PCGS Grading Challenge Video. Did It Fool You?

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Earle42 Bedrock of the Community United States 10029 Posts	Posted 10/16/2024 9:10 pm A video online entitled "CoinWeek: We take the PCGS Grading Challenge" can be found online. I see the entire idea by PCGS as nothing more than a marketing gimmick. Why? https://rumble.com/v5iyqdp-video-re...urposes.html The video is set at the 2016 World's Fair of Money. Mr Charles Morgan, a CoinWeek editor, takes the "challenge" to determine (or so he thinks) how good he is at grading coins. Mr. Ron Guth, a former PCGS president, is administering the test which consists of having Mr. Morgan guess the "right" grade on 10 slabbed coins. After Mr. Morgan is done giving his answers, he scores 5/20 right with 7 close answers. Mr. Guth goes through Mr. Morgan's answers one by one while examining the slabs and telling which guesses were "right" or "wrong." It's an entertaining video and all looks good. Right? Now how about bursting the marketing bubble? When there are no standardized measuring tools used to determine what a "right" answer is, how is it possible to ask someone to guess the right answer? it is impossible to be accurate. Any PCGS graded coin can be cracked out, re-submittted to PCGS, and it will never be guaranteed the same grade it had. This is b/c grading coins is subjective and not based on any verifiable & legitimate standard. In fact the companies openly say grading is an art and not a science on their websites. Yet in the video PCGS uses the terms "right" and "wrong" all the time. Mr. Guth finds tiny details on the coins and uses those details to explain why the slab has the "right" grade and Mr. Morgan was incorrect! As PCGS would hope, Mr. Morgan, and likely most people seeing the video, bought those ideas and this perspective hook line and sinker. Let's approach this from another angle. Mr. Morgan got a 25% on his test this time. Let's say Mr. Morgan said he wanted to make sure the "answer key" was right and so cracks all the coins out and resubmits them. Just like what happens all the time, some of the resubmissions come back with a different grade. When Mr. Guth checks this time, it is found Mr. Morgan's former answers now show 10 "right" guesses, and yet Mr. Morgan didn;t change any of his answers! BTW, since Mr. Morgan did get 7 "close" answers in the video, that scenario the changed slabs matching 10 of his answers would not necessarily be improbable. I get a real chuckle when Mr. Guth says most people taking the test get about the same score Mr. Morgan did (yeah...no kidding!). And even if Mr. Morgan had gotten 100%, then this also could change if the coins were resubmitted and re-graded! ************* Mr. Guth also makes a statement in the video that the best graders only get it "right" about 80% of the time. What does that statement legitimately mean when applying some common sense? Since there is nothing in place to know the exact right grade of a coin, then how can anyone be called correct 80% of the time? Again it is like taking a test but the correct answer to the problem is an unknown! When the one correct answer to anything is an unknown, there is no way to tell if a person is right or wrong to any degree at guessing the answer! ONLY if a coin could be proven to have, let's say, an MS67 grade by specific quantitative means could it be known if a person was guessing the right grade at all...let alone 80% of the time! ******** OK granted. The companies use two graders to increase the chance of getting a "right" (whatever that means) grade for each coin. This is something Mr. Guth eludes to in the video. Yet, and once again for emphasis, the profitable re-slabbing game (to get a higher grade) proves that even using two graders (and sometimes more) means at present there is no one RIGHT grade to be had with the present system. The entire premise of the video checking how well a person can guess the right grades is flawed. I again suggest this so called grading challenge is given as a marketing ploy to get people to forget the basis these companies rely is totally at the whim of what the companies want to put on the slab. People WANT to have verifiability and accuracy in grading coins, and this part of human nature adds to the successful system which might be said to hint at profiteering. Oh the things marketers can pull on the public. BTW - just to make sure...there is nothing dumb etc. about a coin collector who enjoys slabbed coins. Hobby's are about fun. And there are many collectors who understand what these companies do, how they work etc., who can wisely use the companies and enjoy their hobby. And to someone who does not need/want to care about losing money over their hobby, then all the more power to them. But the system can take advantage of a lot of people who don't take the time to think things through. I just write up things like this so people who come into the hobby and never take the time to question the validity of the grading businesses will not lose a lot of money (as so many do) by making baseless assumptions about these businesses. Way too much money has been lost by coin hobbyists due to a misunderstanding of the expertise levels and verifiability of the grading companies. How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash? Download and read: Grading the graders Costly TPG ineptitude and No FG Kennedy halves https://ln5.sync.com/dl/7ca91bdd0/w...i3b-rbj9fir2 Report this Post to the Staff

