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Mintages For 2016 "Regular" Coins

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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2845 Posts
 Posted 12/07/2016  9:53 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wildflowerAB to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Including the 10 million 2016 commemorative loonies, anything less than 10 million minted of the regular version is a significant decrease from recent years.

2010 - 24,460,000
2011 - 25,410,000
2012 - 119,519,000
2013 - 120,330,000
2014 - 24,978,000
2015 - 22,140,000
http://www.mint.ca/store/mint/learn....WEjJtLRfOhA

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redlock's Avatar
Germany
992 Posts
 Posted 12/08/2016  04:50 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add redlock to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I was told a pallet of loonies is somewhere between $100-$150K (loonies not boxes) and I will get that number confirmed later on.


If there are really just 150.000 regular ''2016'' Loonies that would be an extremely low number. Considering what has been minted (and needed for actual circulation) in the past couple of years I would be stunned if this turns out to be the mintage.
But I guess, anything is possible these days.
Edited by redlock
12/08/2016 04:53 am
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Canada
2845 Posts
 Posted 12/08/2016  09:02 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wildflowerAB to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:


If there are really just 150.000 regular ''2016'' Loonies that would be an extremely low number. Considering what has been minted (and needed for actual circulation) in the past couple of years I would be stunned if this turns out to be the mintage.



I would be too. To mint only 150,000 would probably not be worth the bother of setting up the production equipment.

And if the demand for circulated coin has so sharply dropped off, reduced mintage requirements should be obvious in other denominations as well.

Otherwise what would cause only a lack of need for loonies?

In fact it would be even more evident in 2016 toonies because a substantially larger amount were minted in 2015.

2010 - 8,220,000
2011 - 27,488,000
2012 - 89,185,000
2013 - 12,390,000
2014 - 16,305,000
2015 - 30,378,500
http://www.mint.ca/store/mint/learn....WEllP7RfOhA

In my opinion there's plenty of 2016 regular loonies sitting around in coin stock rooms. It's highly unlikely 2017 coinage will enter into circulation on Jan 1st.
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Canada
5324 Posts
 Posted 12/08/2016  09:28 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add john100 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
There are I believe a few years where no loonies or toonies for sure was produced for circulation, a few weeks ago when I asked the bulk order dept. about the 2016 loonie the best was there was lots and they are only minted to demand from the three bank districts. Now the magic question what is lots, if the person with the RCM connection knows the inventory personal we would have the answer or if you are in Winnipeg, try ordering 200,000 loonies at the boutique and see how many they can get you? In the GTA area have not seen a wild 2016 loonie in change.
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Canada
2845 Posts
 Posted 12/08/2016  09:51 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wildflowerAB to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:

.....if you are in Winnipeg, try ordering 200,000 loonies at the boutique and see how many they can get you?



Unless something has changed, RCM's boutique stores are not a supplier of circulation coin in Canada....?

My understanding is the Bank of Canada is the sole entity that determines the volume of circulation coin that's minted each year --- RCM is only the supplier/order taker/manufacturer.

That's different from non-circulation (NCLT) coin, whereby RCM indeed determines mintage and boutique stores are one of the primary distribution channels.

But are you saying that in Winnipeg that businesses get their coin orders filled through RCM's boutique store? I've never had the opportunity to visit one.
Edited by wildflowerAB
12/08/2016 10:08 am
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unruhjonny's Avatar
Canada
514 Posts
 Posted 12/08/2016  12:05 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add unruhjonny to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Allan:
If they are so low mintage why are they being sold by 20 or so sellers for 2$ Each and 30$ a roll. I Don't get it, might be a competition to see who can make the least money. If they were low mintage peoples shouldk be buying with both hands!

Until the mint releases the mintages, the numbers are actualy unknown - the fact hat people here are observing that they are absent from circulation, being released really late in the year, AND one of us has a contact in the mint, means that this info is coming out BEFORE the mint releases it...


Quote:
wildflowerAB:
... To mint only 150,000 would probably not be worth the bother of setting up the production equipment.

And if the demand for circulated coin has so sharply dropped off, reduced mintage requirements should be obvious in other denominations as well.


