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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Clair I had to learn that lesson the hard way as I'm sure many others have as well. I had dreams of multiple 70s with a couple of the commems and all I ended up with was 10 69s. Couldnt even get the 1 to keep for myself so now I let others do the leg work for me. The only thing now that I take shots on are the 2011 Army half dollar commems as I cant find a PCGS 70 of those to save my life so if I get a raw one I bite the bullet and cross my fingers.
That is a good point about shipping time and how everything seems to take forever to leave the shipping centers now. I remember last fall getting things very quickly, but not it seems like everything is "backordered" from day 1 and its 1-2 months before you see it. I dont think theres anyway to tell but I would be very curious to know what percentage of FS/ER requests are sent in from individuals and how many of them come from the massive company/website orders. If I had to guess I think the overwhelming majority would be the HSN/APmex ect orders. The extra cost has to turn off most people who were thinking about it
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1027 Posts |
Hey, we finally have an uptick day. It doesn't buck the trend by much but 2185 coin sets sold in the last period. Still less than any day last week but we may have reached the point where sales will bounce around an average until near the end. We are at 138,863 and my graph is now estimating a final count of 197,858.
Edited by clairhardesty
06/20/2012 3:09 pm
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Anyone brave enough to order 100,000 sets and see if the counter shows it tomorrow then cancel before it gets processed and charged?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4901 Posts |
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Anyone brave enough to order 100,000 sets and see if the counter shows it tomorrow then cancel before it gets processed and charged? It would take 101 orders to do that..too much effort and my luck the cancel boxes would not be there |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
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It would take 101 orders to do that..too much effort and my luck the cancel boxes would not be there I take no responsibility if those cancel boxes disappear afterwards lol |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1770 Posts |
hmm I'm begining to think my estimate of 250,000 was way off? of course I'm not complaning less is better  |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3755 Posts |
Ordered mine the other day. VACookey still needs to do hers. If it stays under 200,000 I will be ecstatic.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
927 Posts |
You know, one could look at a low order total more than one way. A low total (below 200,000) could mean that the sets will be worth a lot more in the future because of the low amount. But it could indicate low interest in the set, which may not increase in the future either. Low interest means lower prices in the future. I still think it will come in around 250,000 somehow, but I think it doesn't really matter how many are ordered. If 500,000 sets were sold, then this would mean there is higher interest in the set and the price could still stay high in the future. I am really curious to see how this plays out. The mint may have finally come up with a brilliant plan after all!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1770 Posts |
perfessor that is also a great way of looking at it, means basically everyone who wanted one got one that means one would have to wait many yrs for interest to come again, in the future someones going to want one and start a frenzy
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Pillar of the Community
United States
3755 Posts |
perfessor, nope. The interest in the Army commem skyrocketed AFTER production stopped. Thats a recent example. What happens is people procrastinate because its not a limited edition and they end up missing the boat. Or they just did not know about it until after the fact. Plus you do not take into account the influx of new collectors all the time. So low initial orders is not necessarily an indicator of lack of interest and demand later on.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1116 Posts |
Quote:
smokeriderdon
What happens is people procrastinate because its not a limited edition and they end up missing the boat. Or they just did not know about it until after the fact. Plus you do not take into account the influx of new collectors all the time. So low initial orders is not necessarily an indicator of lack of interest and demand later on.
Human nature being what it is people will and do procrastinate. This plus peoples interest do come and go. After I got back into numismatics after a long absence I did learn about the 20th anniversary set well after the set was released by the mint, so I did have to purchase it at a premium. The more collectors that come into the field the more they will want what we have and thus the secondary market will always be a leading factor in coin values. Especially when they are looking for items that have a fixed supply. People that properly guess future demand will see the value of their stock increase. More future collectors will be looking for what they missed. It happened to me when I got re-interested in coins and it will happen to the future collectors. The question for todays collectors is how much do we want to profit from the future collectors. I bought extra 25th anniversary sets for this very purpose. I did the same with the current set. It is very likely that some of the readers of this thread have or will do the same. We are collectors first but there is nothing wrong with making a profit so that we can purchase more coins at a later date. Without profit we would all be wearing what we were born with. Besides it does make the game interesting and profit helps us keep score. Edited by ghostrider
06/22/2012 12:13 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1116 Posts |
Clair, I was wondering if your charts are still showing an estimated 190,000 as a final projection or has the projection changed in the last few days?
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1027 Posts |
I have two numbers, based on recent data. If the sales rate of the last couple days continues to the end we will see ~190K and using my SWAG estimate of an uptick in the last three days, we reach ~224K. Sales have picked up again, to a few thousand a day, so nothing dramatic but still an uptick. This weekend will, once again, give us much info, three days worth on Monday. It would not surprise me if some of the collectors who were holding off are realizing that sales won't be enormous and are going ahead and buying now to get a decent place in the shipping queue. We are just now half way through the sales period, so there is still a lot of room for change, but I still contend that the big buys already happened and that there aren't hundreds (or perhaps not even tens) of thousands of collectors waiting for the last few days.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1027 Posts |
An important thing to remember about secondary market values is that the supply side of the supply/demand equation is not a function of how many of an item were minted, but how many are available for sale at any one time, that is. how tightly held the item is. The 2001 Buffalo dollar is a prime example of this in effect. Minted to the maximum of 500,000 the dollars still reap grand premiums because only a small amount of that total is on the market at any one time and demand remains high.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2734 Posts |
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Minted to the maximum of 500,000 the (2001 Buffalo) dollars still reap grand premiums because only a small amount of that total is on the market at any one time and demand remains high.
The price functions as a check on demand. There is no "availability" problem if you have the money. I could drive around Denver today and buy ten of those Buffalo Dollars, if I wanted to. Heck, I could have ten 1932-D Quarters (in G-VG) to go with ... The 2012 Set is still under 200k, and my order is in the latest total. The same thing about high price being a check on demand applies to this new Set.  Quote:
2011 Army half dollar commems as I can't find a PCGS 70 of those to save my life Do 2011-D Uncirculated PCGS MS-70 coins even exist? I've only seen one NGC 70 of those. I don't think any of my raw 2011-D's would grade "70", even by NGC or ANACS... Edited by DNA
06/23/2012 4:33 pm
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Posted 06/20/2012 3:07 pm