manosgerms Valued Member United States 136 Posts	Posted 10/16/2024 11:22 pm I think the grades are basically a guide In the same way that one should treat coins graded by a very poor agency with a lot of salt, those graded by PCGS or NGC still should have a little salt associated with them. I think they DO generally get the grade roughly right, but something like a tone spot for example you don't know if it happened in the holder or before so that MS66 quarter could have been exactly that when it was inserted. Overall, never bet the bank on a slabbed grade. Do your work and figure out what the weaknesses and the strengths of the coin are (they all have them except for manifest MS 69 or 70 moderns) and figure out what you can accept. For me there are certain coins that I can see are legit MS65 but I would only pay MS63 money for them just because of my personal view of the look. I personally do not understand at all why very flashily toned coins command a premium. I happily look to sell anything that can get that premium to switch to the same grade but blast white + some cash. There are others who would really value to toned grades. Report this Post to the Staff
NumismaticsFTW Pillar of the Community United States 2280 Posts	Posted 10/16/2024 11:45 pm I've seen this post somewhere on this forum before. You realize when you know how to think, it empowers you far beyond those who know only what to think. -Neil deGrasse Tyson Report this Post to the Staff
Coinfrog Bedrock of the Community United States 94367 Posts	Posted 10/17/2024 08:15 am Interesting, thanks for that. Report this Post to the Staff
Earle42 Bedrock of the Community United States 10029 Posts	Posted 10/17/2024 08:44 am Quote: I've seen this post somewhere on this forum before. Sorry for a re-post if this is the case. I used search to see if I had posted before and did not find it using the different wording I tried (several times). Quote: I think the grades are basically a guide I can agree with this b/c people who see a lot of coins will naturally have a fuzzy idea surrounding each grade level. But the problem is when marketing uses something like this to make people think contrary to a company's own stated words that grading is not a science. The company marketers are well aware it is human nature to desire an "expert" opinion, and so the marketers play on that desire just as in this video. There will be no "right" grade, until verifiable standards are applied. That could mean using machines to do techincal grading. which cold be totally analytically based on percentage of wear/damage etc. Or it could mean finding a way (modern AI apps are a farce from our Chinese friends making misleading apps) to have all slabbed coins at each level "averaged" to find what the "perfect human" would always assign that grade to. Either way it could be made verifiable and always give one grade that could actually be called the ONE RIGHT grade. But again, this kills profits greatly and is the probably reason the companies started with computer grading in the 90s and quickly abandoned it. Killing profits is not what shareholders desire. So while the rest of the world computerized, the grading companies used the excuse they abandoned the system b/c (which was true back then) people were skeptical about the new computer revolution. So while the rest of the world computerized everything, the grading companies still refuse to do so although what we carry in our pockets makes the coputers that could grade in the 90s look like an abacus. That is my beef with the grading companies. They need to learn to adapt like all other businesses do when their product becomes obsolete instead of clinging to what I see as a profiteering model that takes advantage of people (especially newbies). They also realize since we are talking about a hobby, most people will not want to take the time to be analytical and see the reality in something like this marketing ploy called a "challenge." Adaptation? Sure. Zebco fishing tackle company was the ZEro hour Bomb COmpany! BTW, I DO appreciate all of the very useful info these companies provide online for collectors. And not meaning to diminish its value, remember this info is all put there for marketing purposes as well b/c posting more knowledge bolsters the idea their grading is also done with this much expertise. There is nothing wrong with trying to promote a business as long as what is used is factual and legitimate. How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash? Download and read: Grading the graders Costly TPG ineptitude and No FG Kennedy halves https://ln5.sync.com/dl/7ca91bdd0/w...i3b-rbj9fir2 Report this Post to the Staff
