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 Replies: 10 / Views: 958 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
978 Posts |
Below is the statistical probabilities response by ChatGPT of finding a single Wheat cent, finding 68 wheat cents and finding 82 wheat cents in 3 different $25.00 boxes of Loomis wrapped pennies. I recently found in two consecutive box hunts 82 and 68 wheat cents. Both boxes were from a recently opened branch of Chase Bank. In both boxes there were recently minted Shield cents to include a few MS 2024 Shield cents. None these rolls were hand wrapped, all were machine wrapped. ChatGPT's Response:You're asking for the **statistical probabilities** behind:
1. Getting **a single Wheat cent** in a **Loomis-wrapped \$25 penny box**
2. Getting **two separate \$25 Loomis boxes** containing **68** and **82** Wheat cents respectively
To answer this accurately, we'll model it using **binomial** and **Poisson** distributions, assuming a realistic (low) occurrence rate of Wheat cents in modern circulation.
## #129003; Basics First
Each \$25 box contains **2,500 pennies**. Loomis boxes are **machine-sorted** and typically contain mostly **post-1982 copper/zinc cents**, with **very few Wheat cents**.
## #129001; 1. Probability of Getting **Exactly One** Wheat cent in a Loomis \$25 Box
### #9881;#65039; Assumptions:
* Let's assume the occurrence rate of Wheat cents in Loomis boxes is about **0.04%**, or **1 in 2,500** coins.
* This is consistent with recent reports from coin roll hunters.
Let:
* $n = 2500$
* $p = 0.0004$
* $X \sim \text{Binomial}(n = 2500, p = 0.0004)$
The probability of getting **exactly 1** Wheat cent is:
$$
P(X = 1) = \binom{2500}{1} (0.0004)^1 (1 - 0.0004)^{2499}
$$
Approximating:
$$
P(X = 1) \approx 2500 \cdot 0.0004 \cdot e^{-1} \approx 1 \cdot 0.3679 \approx 36.8\%
$$
#128994; **So, there's about a 36.8% chance** of getting **exactly one** Wheat cent in a Loomis box.
The chance of getting **at least one** (i.e., 1 or more) is:
$$
P(X \geq 1) = 1 - (1 - 0.0004)^{2500} \approx 1 - e^{-1} = 1 - 0.3679 = 0.6321
$$
#128994; **About 63.2% chance** of finding **at least one** Wheat cent.
## #128997; 2. Probability of Getting Two Boxes with **68** and **82** Wheat Cents
### #9881;#65039; Again, assuming:
* **p = 0.0004**, and
* **n = 2,500 coins per box**
* So the expected average is **λ = np = 1 Wheat cent per box**
This is a **Poisson process**, and we're looking at:
$$
P(X = 68; \lambda = 1), \quad P(Y = 82; \lambda = 1)
$$
The Poisson probability is:
$$
P(k; \lambda) = \frac{e^{-\lambda} \lambda^k}{k!}
$$
With $\lambda = 1$, $k = 68$ or $82$, the probabilities are:
$$
P(68;1) = \frac{e^{-1} \cdot 1^{68}}{68!} \approx \frac{0.3679}{68!}
$$
Even with a calculator, this is astronomically small.
Just for scale:
* $68! \approx 1.7 \times 10^{96}$
* So $P(68;1) \approx \frac{0.3679}{1.7 \times 10^{96}} \approx 2.2 \times 10^{-97}$
That's:
> #128308; 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000022%
Which is **effectively zero**.
Same applies to 82 Wheat cents — it's even more improbable.
## #127922; Joint Probability of Two Boxes
Assuming independence between boxes:
$$
P(\text{Box 1 = 68}) \cdot P(\text{Box 2 = 82}) \approx (2.2 \times 10^{-97}) \cdot (1.2 \times 10^{-117}) \approx 2.6 \times 10^{-214}
$$
That's a number so small it's effectively impossible under normal circumstances.
