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Replies: 2,837 / Views: 92,307 |
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Moderator
 United States
190400 Posts |
Quote: But I'm not giving the Casino my money that easily. The house always wins. 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1235 Posts |
I really thought we would've seen a dip this week with china on vacation. Sure not working that way yet. Oh well the vacation is not quite 1/2 over yet . Sit and wait.
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Moderator
 United States
190400 Posts |
Another day in the 70s. Upper 70s. Tomorrow is a new day. 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1136 Posts |
 Okay so here's what spooked me today and made me dump all of my Paper SLV today. At least temporarily. Above is a daily chart of the U.S. Dollar Index for the past 30 days. You can see $DXY was selling off heavily until it hit the bottom on Jan 27th. That was an over 3 Year Low for $DXY... We were coming out of Covid the last time it was lower than that. But if you compare this chart to the silver chart, you'll see that silver was topping out that week and made an All Time High, before crashing on Jan 30th.... And it's been selling off since then. $DXY however has been climbing steadily since then... It's been following an upward trend line represented as support. And bumping it's head up against an upper trend line, also known as resistance... Until today, when it broke through. The green candle to the right, in the circle, happened today. The last red candle after that is the overnight (beginning of tomorrows candle). So anyway, as you can see the green candle broke out of its trend and appears like it may continue to climb the support line. To me this is a temporary head wind for the metals. Strengthening dollar normally equals weaker Gold and Silver. But these aren't normal times by any means are they.. So for now anyway, I'll be looking for the dollar to weaken and fall through support. China being on vacation (less buyers) just makes me feel worse about it. So I'll be sitting on my hands until I have more clarity. This is just my personal plan, my paper trading thesis, not investment advice. 
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Bedrock of the Community
 United States
10601 Posts |
Relying on graphs for investments always reminded me of this commercial from a long time ago............  
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1136 Posts |
Quote: Relying on graphs for investments always reminded me of this commercial from a long time ago Yeah, except it's kind of like when your doctor shows you an electrocardiogram chart of your heart rhythm, and he points at a few blips he circled and says "see there, that's an indication you recently had a stroke" or "you're at risk of having a heart attack", you need medication ASAP. And you look at it and scratch your head,  because all you see is a bunch of squiggly lines that you can't understand, and you feel perfectly fine right now, so you just ignore his advice and call him a witch doctor.  
Edited by Harry213 02/19/2026 08:40 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1136 Posts |
Quote: Relying on graphs for investments always...... Oh and let's define this statement a little better.. Much like the global warming vs climate change thing, not exactly the same things, but I digress.  It's called reading charts not relying on graphs. Chart's are used by ALL high frequency stock trader's to find areas or signal's that suggest the best times to go long or to go short. Buy or sell. Get in get out. Investment advice however uses long term business fundamentals and earnings analysis. That's something you would listen to Warren Buffet for investment advice on, not to me or other traders that do short term technical analysis based on charts.. There I fixed it.  
Edited by Harry213 02/19/2026 3:22 pm
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Moderator
 United States
190400 Posts |
Quote: There I fixed it. Fair. 
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
5878 Posts |
Quote: Chart's are used by ALL high frequency stock trader's to find areas or signal's that suggest the best times to go long or to go short. Buy or sell. Get in get out Indeed. The question, is, though, do those charts actually help them make the right decisions? I'm reminded of that famous study where a monkey throwing darts to randomly pick stocks outperformed professional stock analysts who relied on charts. Or something like that...  
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1136 Posts |
The U.S. Dollar index squeezed out another tall green candle last night. And it just made a higher high on that monthly chart I shared. I think this isn't good for Silver. There's a few catalysts I think that would spark a jump up in silver. Dollar dump, or an escalation in that other thing that's currently happening with the TWO U.S. aircraft carrier groups in the middle east. Not exactly great things to hope for but it would definitely cause silver to move up quickly. 
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Moderator
 United States
190400 Posts |
Quote: I'm reminded of that famous study where a monkey throwing darts to randomly pick stocks outperformed professional stock analysts who relied on charts. Or something like that... 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1136 Posts |
Quote: Indeed. The question, is, though, do those charts actually help them make the right decisions?
Probably a lot more so than relying on a chimpanzee with a fist full of darts..  But it's really important to understand what you're talking about first. Money managers and stock trader's are 2 different people with different goals. The money manager that runs your 401k for example, he picks what they call a mixed basket of stocks. Sometimes those choices are influenced by someone else.. He doesn't use a chart to pick them, it's not his money, he doesn't care.. He just has to have a good representation of what's in the S&P or DOW or NASDAQ. You and I could just as easily pick these stocks. He doesn't care if you make a penny on it, or not, because he gets paid to manage the fund. If the market goes up, you clap and call him a genius, if it goes down you cry and he blames the market. Simple. People that "trade" stocks for a living have a deeply vested interest in making money. Losing money is not an option for them. 
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3330 Posts |
Quote: Money managers and stock trader's are 2 different people with different goals. I'll stick with the slow, steady growth of my mutual funds and ETFs. They've done very well for me over the years, but it's something you should commit to early. I do plan to sell off my common 90% stuff soon. I think I heard that the refiners are starting to accept it again, but I'm not sure...
"Nummi rari mira sunt, si sumptus ferre potes." - Christophorus filius Scotiae
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1136 Posts |
Quote: I'll stick with the slow, steady growth of my mutual funds and ETFs. They've done very well for me over the years, but it's something you should commit to early.  A wise choice and sound advice. 
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Moderator
 United States
190400 Posts |
Quote: I'll stick with the slow, steady growth of my mutual funds and ETFs  Quote: They've done very well for me over the years, but it's something you should commit to early. Over 25 years. 
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Replies: 2,837 / Views: 92,307 |