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 Replies: 2,863 / Views: 93,853 |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1140 Posts |
Quote:
A gap-open to $110 in the morning would be fun to see. Indeed it would  |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11924 Posts |
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Here you are conflating the effect and the cause. Yes, certain risk management actions temper the market, but the reason why margins are increased is not because they want to crush the market, it is because margin buyers post a little cash to place a large leveraged position. The increased margin in a volatile market is to address the risk that a holder of a leveraged position does not walk away in bankruptcy after incurring huge losses. Those losses, if not recovered are allocated to all members of the exchange. When price volatility increases, the risk of of incurring a loss and the magnitude of the losses increases. They are curtailing that risk, not trying to crush the market. Just want to extend this illustration a little further. Take an insurance company. You own a house near the beach and get a hurricane insurance policy for your house. A hurricane hits and the insurance company calls you the following week and tells you that they are raising the price of your policy by $1k on renewal. Is the insurance company trying to crush the hurricane insurance market? No, it is trying to curtail the risk of current and future insurance claims. Perfectly normal and not trying to crush their hurricane insurance business. You probably won't like it though. Friday was the greatest 1-day nominal value drop in the price of silver in history. What should happen to the cost of holding a leveraged futures position in the silver market on Monday? Well, it seems logical that it should increase. Should we pretend in the futures market that nothing happened? Why the accusations that the CME is trying to crush the silver market? IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.com |
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Pillar of the Community
 Canada
5405 Posts |
An open tonight of $70 or less would be entertaining!
All I can say is that I am sure glad that I took profits all
the way way up and down .
Tomorrow's dividends in my Stock trading account
let me sleep at night .
Gold and Silver anxiety just keeps most up all night!
One thing this nutty market has done for smart collectors.
Let them acquire classic and rare coins they never thought
they could ever afford .
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1140 Posts |
Alright Numismatic Student, I'm neither going to keep reading nor replying to anymore of your posts regarding the debate that you started in your reaction to my post. I've made my point. I'm tapping out (anyone else willing to fill in, jump in).  All the Apples vs. Oranges  arguments that you can come up with to argue about, are just as bad, maybe worse, than political debates, and equally exhausting. I'm moving on for my own sanity. I hope your day get's better as well.  Edited by Harry213
02/01/2026 1:06 pm
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
5193 Posts |
For completeness sake, it is not just the silver marker than went up 100+% in the last 12 months. Look at AI, or semiconductor stocks like NVDA or ASML. Many of these also increased by triple digits.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2874 Posts |
We've been in an Everything Bubble for quite some time now.... it will be a magnificent bust cycle if/when it ever decides to pop.  |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
11924 Posts |
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It's really simple, you conflated COMEX with the LCS. I showed how one influences the other, not vice versa. Your immediate reaction was to say I was wrong which is fine, unless your primary objected is purely to find something wrong. You said: Quote:
COMEX is a global, large-scale exchange primarily for trading "paper" gold and silver futures contracts to determine market prices, whereas coin dealers sell tangible, physical precious metals directly to individual investors. This was untrue when you said it and shows that you do not understand what a paper contract market is. Every standard COMEX silver futures contract requires physical delivery. You can however sell that contract and close it out before delivery and there are alternative cash-settled contracts but that is not primarily their business. IN NECESSARIIS UNITAS - IN DUBIIS LIBERTAS - IN OMNIBUS CARITAS THE MAN IN THE ARENA, Theodore Roosevelt at the Sorbonne Paris on April 23, 1910: " It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error or shortcoming, but who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions, who spends himself in a worthy cause; who, at the best, knows, in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat." My coin website: https://fairfaxcoins.com |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1140 Posts |
That is true, there has been a run up in alot of things besides the 100% run in silver. All the AI stuff and the markets in general were at all time highs.
The everything bubble and looming bust cycle are real, and I read somewhere this morning that one of the banks has already called for that sell off to begin.
Edit; stated that all these things were currently over valued.
Whatever happens we are ALL in it for the ride.
Edited by Harry213
02/01/2026 1:42 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1140 Posts |
Numismatic Student, at this point you should just change your name to teacher. Just joking  but seriously though, read my post, I'm done arguing with you.   Edited by Harry213
02/01/2026 1:23 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2874 Posts |
A gap-down to a sixty-handle would also be great because..... there's a lot of "suckers", including myself, that'll jump in and buy. Possibly some 80 Calls, maybe even 0DTES's. IDK, I'm getting up early tomorrow.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1140 Posts |
Every drop will be buying opportunity for physical as well as paper and derivatives (options traders). Just as big moves UP will be selling opportunities. One big factor that must be taken into consideration now though, one that didn't exist before the crash on Friday, is overhead supply. There are now large amounts of buyers considered "trapped" above waiting to get out (panic sell).  I'm prepared either way for what promises to be a really bumpy ride. |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2874 Posts |
There are 2 psychologies at play here.... there are the ones that are still traumatized by previous boom/bust cycles & ones that believe this is a new era. We haven't had a substantial pullback the entire run up, 1 day does not make a market. Is there a possibility the selloff continues into tomorrow or for a few days? Of course. Weak hands will get shook out & they ALWAYS sell at capitulation, while others will be there to buy the fear. I'd imagine wherever this settles out, we'll likely see a nice bounce & likely a retest of ATH's. On the up days, bulls will be celebrating.... down days, bears will take credit. RagingBull message boards of the late 90's anyone? |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1140 Posts |
 I completely agree. All the bets are in, forecasts and predictions are in, we'll compare notes on what actually happened after all the dust settles, whenever that may be. So let's buckle up and enjoy the ride.  Edited by Harry213
02/01/2026 6:38 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1140 Posts |
My bet (hope, educated guess  ) is that it will move up towards the 20 day moving average at $93 over shoot past $103 followed by a pullback to find support at at least the $93 If instead it shoots downward, and also breaks Below $74, I'll dollar cost average, buy a little more at the next low, and hold for a bounce. Edited by Harry213
02/01/2026 6:57 pm
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Pillar of the Community
 United States
5884 Posts |
At the start of overnight trading, it looks like silver is up a bit and gold is down a bit. Gonna be an interesting week!
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Replies: 2,863 / Views: 93,853 |
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Posted 02/01/2026 12:47 pm