## #128204; Final Summary
| Scenario | Probability |
| ------------------------------------------------- | -------------- |
| Getting **1 Wheat cent** in a Loomis \$25 box | \~36.8% |
| Getting **#8805;1** Wheat cent in a Loomis box | \~63.2% |
| Getting **68 Wheat cents** in a box (Poisson λ=1) | \~2.2 × 10#8315;#8313;#8311; |
| Getting **68 and 82 Wheat cents** in two boxes | \~2.6 × 10#8315;²¹#8308; |
## #129504; Realistic Interpretation
If you found **68** and **82** Wheat cents in Loomis-wrapped boxes, this strongly suggests:
* A **collection dump** entered the coin supply.
* The Wheat cents weren't pulled by Loomis (possibly hand-wrapped rolls inside).
* Extremely rare and **not** due to normal circulation.
#128172; Feel free to share more details about how you got the boxes — the source might help explain this anomaly better.
Clearly, I encountered a "dump" of some sort that I can only assume is related to the discontinuation of the Lincoln Cent. "We are all flawed, some MD and some PMD." NYI Edited by NY Islander
09/01/2025 12:20 am
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Bedrock of the Community
 United States
10470 Posts |
Quote:Clearly, I encountered a "dump" of some sort that I can only assume is related to the discontinuation of the Lincoln Cent. Well, you know what they say when you assume..........  |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
8724 Posts |
Nice wheat counts! Had a chance to search them for varieties and errors yet? Maybe time for a powerball ticket? It's over one billion dollars. -makecents-
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
19108 Posts |
Wheat cent dump? Yes. Related to the discontinuation of the Lincoln Cent? I suspect not. I came across a wheat dump 12-13 years ago--rolls picked up at a bank. Something like 450+ pieces.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
6988 Posts |
Quote:
* This is consistent with recent reports from coin roll hunters Who are these CRH'ers..... and are we now supposed to report all our finds to chatgtp....  |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10470 Posts |
Quote:
and are we now supposed to report all our finds to chatgtp Well..............  |
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Moderator
Australia
16805 Posts |
Quote:
...and are we now supposed to report all our finds to chatgtp... ChatGPT scrapes it's information from the openly accessible Internet as a whole. CCF is a very accessible part of the Internet. So every time you post your finds here (or anywhere else similar), you are in a way "reporting them to ChatGPT". Don't say "infinitely" when you mean "very"; otherwise, you'll have no word left when you want to talk about something really infinite. - C. S. Lewis
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Moderator
United States
187446 Posts |
Quote:
ChatGPT scrapes it's information from the openly accessible Internet as a whole. CCF is a very accessible part of the Internet. So every time you post your finds here (or anywhere else similar), you are in a way "reporting them to ChatGPT". This. |
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
978 Posts |
My logic for suspecting "the dump" I experienced is based on my belief that the uninformed masses, the holders of jars, buckets and barrel of pennies believe they will become valueless when the coin is discontinued in 2026. Therefore they are converting their pennies to cash. This is my query and ChatGPT's response to my theory: Is there any validity to the theory that uninformed holders of jars, buckets and barrels of pennies believe that when the Lincoln Cent is discontinued the penny will become valueless? As a consequence of the announced discontinuation of the cent those holding large and small quantities of cents in piggy banks for an extended period of time would result in a larger quantity of wheat cents (pre 1959) finding there way back into circulation? Yes, there is some validity to the theory, though it's a bit of a mix of misunderstanding and practical reality when it comes to the specific scenario you described. Here's how it could play out:
### 1. **The Fear of "Valueless" Pennies**
If the Lincoln Cent were discontinued, some people might indeed believe that the penny would lose its value altogether. This is a natural misconception, especially for those who aren't very familiar with how currency and coinage systems work. There could be a group of uninformed holders—people with jars, buckets, and barrels of pennies—who assume that once the U.S. Treasury stops producing the coin, all pennies will be worthless. However, as I mentioned earlier, the penny would still hold face value as legal tender, and even more so, it would likely hold some numismatic value over time (especially rare or older pennies).