manosgerms Valued Member United States 136 Posts	Posted 10/17/2024 12:56 pm But the whole machine thing is a problem. Again, unless you are talking about MS69 and MS70 coins which can be properly analyzed by both humans and machines, the machine itself will be SUBJECTIVE. I have spent 30 years working in AI and AI will simply NOT get an objective grade for coins. Why? Because all sorts of things are subject to opinion. Just look at the Morgan dollar that the graders gave a much lower grade than the candidate because they saw fingerprint toning as much more problematic. No machine will be able to objectively assess that stuff - it will need programming. In the same way, people who claim they will use an "objective score" for dings etc...who is to say if a ding is bad or not bad? Sure most people agree that a ding on the cheek of a Morgan is bad, but not ALL do and even then how bad are those dings vs others? AI will at least be consistent (probably - even that is not guaranteed) but consistent vs a programing solution / definition of what the grade should be. So there is not going to be a panacea although AI might at least speed up grading for submitters Report this Post to the Staff
Earle42 Bedrock of the Community United States 10029 Posts	Posted 10/17/2024 9:28 pm I agree there will have to be accepted standards in all of this. Just like when mankind decided to come up with a standard and unchangeable means of telling how long a 1 foot ruler would always be. BUt with the amount of faith that is taken already by so many who believe, for example, the premise of the video being a challenge to see how well a person can grade coins, I also don't see a problem with standards being agreed upon/accepted for programming. Of course scanning and taking actual measurements of wear and damage could be done (did this in the 90s in a plastics plant, down to the fractions of a micrometer, on a [then] very expensive and high tech computer/scanner in a QR dept. in a plastics plant). Then an actual overall percentage (from a hypothetical perfect condition) perfect score) could be used. And I also think the current iPhone is more than capable accessing its facial recognition tech using infra red to take 30,000 data points instantaneously to "recognize' its owner (depite hats, makeup, beards, and angle it scans from etc.). But even if I am mistaken about the iPhone, there was already a consistent website using AI for grading Morgans that was in testing stage. I did some testing myself and it was consistent! It used an "average" of slabbed coins at each grade level. And the more it was given at a certain grade level, the more it was designed to "average" and become better. It was backed by a dealer named Daniel Malone, but his programmer, after the beta test was working, shut it down and left saying nothing to Daniel. No idea why. PCGS, in the 90s, already had a computer grading system they said was consistent. They also said it was was much more more , giving a true grade, since they had eliminated the "human error" aspect. Yet the system was abandoned quickly. They claimed it was b/c people did not trust computers (true back then), and so while the rest of the world did computerized the TPGs didn't. Huge profits from people paying to have the same coin graded more than once (hoping for a better grade) also would be killed by the better grading system, but shareholders don't care about such things, do they? How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash? Download and read: Grading the graders Costly TPG ineptitude and No FG Kennedy halves https://ln5.sync.com/dl/7ca91bdd0/w...i3b-rbj9fir2 Report this Post to the Staff
TinyRetreat Valued Member United States 345 Posts	Posted 12/04/2024 11:58 pm I often wonder ... oh to be a fly on the wall ... to see the "real people" at the TPG job. Could it be like the car business ... hope it's Wednesday when my coins are graded !? :) Report this Post to the Staff
jbuck Moderator United States 187446 Posts	Posted 12/05/2024 09:54 am Quote: Could it be like the car business ... hope it's Wednesday when my coins are graded !? :) Coin Collector Since 1978 Avatar Old Avatar 7070 Eisenhower Australia Canada World CCF Members on eBay CCF eBay Search Engine Report this Post to the Staff
