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 Replies: 2,863 / Views: 93,784 |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
36912 Posts |
We are in for a bumpy ride as this is far from over. New all time highs are still ahead and soon. Don't panic, hang in there. I remember when COMEX drove oil prices down to -$40 per barrel. The paper market is phony. The physical market will separate when dealers and refiners start controlling prices and ignore the paper illusion.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1140 Posts |
I found this about a circular released January 31st (Saturday) by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange: Quote:
CME Group has aggressively increased margin requirements for gold and silver futures multiple times throughout January 2026 to combat extreme market volatility and record price swings. Most recently, on January 30, 2026, the exchange announced significant hikes effective for the market close on Monday, February 2, 2026, following one of the sharpest single-day price declines in decades. So as if they haven't already been working overtime to throwing everything they can at silver in an attempt to crush it... Smackdown Friday wasn't enough? Now they're gonna try a smackdown Monday too. Kind of confusing when exactly this next smackdown will hit. Articles reference dates ranging from effective on Sunday February 1st, Monday night, Tuesday open, whatever, just another land mine to watch out for and get past. |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11924 Posts |
The CME is no different from coin dealers and retailers who have increased up to 20% the discounts when buying and premiums when selling to reduce their risk due to increased volatility at the expense of their customers.
No need to turn market realities into conspiracies. Why would the CME, coin dealers and retailers want to crush the silver market? All of these venues have never been more profitable than during this frenzy. They can't wait for the day when people are no longer flooding their places of business to transact in the silver market? That makes no sense.
All of these venues want this frenzy to continue. They just want to make sure they don't go bankrupt in the process,
IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.com |
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Pillar of the Community
 Canada
5405 Posts |
Going through my SEEKING ALPHA feed this morning
from them ..
" There are signs the rally could unwind. Refiners are ramping up scrap processing, industrial users are reducing silver content and overall industrial demand slipped last year. Financial strains are also mounting: high borrowing costs for silver, especially in London, have stressed banks and refiners, limiting their ability to smooth price swings.
That combination makes silver especially volatile. As one metals consultant warned, sharp reversals, like Friday's plunge, may become more common, and far more painful, for anyone caught on the wrong side of the trade, the Journal reported. "
Edited by Pacificoin
02/01/2026 10:57 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1140 Posts |
Quote:
The CME is no different from coin dealers and retailers who have increased up to 20% the discounts when buying and premiums when selling to reduce their risk due to increased volatility at the expense of their customers.
No need to turn market realities into conspiracies. Why would the CME, coin dealers and retailers want to crush the silver market? All of these venues have never been more profitable than during this frenzy. They can't wait for the day when people are no longer flooding their places of business to transact in the silver market? That makes no sense. CME is COMEX COMEX is a global, large-scale exchange primarily for trading "paper" gold and silver futures contracts to determine market prices, whereas coin dealers sell tangible, physical precious metals directly to individual investors. COMEX focuses on institutional trading of high-volume, standard bars (100 oz gold/5,000 oz silver), while coin dealers deal in small, accessible coins and bars. CME and coin dealers are not the same. Dealers do not have the ability to influence the price. What you are calling a conspiracy is, in fact, the reality, whether you like it or not. As your screen name suggests, it would be beneficial for you to learn more about the individuals and forces, often referred to as the movers and shakers, behind the metals markets. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1140 Posts |
In the words of the famous Jim Cramer that always says "Bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered" as a warning to overconfident investors.
I take that to mean - know when to buy, know when to sell, don't be greedy. Stick to your own personal convictions. If you think its gonna crash then sell everything, get out. If you think it's not gonna crash then buy more, but in small increments, scale in. Dollar cost average. If it goes up, it's okay to book a little profit.
So for anyone bugging out, panicking, just can't stomach the volatility, I got news- it's probably gonna get worse. If you're not taking in all the information, news and signals that are being written about and "telegraphed" and making decisions logically, but instead are "getting emotional" and reacting, then you're probably going to get burned in this environment.
Edited by Harry213
02/01/2026 11:33 am
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11924 Posts |
Quote:
Dealers do not have the ability to influence the price. Dealers absolutely affect the price their customers pay. Plus or minus up to 20% from the spot price. That is the way that they risk manage their business so that they don't pay $100/oz for silver at one moment and the price drops to $80 five minutes later and they get stuck with a $20 loss on every oz. Often, they affect the price their customers pay more than CME does.Neither the CME nor dealers nor retailers want to crush the market. They make money hand over fist during this frenzy. Both their volumes and their margins are better by a mile during this frenzy. Where is your evidence that they want to crush the market? Why do they want to crush the market and ruin the best thing that ever happened to them? How do they benefit from crushing the silver market? Increased premiums, discounts and margins are risk management tools, not a conspiracy to crush the silver market and their businesses. IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.com |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1140 Posts |
Quote:
Dealers absolutely affect the price their customers pay. Please show exactly how it's the dealers that actually move the global spot price of metals and not the big paper COMEX, bullion banks, etc. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1140 Posts |
Quote:
Where is your evidence that they want to crush the market? Why do they want to crush the market and ruin the best thing that ever happened to them? How do they benefit from crushing the silver market?
