Mmerlinn Must Own A Crystal Ball....

Thank you, but I do not own a crystal ball. However, I do believe that if you take ANY action and repeat that action you WILL GET THE SAME RESULTS. In other words, HISTORY DOES REPEAT.

All I do is look at history, extrapolate it to the present, then run with the results. Am I always correct? Absolutely NOT.

This link (http://projectavalon.net/forum/show....php?t=5445) shows part of what I said in 2008, though the supporting thread has long since vanished into never never land.

Exactly, the fundamental issues that have driven prices have not changed. The only change is the sudden realization that the rest of the world's fiat currencies are even worse than the dollar. This has caused a little bit of strength in the dollar.

Even with the credit downgrade, the USD is still the safest bet in the world's eyes. TIPS sell like mad.

Another month and the Fed will be more paying (printing)money to service debt. There are 100 billion dollars in $100 bills that are almost ready for prime time(the ones they messed up). Also, there will be another big TIPS sell.

"The current trend is in the beginning stages.

After some time, you learn how to deal with the day to day volatility in silver prices. It is an emotional battle that long-term investors understand boils down to value - and no matter the price swings up or down, silver will never entirely lose value, go bankrupt, or be nationalized."

I got into gold at $300-$400 range and sold it all in the $1400 range. Yes, I left money on the table. But $1000 an ozt profit felt really good at the time.

Ed, I like that saying a lot. Where did you hear it from?

History WILL repeat EXACTLY if and ONLY if the same EXACT inputs happen. One "insignificant" different input will change the output, sometimes a lot, sometimes very little. Since no two people ever do exactly the same thing, the inputs are never exactly the same. Even if they did, even a different magnitude of a sunspot can change the output.

However, if you look at the overall picture, you can see the major inputs seldom if ever change. History then repeats as major inputs modified by minor inputs giving the same general results time after time.

Example are the financial markets. In certain years (like 1929, 1987, 1997, 2008, etc) the markets tumbled by almost exactly 40% in 56 days starting around the beginning of September. This year COULD be a repeat. Everything points to a bottom on Sunday, 23 October 2011 (manifested on the next day), at about 40% under the late August high. Will it happen? No idea. But soon we shall know.

However, if you look at the silver market now, you will note that it came close to $26 three hours ago in Hong Kong markets. That is almost 50% down from its highs a few months ago, and pretty close to the 55% percentage drop in 2008. So, it is quite possible this whole tanking issue could be over by the end of September. And that silver price is pretty close to the $22 I have been harping about for months. My GUESS is that when (if?) we see $22 silver, we will be near the current bottom. Again, we shall soon see.

Gold dipped under $1540 briefly 3 hours ago, too, far below the "smackdown" price promulgated on another thread recently. That, too, is getting within shooting distance of a bottom similar to 2008 where gold was down about 30%.

Always easier to do post-hoc, since the historians can and tend to pick and choose parts of the whole story that fit the story they're telling.

predicting the future's never easy, I gravel at your prescience mmerlinn, an apt forum ID might I add, master merlin

Hey Mmerlinn, Could you take a look in that crystal ball about Copper?

The Detroit Tigers.