Earle42 Bedrock of the Community United States 10029 Posts	Posted 12/05/2024 7:57 pm The other legitimate thing to remember that has to influence some of the inconsistencies at the companies also is that any person sitting in a cubicle for 8 hours a day will, at the end of the day, not be as mentally sharp as they will after downing the morning java at the same cubicle. This is why I like to say the ink on the label also depends on how good the coffee in the office is. Just another problem with human grading (as the companies said when promoting their tech based system they soon abandoned) which is subject to human error. I also personally think the main reason people do not like these kind of facts surfacing is a lot of people have invested a lot of money into slabs. It is a very hard thing for any of us, when we have put out a lot of $$, to want to hear anything that might suggest a problem in what we have put our hard earned cash into. I also think this is the concept behind why NGC and PCGS coerce a membership fee. It psychologically creates faith in their product (even from newbies) and means people are much more prone not to question what they pay for. BTW...just as an addition. The PCGS guarantee (further on down the page)says it can only be invoked if the grade is off by two points (and higher than it should be...yeah...I want my coin devalued!). Just how exactly does a person prove those two points since there are no legitimate standards or way to measure the grade? Good M-A-R-K-E-T-I-N-G! How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash? Download and read: Grading the graders Costly TPG ineptitude and No FG Kennedy halves https://ln5.sync.com/dl/7ca91bdd0/w...i3b-rbj9fir2 Report this Post to the Staff
nealeffendi Pillar of the Community Australia 852 Posts	Posted 01/08/2025 09:04 am @Earle42. About that PCGS guarantee; I see a few problems with it only being invoked if off by 2 points. Firstly even a half point grade difference can be a difference in value of 20X for certain coins and secondly how do they determine the value of any grade if few or no coins of that grade ever come to market? Sure there are thousands of Morgans in every grade so it wouldn't be difficult to see what the market value is; but for international coins there are many that only have a few hundred in all grades and in high grades there are only a few to a few dozen. To give an example the Australian1960 and 1962 florins are both common florins to be slabbed (746 and 373) with 59 and 57 examples respectively grading MS66 and I have several of each in that grade for which I paid under 150USD at recent auctions. But for 1960 florins there are 6 more in MS67 and for 1962 just 1 more in MS66+. None of the top pop 1960 florins have been sold in the past decade and the sole top pop 1962 has never been sold. So if those top pop coins were downgraded even a point, let alone 2 points then they will become a common grade florin worth 3 to 10% of what the top pop coins would probably sell for and will PCGS decide to compensate for what could be a 97% drop in value or fob the coins owner off with a measly few hundred bucks? So for any of my coins that I own in rare top pop grades (and worth thousands in those grades) there is no chance I will send them back to get the grade checked as even a half point downgrade will lose most of the value. In other words that guarantee is just a worthless selling gimmick Edit to add. I can pick up graded 1962 florins in MS65 for under $50 and that sole example at MS66+ would likely sell for at least $5000 but probably over $10,000 so a less than 2 point drop is a 99 to 99.? drop in value. Edited by nealeffendi 01/08/2025 09:16 am Report this Post to the Staff
Earle42 Bedrock of the Community United States 10029 Posts	Posted 01/08/2025 10:52 am Quote: @Earle42. About that PCGS guarantee; I see a few problems with it only being invoked if off by 2 points. Firstly even a half point grade difference can be a difference in value of 20X for certain coins and secondly how do they determine the value of any grade if few or no coins of that grade ever come to market? I totally agree with you. But then again, since grades are subjectively assigned, aka. no legitimate and measurable standards used to grade, then just how can someone ever prove the grade is off by two points to invoke the guarantee anyway? Better yet: Note the "guarantee" only covers coins that supposedly are graded HIGHER than what they "should" be? So just how many people send their coins back in to be devalued anyway? In other words, the entire guarantee is nullified by the subjective method they employ to grade coins! You inspired me to post an analysis of the actual wording used in the PCGS guarantee. You can find it here: http://goccf.com/t/475043 Basically the entire "guarantee" is nothing but a PR/marketing tool that keeps them totally unaccountable. In their favor...the guarantee is good if they slab a fake as genuine. How much squash could a Sasquatch squash if a Sasquatch would squash squash? Download and read: Grading the graders Costly TPG ineptitude and No FG Kennedy halves https://ln5.sync.com/dl/7ca91bdd0/w...i3b-rbj9fir2 Edited by Earle42 01/08/2025 10:54 am Report this Post to the Staff
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