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 Replies: 9 / Views: 1,753 |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1442 Posts |
It feels like we're about to get a crash in precious metals in the coming weeks/months. In technical analysis terms, silver and palladium are breaking under EMA20, Platinum under SMA50, with gold still steady. Oil and Canadian dollar have also pulled back recently. If precious metals do take a 20-30% hit in the style of 2008 (hypothetically speaking) in the 2nd half of 2011...would this cause people to rush into the rare coin market...or would this cause a further erosion of prices of rare Canadian coins to the tune of lets say 75% off trends, instead of everything going at 50% off trends now? (I dont expect trends prices to change much)... I'm new to the Canadian coin market and dont have a good feel for the relationship between the rare Canadian coin market and the bullion market (if there even is any?)... Bullion has done extremely well over the last 2.5 years...is it turn for the rare coins to shine again? Or do they go down in flames with the rest of the commodity markets?   |
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Bedrock of the Community
Australia
21788 Posts |
Numismatic markets are influenced by bullion markets, but they are not the same.
The Canadian numismatic market would be influenced by bullion prices in exactly the same way as the Australian numismatic market would be as well.
Numismatic items with only a small proportion of bullion value in them are less affected, but there is still a tendency to go to a numismatic investment as to a bullion investment when other markets are bad.
In other words, the numismatic and bullion markets tend to be counter cyclical to the general share market. Lots of people rush to gold when the sharemarket is bad.
I am a coin collector at heart, not a bullion investor. Being an Australian, I do watch the commodities markets, but for an entirely different and more vital reason.
The Australian share market is strongly influenced by mineral, base metal, and to a lesser extent, precious metal prices. My superannunation pension value is strongly influenced by the Australian share market, which has a strong interest in these commodity prices.
Fortunately, we flog most of our commodities to the Chinese, who manufacture from those, to sell on world markets, their biggest customer being U.S.A., so I also watch Wall Street markets occasionally as well.
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Pillar of the Community
 Canada
1442 Posts |
"Lots of people rush to gold when the sharemarket is bad"
Not in the 2nd half of 2008...Gold went from $1000 to $700 (-30%), as the US markets dived almost 50%...i.e. they dived together.
My concern is another round of deflation and how it'll affect rare coins not bought for their bullion value...
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1150 Posts |
You will not be seeing a crash of gold and silver any time soon.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1733 Posts |
I think Danlos has a point.
What I think happens is that people paint the terms coins and silver with the same brush and the casual collector just shrugs and figures coins aren't a good investment because silver is down without understanding the relationship or lack thereof between the two.
Mixed in all of this, I believe Canadian coin prices would continue to go down even in the face of rising silver. The very rare seem to be holding steady, everything else is trending down. Great time to buy, but it's tough to consider a sale if you have a bunch of money sunk into a coin.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
629 Posts |
Bullion prices do not really affect me as a purchaser of Canadian coins. I want as nice a set of coins as I can afford. I don't have the money to invest into a big ticket item. There are lots of us smaller guys out there that drive the demand of the hobby and I think more than there are people that are buying the expensive coins.
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1442 Posts |
It doesn't help that the average Canadian is in debt up to their eyeballs...
As of 2011, Canadians are at historically high debt levels, and so are the numbers of bankruptcies...
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
1051 Posts |
Bullion has been on a tear for almost 10 years. The last few I believe have been heavily driven by a lack of confidence in the US dollar, and the possibility of it's loss as the reserve currency as the world. Where we go now, I honestly can't say, and I've historically been pretty bang on with my predictions. Something is afoot and we are headed for major restructuring, but how exactly that will affect bullion, stock markets, real estate, and forex I am not sure.
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Valued Member
Canada
153 Posts |
even bullion down, RCM still charge a lot for gold/silver coin |
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Pillar of the Community
Canada
2428 Posts |
I suggest that everyone just carry on with their hobbies and passions and let the markets work themselves out.
What goes up must come down and what goes down must go up!
Enjoy collecting and try not to get caught up in speculation that is of course if you not buying and selling pounds of silver and gold.
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Replies: 9 / Views: 1,753 |
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Posted 06/28/2011 06:47 am