You may be correct, but here's my take;
The dies are already made, and used to make the uncirculated sets - so it's not like there is any extra cost to manufacture - if the RCM has been requested ot (lets say) mint 10.2million dollar coins, and from that 10.2 10 are commemorative, then logically the mint would make another 200,000 using the dies already made for the "regular" loon which was already made up for the uncirculated sets;
Now, the mint shows that 60,000 "regular" uncirculated sets were minted for this year, so you could think that from the remaining alotment of 200,000 loons to be minted, we could minus 60,000 - which would put circulation coins in at about 140,000.

Maybe that was long winded, but I am trying to illustrate how a low mintage like this could be done, and how it doesn't actually cost the mint any more to make them, since the dies have already been made.

I guess time will tell.
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unruhjonny's Avatar
Canada
514 Posts
 Posted 12/08/2016  12:07 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add unruhjonny to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I do not believe that the boutique has anything to do with ordering circulation coins for businesses...

I have been there enough times that several members of my family grown ath the mere thought of going to the mint.
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Canada
2845 Posts
 Posted 12/08/2016  12:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wildflowerAB to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:


Now, the mint shows that 60,000 "regular" uncirculated sets were minted for this year, so you could think that from the remaining alotment of 200,000 loons to be minted, we could minus 60,000 - which would put circulation coins in at about 140,000.



Did you know?

Winnipeg's high-speed circulation presses can produce 20 million coins each day. That's 750 coins per second!


http://www.mint.ca/store/mint/about....WEmWTLRfOhA

Yes, it's fun to speculation only time will have the answer.

Another reason I think there's no shortage of 2016 loonies and I doubt that RCM would be requisitioned to mint so few new coins in any single denomination --- unless something has drastically changed --- a substantial amount of coin is held in reserves by financial institutions and Brinks, perhaps even RCM. It's minted upon future forecast, not urgent need. I just can't see an order placed for such a small amount. It would be more likely for reserves to be depleted by 100,000 or 200,000 than mint so few loonies.

Saying that, even a mintage of 2 million 2016 loonies would be consider low mintage compared to past years.
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unruhjonny's Avatar
Canada
514 Posts
 Posted 12/08/2016  2:30 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add unruhjonny to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
well I have two great examples of coins that were made from specific die sets from which less than a half million coins were minted:
1991 Quarter
2006-P penny

In both instances, the info didn't get out till after the reports were released the following calendar year;
With the quarter, I had a handful that I got from the cashier at the winnipeg 'botique', and only kept one (whoops!)
With the penny, I guess I hit up the mint too early to get the 'P' penny - only a roll of the zinc non-RCM logo penny.
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unruhjonny's Avatar
Canada
514 Posts
 Posted 12/08/2016  2:51 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add unruhjonny to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
also all of the following are loons with mitages below the std "low" mintage point supposed by the LL(ect) of late
* 2002 loons were 2.3mil
* 2003 loons had a total production of 5.1 mil divided between three distinct die sets
* 2004 loons were 3.4mil
* 2010(reg) loons were 4.1mil
* 2010(sk) loons were 3.1mil
* 2012-old composition loons were 2.4mil

if this speculated low mintage comes to be true, that would be great!

The mint has made it obvious that hey are interested in making money, but they will only get so many people buying their non-circulation coins;
and although the 1991 & 1992 quarters did great for getting people to look through their change to hoard them, I believe that in general people are getting tired of multiple distinct coins in a single denomination( eg: quarters) being released each year...
The mint really needs to do some things to get more people hoarding the regular circulation coins - and thereby driving up demand for "replacement" coins...

If the mint does disclose that this is a low mintage production, this (to me) seems to be a third event this year done which might get people looking more into collection 'base' coinage;
1) 2016 sets being released as "error" sets with 2015 loons (lets face it, most collectors who got an error set, would have bought at least one more 'regular' set)
2) 2017 toonie being found in early 2016 (not sure of the impact, but interesting none the less)
3) 2016 regular loonie being intentionally released in low numbers (they will pretty much immediately disappear from circulation, and need to be replaced)

I personally prefer the base circulation coinage, and like small variations (eg: P, vs no_p, vs RCM logo 2006 pennies & old composition vs new composition for both 2012 loonies and toonies).
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2845 Posts
 Posted 12/08/2016  7:31 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add wildflowerAB to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
I have a theory that, if true, can never be proven.