Margin hikes and calls crush gold and silver prices by forcing leveraged traders to sell, causing rapid downward price cascades. When exchanges like the CME increase margin requirements (often by 30% or more during high volatility), traders must post more cash. If they cannot, they are forced to liquidate positions. How Margin Hikes and Calls Impact Precious Metals: Forced Liquidation: When margin requirements rise—as they did for silver in December 2025 following a surge towards $80/oz—long investors with high leverage are forced to sell, driving prices down. Reduced Leverage: Increased margin costs force traders to reduce their position sizes, creating intense selling pressure. The "Short Squeeze" Reverse: While high prices often cause short-sellers to cover (buying back contracts and raising prices), a sudden margin hike forces both longs and shorts to reassess, often leading to a chaotic, involuntary unwinding of positions. Volatility Amplification: Because silver is a smaller, more volatile market compared to gold, a margin-induced sell-off can create a more dramatic, rapid, and sometimes "panicky" price drop. Now you're turn Numismatic student, show how it's the smaller dealers are the ones that really move the market. And that this is just a big scary conspiracy. |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11924 Posts |
Quote:
COMEX is a global, large-scale exchange primarily for trading "paper" gold and silver futures contracts to determine market prices, whereas coin dealers sell tangible, physical precious metals directly to individual investors. Wrong. The futures market is not set up primarily to trade "paper" gold or silver futures contracts. The primary function of commodity futures markets is to buy and sell physical silver, gold and a host of other commodities for delivery at a future date. This is so that industrial users and some large scale investors of silver can have some certainty about the availability and price of silver at a certain future date. As an secondary adjunct, there is a group of speculators who by and sell futures contracts never intending to take physical delivery of silver and just want to make money on the price changes and volatility of silver. These folks sometimes pile in and overwhelm the people who need physical silver at a future date for delivery. These speculators play an important role in price discovery as they trade based on minute to minute events affecting the price of silver. Without the speculators, the price of silver and other commodities would not account for world events that affect the price of silver. It would be driven by only supply and demand from mostly industrial users. Speculators can at times have nefarious intent, like wanting to manipulate the price or silver up or down. But the strategies of these speculators should not be conflated with the intent of the CME when it is adjusting its margins to reflect greater volatility in the market. IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.com |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1140 Posts |
Quote:
Now you're turn Numismatic student, show how it's the smaller dealers are the ones that really move the market. And that this is just a big scary conspiracy. Still waiting for your examples, but also could you explain why COMEX would do something that would cause a sell-off? instead of doing something that would cause an increase? And who or what would influence the COMEX to do it? Since as you said earlier "these higher prices is the best thing that's ever happened to them, why would they want to crush it?" Or something like that. |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11924 Posts |
Quote:
Margin hikes and calls crush gold and silver prices by forcing leveraged traders to sell, causing rapid downward price cascades. When exchanges like the CME increase margin requirements (often by 30% or more during high volatility), traders must post more cash. If they cannot, they are forced to liquidate positions. Here you are conflating the effect and the cause. Yes, certain risk management actions temper the market, but the reason why margins are increased is not because they want to crush the market, it is because margin buyers post a little cash to place a large leveraged position. The increased margin in a volatile market is to address the risk that a holder of a leveraged position does not walk away in bankruptcy after incurring huge losses. Those losses, if not recovered are allocated to all members of the exchange. When price volatility increases, the risk of of incurring a loss and the magnitude of the losses increases. They are curtailing that risk, not trying to crush the market. Again, why would they want to crush the market and act against their own interests when this is the most profitable time in history operating their silver exchange? IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.com |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11924 Posts |
Quote:
Still waiting for your examples, but also could you explain why COMEX would do something that would cause a sell-off? instead of doing something that would cause an increase? And who or what would influence the COMEX to do it? Since as you said earlier "these higher prices is the best thing that's ever happened to them, why would they want to crush it?" Or something like that. Harry, I never said that dealers move the market. Small dealers don't. I clearly stated that they affect the prices that their customers pay by charging plus or minus up to 20% premiums to their customers. That is often greater than the swing on CME spot prices on most days. CME is not there to fix margins to crush the silver market, It is there to maximize its profits and manage their risks like most businesses. Market manipulation is done mainly by market participants when it happens. you keep accusing the CME of wanting to crush the market providing zero evidence to that effect. Just repeating that everybody knows it and conflating their normal and appropriate risk management practices. IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.comEdited by numismatic student
02/01/2026 12:12 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2874 Posts |
A gap-open to $110 in the morning would be fun to see.  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1140 Posts |
Quote:
The CME is no different from coin dealers and retailers who have increased up to 20% the discounts when buying and premiums when selling to reduce their risk due to increased volatility at the expense of their customers.
No need to turn market realities into conspiracies. Why would the CME, coin dealers and retailers want to crush the silver market? All of these venues have never been more profitable than during this frenzy. Your words, Numismatic student, not mines. As for me being wrong about anything, there's quite a few wrong in how you began this debate with the above references. I invite anyone else to breakdown your above quote. And by the way dealers "profit" from the premiums they make on each transaction. Not the current spot price, whether it's $50 an oz or $80 an oz. And speaking of conflating I also invite anyone to examine all the "conflating" that's packed into the above statement. COMEX and dealers? It's really simple, you conflated COMEX with the LCS. I showed how one influences the other, not vice versa. Your immediate reaction was to say I was wrong which is fine, unless your primary objected is purely to find something wrong.  But yeah whatever man. I'll keep waiting  But above everything else, I know one thing is certain. When the market opens Monday, I will look for ways to profit from the move, either way. Up or Down, doesn't matter to me.. Because I had to learn the hard way to react to volatility primarily through logic, and not emotions.  Edited by Harry213
02/01/2026 12:46 pm
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Replies: 2,863 / Views: 93,784 |
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Posted 02/01/2026 09:47 am
