Interesting artical, thanks for sharing it with us. I notice that when he talks about scrap silver, there is no mention of silver coins with little value over melt.
He seems to believe that once industrial silver is used it's gone forever because it's used in amounts too small to make recovery feasible. IE battery contacts. I remember Doug Casey from the late 70's and early 80's. He likes anything that's dug out of a mine.
I'm not sure I buy it. There is and has never been a natural case of silver demand exceeding supply. Furthermore, silver prices have remained historically flat with only a few spikes due to market tampering (giving the nod to the Hunt boys and Warren Buffet). Some simple facts:
* Mexico continues to be one of the world's major suppliers of silver after centuries of exploitation. * Currently 75% percent of the worlds silver is obtained through secondary recovery from the mining of other minerals like zinc, copper and lead. * Mines like McCovey/Cove, Ruby Hill and Denton-Rawhide in Nevada actually closed before their silver lodes were spent because yield was too low. * China is opening new mines and becoming a large player on the world market. Many speculators originally tried to sell the thought that China would increase world-wide demand for silver. China currently sells significantly more silver on the world market than they keep.
Doug Casey himself admints that 2006 may see the first surplus in world silver since 1989. I fail to see how this will increase spot prices.
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