to around early September, so don't expect any significant re-bounce in this time frame.

However, the prices we see are dominate by paper PM trading (ETF and future contracts etc). Good luck finding/buying physical PM at the same low premium you've experience in the past. For the past few month, silver was about $2 lower but dealers at coin show still selling bullion (ASE/SML/etc) at around the same price as when silver was $30+ (premium was about $5 to $7). I don't expect premium to go lower. Even major online seller, we will see a higher premium on sought after bullion. Deals can still be found, just harder to come by.
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barryg's Avatar
United States
5853 Posts
 Posted 04/12/2013  2:36 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add barryg to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Even major online seller, we will see a higher premium on sought after bullion.


True, dat.

Goldmart usually has ASEs for sale at $2.99 over spot, while Silver Maples and Austrian Philharmonics are at $2.09 over spot. I just checked, and ASEs are now $3.29 over spot while the Philharmonics are at $2.29 over spot. Silver Maples were also at $2.29 earlier in the day, but right now they seem to be back at $2.09.

On the other hand, they still have my favorite 100 oz. Johnson Matthey Silver Bars (Pre-Owned) at $0.69 over spot, which is where they have been for months. Of course they used to be only $0.39 over spot back when silver was above $32...
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 04/12/2013  2:39 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
update- folks, please dont think today is a day to step in and buy gold and silver. This is another leg lower by institutional fund to liquidate long term positions. How can I be so sure of this? Simple, price and the volume,,, which is major and the tell tale sign.

Dont think that the selling is done. because it isn't. That in term means, that coins you want, you will find them at the price you want... and mark my words, the general public will be dumping their coins left and right.... as I stated months ago, the ebay and APMEX joint effort to sell coins, that was another sign that a top was put in place in regards to higher prices... and sadly many many folks bought at much higher levels.

Expect much lower prices going forward. .. and YES it is entirely possible that you can see a retracement up in the price but that does not mean its saying all clear.

Be very careful with how much you buy here.
Bedrock of the Community
basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 04/12/2013  2:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I don't expect premium to go lower. Even major online seller, we will see a higher premium on sought after bullion.


Only for a time since their inventory was bought at high levels. When the new shipments come in or the price shows its going to hold the premiums will level off.

People put up with raised premiums for a while with new overall lower prices but overtime the buying will start to dwindle and theyll adjust
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barryg's Avatar
United States
5853 Posts
 Posted 04/12/2013  3:07 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add barryg to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Well, it looks as though gold may have bottomed out today at $1500, so it may be time to get a little more. I would tend to agree that now may not be the best time to go all in with major purchases (although it certainly could be since nobody can predict the future), but that's exactly why I buy a little at a time as the price drops instead of buying monster boxes of silver or 10 ounce gold bars.

Everybody's situation is different, of course, but I find that it's easier for me to justify buying a little at a time, regardless of the price, rather than buying a large amount all at once when the price bottoms out. And part of that is that there's no way to tell when the price has "really" bottomed out. I learned this lesson the hard way last year when I bought a monster box of silver after prices dropped from $35 to $32, only to watch prices plummet to $26 a couple of days later.

So, yeah -- I definitely won't be going "all in" any time soon (or ever, for that matter). But in the mean time, I do believe it's time to get me a little more shiny stuff...
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 04/12/2013  3:11 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
just one final comment-

I just LOVE how these markets work. They don't care about your opinion. They don't care if you feel prices should be higher. They don't care if you believe prices are being held down. They also show you exactly why you must pay attention to 1- PRICE and 2. VOLUME.

These markets work perfectly! :D

be careful out there!
Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts
 Posted 04/12/2013  4:04 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add angel2004 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I remember last spring waiting and waiting for a $26 price to buy and I never did! So if you want silver and can find it available, you may want to buy. Yes, it may go lower, but it may not.
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Demarco Bishopp's Avatar
United Kingdom
548 Posts
 Posted 04/12/2013  4:15 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Demarco Bishopp to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
This morning it was £1000 per ounce. Now it's £970. That's a big drop.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 04/12/2013  4:31 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
In this same thread, a few days ago,, I stated that a swift and fast move would happen, especially a range break, and we got some of it today, in fact I am a bit surprised at how soon it happened.

In any case, anyone who wants physical gold or silver should step aside lest and let more selling pressure come in lest they want to enjoy the anguish and angst that comes with being underwater of a recent purchase.

Note I am not saying not to buy gold or silver, rather patience should be used here as it will get you a much better price and cushion.
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Demarco Bishopp's Avatar
United Kingdom
548 Posts
 Posted 04/12/2013  4:35 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Demarco Bishopp to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Newspapers seem to think that this wobble could trigger countries like Spain and Italy to sell off some of their reserves. If Cyprus can cause a drop like we saw today, Spain and Italy will cause a 50% collapse.
Bedrock of the Community
basebal21's Avatar
13014 Posts
 Posted 04/12/2013  5:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add basebal21 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Newspapers seem to think that this wobble could trigger countries like Spain and Italy to sell off some of their reserves


I wouldnt be surprised if its going down its only costing them money to hang onto it.
Pillar of the Community
United States
3789 Posts
 Posted 04/12/2013  7:40 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add yup7676 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
thing is, this selling is not CB selling or country selling. Rather this liquidation from financial market participants.

This selling can continue for a while, today was no joke, the volume was something else. Why do I emphasis volume?
This is how we measure participants selling. Also, on the way up this area will be a major point of resistance price wise and I am talking technically. So for those of you at home that keep track, keep this date circled on your calenders. It will come into play sometime in the future.

Finally, don't be surprised by some sort of bounce. But that's all it will be. Don't be fooled into thinking you missed the move down.
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Silverhawk74's Avatar
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 04/12/2013  7:48 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
One thing remains true in all forms investing. The most patient win in the end who never get scared and sell. Perhaps this is not true 100% (some die first just is what it is) of the time but I bet the ratio must be up around 9 out of 10....
Valued Member
United States
200 Posts
 Posted 04/13/2013  12:24 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add lincsus to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Gold and Silver are on a downward spiral. Looking at things, I expect them to go down some more and then stay at the lower levels for some time. It is time to wait for those who already have PMs with them. Not a good time to buy, too much uncertainty. Rather wait for some time to let the bear trend take its course.
Pillar of the Community
United States
2168 Posts
 Posted 04/13/2013  12:54 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add angel2004 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
With premiums going as high as 15percent over spot I will wait til the dust settles
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