### 2. **Redistribution of Wheat Pennies (Pre-1959)**
Your theory about **wheat pennies** (pre-1959) being rediscovered and circulated again is an interesting and plausible one, though it would depend on a few factors:
* **Public Awareness:** If the discontinuation of the Lincoln Cent were announced and the public believed that their pennies would lose value, people might scramble to spend, exchange or deposit them. This could indeed lead to the rediscovery of older pennies like wheat cents that have been stashed away in jars or piggy banks for years. Some of these wheat pennies, especially in decent condition, could find their way back into circulation.
* **Value and Sentimentality:** Wheat pennies, while not particularly rare, do carry some numismatic interest, especially among collectors. If people believed that the pennies would become collectible, they might be more likely to sort through their jars to separate out the older coins to save or sell them. Those that don't recognize the value might simply spend them, thus returning them to circulation. However, the condition of these coins could affect how many are rediscovered. Many wheat pennies are worn down from years of circulation, making them less appealing to collectors, which could mean they just get used as regular cents once again.
* **Coin Hoarding and Re-circulation:** People have long hoarded coins for various reasons—sentimentality, perceived future value, or simply because they don't want to deal with the small denomination. Once the penny is discontinued, it's possible that many of these old coins would indeed be put into circulation. The question is how many people would actually bother to sort through their hoards or go to the bank to exchange them before the penny was phased out. Also, depending on the phase-out plan, people might be given the option to exchange their pennies for paper currency at face value, making some of the hoarded pennies less likely to be spent or circulated again.
* **Practical Effects on Circulation:** Assuming that a significant number of people did rediscover their hoards, it could lead to a temporary influx of older pennies in circulation. In particular, wheat cents, which are less common than modern Lincoln cents, might become more visible in daily transactions. However, because wheat pennies are not rare enough to be considered "scarce," it's unlikely that their re-circulation would cause any substantial long-term increase in their value. Most of them would still end up being spent as regular cents.
### 3. **Other Factors**
* **Coin Collecting Trends:** If people saw the discontinuation of the penny as a signal to collect, some might even start sorting through their old coins more aggressively. This could increase the circulation of not just wheat pennies, but other older coins like Indian Head cents (pre-1909) or early Lincoln pennies, some of which could be quite valuable depending on their condition.
* **Government and Bank Responses:** The U.S. Treasury might enact a plan to help prevent large quantities of pennies from flooding the market. They could allow people to exchange their pennies for other coins or paper currency in a structured way. If a large-scale penny collection program were implemented, it could prevent the market from becoming overwhelmed with older pennies, and instead encourage people to cash them in for something more usable.
### Conclusion
So, yes, there is some validity to the idea that the discontinuation of the penny could lead to the rediscovery of older coins, like wheat pennies, that had been hoarded away for years. However, this would be more of a temporary phenomenon unless there was a significant push for people to sort through their hoards. The real long-term effects would depend on public awareness, how the government handles the discontinuation process, and how much of the public believes that pennies, especially wheat cents, would hold any special value after the discontinuation.I take this as a plausible cause and effect for a short term potential for finding more Wheaties in your coin roll hunts. Happy hunting and Cheers.  "We are all flawed, some MD and some PMD." NYI |
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New Member
United States
25 Posts |
Quote:
My logic for suspecting "the dump" I experienced is based on my belief that the uninformed masses, the holders of jars, buckets and barrel of pennies believe they will become valueless when the coin is discontinued in 2026. Seems pretty plausible to me. Wouldn't mind finding more wheaties! |
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Moderator
United States
187446 Posts |
Wheaties are fun to find! They are not as common as they once were.
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Replies: 10 / Views: 958 |
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Posted 08/31/2025 11:51 pm
