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Replies: 26 / Views: 6,249 |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
17884 Posts |
First you are not considering survival rates. Since the early 60's the survival rate of proof coins (with the possible exception of the silver proofs of 60 to 64) is probably around 90%. So most of the proofs made are still around. The survival rate of business strikes in MS probably tops out at 5% or less for a common year. Business strikes were meant to circulate and did. Second it is important to consider how many collectors are there? The Mint says 150 million but that is absurd. They were counting everyone who put away a few State Quarters as being a collector. Well I can believe one out of every two people has a few State Quarters put away, but I wouldn't say one out of every two people collect coins. I think a much closer figure would be 2 million, and that would be at all levels from the guy with just a casual interest aoo they way to the collctor level putting together something like the Pogue collection. If you accept that 2 million estimate, then guess what, proof coin mintages really aren't that low. Especially when you consider that for any given proof issue, with a 90% survival rate, not all of those 2 million are wanting it. This basically means that there are more of these proof coins floating around than there are collectors wanting them. (And many of those that do are perfectly happy with a raw one, which reduces demand for the slabbed ones even more) Well what happens when supply exceeds demand? Prices scrape bottom. But for the MS coins since the survival rate is so much lower,and the quality of the MS coins that survive is usually not that great, supply many not exceed demand. So in that case the value of the MS coins can easily exceed that of the proofs.
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
7941 Posts |
Two super, thoughtful posts by earle and conder on this topic. 
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
20753 Posts |
Only collectors want them. And just not enough collectors of Proof coins. Usually only good for completing an Album.
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Valued Member
 United States
212 Posts |
Earle and Conder, thank you so much for your very thoughtful answers, they make total sense. It's not every day you get a fully satisfying explanation for something, and so I'm really glad I finally got around to asking this!
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Valued Member
United States
392 Posts |
Very interesting topic. I reread carefully to understand, thanks for all the info.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1081 Posts |
They have no soul! Even the mint state coins seem sterile to me. No one's used them for anything, they haven't survived. The AUs hold the most interest to me: they generally look nice but that little bit of wear means that they've been in a few pockets and bought a few things. They've been part of the world.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5241 Posts |
This is a very interesting question as it touches on the psychological aspects of collecting-why do collectors like something and not like something else. Econ 101, where price is a function of supply vs. demand, cannot explain the demand, because coins are not a necessity. You can calculate the supply but the demand is pure human psychology, quite resistant to rational explanation. Aesthetics and beauty are not rational-but so what?
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1081 Posts |
Well, scarcity plays a part in all this - the proofs are not generally all that scarce.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1081 Posts |
But yes, old coins - the whole thing is a little irrational....
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
5241 Posts |
Yes, @Silver81, I did not want to say this out loud, but coin collecting itself is not particularly rational, assuming that I or anyone care. We can't be stopped. Logic does not apply. Mr. Spock and the other Vulcans could not become coin collectors.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1962 Posts |
A lot of collectors see modern proofs as what they are - modern contrived schlock made to look and perpetually remain (as Conder101 rightly noted) boringly perfect. It's one step off what baseball cards turned into... there's ZERO character. I hear people like those proofs they did backwards by accident, though. Quote: Regular issue coins is what it was all about. So were a lot of collectors turning down those cheap and readily available Barber and Walker proofs back then?
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Replies: 26 / Views: 6,249 |