It goes like this... when the Bank of Canada releases mintage numbers for 2016, I'll be around the typical 20 million. But there's a CLUE in those 2016 Uncirculated Sets with 2015 Loonies. It's that RCM made a mistake in the first go around of loonie production and minted millions of loonies with 2015 on them, instead of 2016. When an alert mint employee caught the error, the correct year was simply updated and 2016s were added into the loonie bin. Who cares? Nobody because banks and businesses do not buy coin by specific year, only by volume. A loonie is worth a dollar regardless of the year that appears on it.

Thus there are more 2015 loonies and less 2016 than the mintage numbers will ever indicate.......
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5324 Posts
 Posted 12/08/2016  7:42 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add john100 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
When anyone or dealers order circulating coins through the bulk department, you pay a one time fee plus shipping, as does the banks when they are running low or they keep recycling the coins therefore no demand, shipping is really expensive coins are heavy. At the boutiques they also charge a premium in selling rolls of circulating coins, also read somewhere a couple years ago that the Minister of Finance changed the rules where the RCM can't profit on minting circulating coins, so the RCM is busy creating foreign slugs and coins. So it could be plausible that there is no demand for the 2016 regular loonie and only a small amount was run but the reverse could be true too.
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unruhjonny's Avatar
Canada
514 Posts
 Posted 12/09/2016  12:03 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add unruhjonny to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@ Wildflower:
That is an interesting theory, but it is inherently flawed;
All sets are minted and assembled at the Ottawa mint*, where as the circulating coinage is minted at the Winnipeg mint.

* = the sole exception were a couple years in which uncirculated "W" sets were made, or the test "P" set which were minted at the Winnipeg mint;
Also, I have understood that on occasion the RCM does outsource packaging of sets, but that info is tightly kept.

My understanding is:
1)the dies are all made at the Ottawa mint
2) once they are done with the dies at the Ottawa mint for sets (generally in the case of circulation coin dies used for the uncirculated sets), the dies are individually shipped to the Winnipeg mint for circulation coin production.

Yes, I have taken the mint tour a couple times...

Exactly how 2015 loons were "mistakenly" placed into 2016 sets is beyond me;
The only logical reason to me is that the 2015 sets were made immediately before the 2016 sets - which is quite possible...
This is the only way that I could see the wrong "year" coin being placed in the wrong set...

I mean if the 2017 toonie out there is legit (& it probably is), it is proof positive that coins are at least sometimes made well before the calendar year...
Edited by unruhjonny
12/09/2016 12:17 pm
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unruhjonny's Avatar
Canada
514 Posts
 Posted 12/09/2016  12:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add unruhjonny to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
@ Wildflower:


Quote:
Did you know?

Winnipeg's high-speed circulation presses can produce 20 million coins each day. That's 750 coins per second!

Keep in mind that this probably accounts for all stamping machines running all day without interruption.

Not once have I ever seen all the stamping machines working at the same time - on occasion I have seen only a couple of them running.
(The production floor is visible from the viewing level on the Winnipeg mint tour.)


I do not know how many coins per hour are made, but if you make a safe assumption of 1 per 1/2 second, to do a full mintage of 150,000

150k coins / 2 = 75,000 (@ 2 coins per second, 75,000 seconds total)
75,000 / 60 = 1250 minutes
1,250 / 60 = 20.8333 hours
150,000 coins minted on one machine in one day.

If you are ever able to do the "tour"*, you will see what I mean - the machines are plainly visable, and you can see when a given coin is being minted, the hoppers in which the minted coins are collected, and even the pallets of rolled/boxed coins...

* = the tour was much better prior to 1999, as it did the whole loop around the mint, now more than half of the observation deck has been blocked off - apparently to keep secret how the mint does it's plating process.

If the assertion of only one pallet of coins is legit, we have a modern scarcity, and have been given the unusual opportunity to lean of the scarcity before they are sold out everywhere.

I am debating on buying a roll or two this weekend - assuming I can find them at the arguably reasonable price of $36.
Edited by unruhjonny
12/09/2016 12:20 pm
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Scissel's Avatar
Canada
693 Posts
 Posted 12/09/2016  1:01 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Scissel to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
When I did a floor tour ~10 years ago, there was one high-speed press running a production of cents. It was impressively fast - like buzzing. The other presses were MUCH slower. I believe the high speed press(es) are primarily used for small coins, e.g., 10c, foreign coins, etc.
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