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Mmerlinn Must Own A Crystal Ball....

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Silverhawk74's Avatar
United States
3670 Posts
 Posted 10/04/2011  6:14 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Not Tampa Bay apparently, and that is up to the second, lol....

Buddy JT at work is a huge Ray fan, he is crushed about now, esp after that rally to make the post season....
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Silverhawk74's Avatar
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 Posted 10/04/2011  6:16 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
An copper is like the kid the red headed step child kicks around, lol. Or the late great Rodney Dangerfield, as it gets no respect. Perhaps one day, will be another interesting metal to track, and I know all you penny hoarders are watchin close....
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GTALLEN's Avatar
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315 Posts
 Posted 10/05/2011  12:18 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add GTALLEN to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Puts and calls option plays on copper companies FCX, X, etc...would be one way I could see an investment into copper. Physical copper, I would have to fill the garage and backyard to make any short term money. Below are figures per pound. I think it has taken a beating, like other metals, of over $1 a lb from the recent peak.
open settle
Copper Dec 11 3.1340 3.1035y
Copper Mar 12 3.1580 3.1230y
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odentheviking's Avatar
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425 Posts
 Posted 10/05/2011  2:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add odentheviking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Quote: "I think it has taken a beating, like other metals, of over $1 a lb from the recent peak."

The real "beating" comes at the salvage yard, where they are only paying $2 a lb. for bright copper wire and 80c for wire w/insulation. Yes, I turn in the copper I find and buy Silver.
But the big question is do I trade in my stash now before copper drops below $3/lb. OR do I hold it thinking that the price will likely stay here or even go up a bit?
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 Posted 10/05/2011  6:19 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mmerlinn to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
You might want to investigate other salvage yards. Around here #1 bright copper is $2.65 per pound as of 2 hours ago. Yellow brass is $2.03 per pound. Unless you are in the middle of nowhere, I can't imagine that there would be such a wide spread.

As far as selling copper and buying silver, price the silver in pounds of copper then compare that number to the average. If it is higher than average, you would be better off holding the copper if you can store it. If it is lower than average, sell the copper and buy the silver. In other words, "spend" as little copper as you can for your silver.
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GTALLEN's Avatar
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 Posted 10/05/2011  9:49 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add GTALLEN to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
My personnel strategy has been small acquisitions of PM and hold. As far as other metals, I think if you can average down on your silver, then I would move to trade the copper. I just see more future upside to silver. However, that is me.

mmerlinn advice is excellent and the correct advice, basically get the most out of your commodity.

I will add that, I have seen 6 copper mines come back on line in Arizona and New Mexico, in the past 6 months. But, it took them a significant output of money to bring them back on line. An open pit in New Mexico, where my cousin is a part of a blast crew, is running almost 24/7. They have had several shut downs due to mechanical malfunctions and part delays. But, they are staying busy.

I have been seeing and hearing a lot more about mining news in general. More production to me would seem to drive the price down some. But, demand didn't drive the price up. Flight to safety(or fear if you prefer) drove the prices of commodities in general. That is my opinion.



Edited by GTALLEN
10/05/2011 9:56 pm
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odentheviking's Avatar
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 Posted 10/06/2011  12:12 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add odentheviking to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Thank you VERY much Mmerlinn and Gtallen! That makes perfect sense.

So if I do the simple math here...... the last time I cashed in copper it was $4/lb. and silver was $40/oz. Both have now dropped by 25%.
But,(as an example), my local buyer was paying $3/lb. for Bright Copper, but is now only paying $2/lb., a drop of 33%. So...... If I can find someone buying Bright Copper for $2.40/lb or more, than my Oz. Silver Vs Lb. Copper would be the same as April 2011..........Correct?
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Silverhawk74's Avatar
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 Posted 10/06/2011  4:50 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Most of these metals keep a real close margin of price difference from each other like Gtallen an Mmerlinn mentioned on the charts over longer periods of time perhaps.....

But you do see some odd cases, like Platinum is moving up again, but just crossed back over 1500 an oz. Gold however is still hanging around 1625 and 1650, fall, gain, fall, repeating over and over. Silver is really moving so far today, back close to 32 an oz, but once it hits $32, would not surprise me in the least to see it fall back to $29.75 once again, showing this repeat cycle of sorts....

My big question is....How long until the repeat cycle stops, and all Pm's really starts to move up significantly once again?
Edited by Silverhawk74
10/06/2011 4:53 pm
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nod2003's Avatar
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 Posted 10/06/2011  4:59 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add nod2003 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
What makes you think they will?
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 Posted 10/06/2011  5:00 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Brucec to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
My big question is....How long until the repeat cycle stops, and all Pm's really starts to move up significantly once again?

Well my guess is maybe around the end of December or February 2012 but who knows.
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Silverhawk74's Avatar
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 Posted 10/06/2011  11:14 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Silverhawk74 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Nod2003, because nothing ever stays the same. It is either moving up or down, or hanging idle for a bit....

Look no further than the growing masses in New York, fed up with big banks, Wall street and politics. We are in times of a true recession or worse, and I DON"T care what big Ben or any other talking head says, we are still in it and it is not gonna get better before it gets worse IMO. History shows strong numbers for Pm's always during these times....

They will go back up and beyond, count on it....
Edited by Silverhawk74
10/07/2011 02:50 am
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PlumCrazy814's Avatar
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 Posted 10/07/2011  01:24 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add PlumCrazy814 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I will add that, I have seen 6 copper mines come back on line in Arizona and New Mexico, in the past 6 months. But, it took them a significant output of money to bring them back on line. An open pit in New Mexico, where my cousin is a part of a blast crew, is running almost 24/7. They have had several shut downs due to mechanical malfunctions and part delays. But, they are staying busy.


Some raw copper mine output, if properly managed and refined, produces PM's as a "by-product". Sometimes, the value of the by-products exceeds the value of the copper.

Copper is one of the most useful metals known in my opinion. I think it will retain value. Alumimun is ok, but who wants to wire a house with it?
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PlumCrazy814's Avatar
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 Posted 10/07/2011  01:29 am  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add PlumCrazy814 to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
It all makes me wonder how much "paper" metal exists
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 Posted 10/07/2011  5:14 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add mmerlinn to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply
Oden,

I am not sure I am reading your last post correctly or not.

The gist I get is that you sold copper for $3/lb when silver was $40/oz. And that current price of copper for you is $2 per pound while silver is $31 per ounce.

Using those numbers I find that you "spent" 13.33 pounds of copper to buy 1 ounce of silver. If you sell copper now and buy silver, you will "spend" 15.50 pounds of copper for one ounce of silver. That makes silver OVER two copper pounds more expensive.

To pay the same price as before, you must be able to sell your copper at $2.325/lb or better ($31.00/13.33).

I do not know what the normal ratio between the two is, so I don't know which, if either, is the normal ratio.

But based on this LIMITED information, it APPEARS that selling silver and buying copper (discounting storage costs and problems) is the way to go now.

Before I did anything, I think I would research both copper and silver ratios for at least the last 20 years. Then when the ratio is significantly below average, I would sell copper and buy silver. When the ratio is significantly above average, I would just accumulate copper.
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Ed_B's Avatar
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 Posted 10/07/2011  7:56 pm  Show Profile   Bookmark this reply Add Ed_B to your friends list Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Alumimun is ok, but who wants to wire a house with it?

I admit that I would prefer copper wiring in a house but aluminum is a lot cheaper. Wiring with aluminum can be done safely but it has to be done right and the correct connectors used with any connection of the aluminum house wiring to any outside copper lines.
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