New Silver Eagle SF Mint Two-Coin Set

I think ther will be a strong uptick in orders near the end of the ordering period. I beleive sales will remain low for the next 2 weeks or so and then begin to pick up as people see that the low numbers may make them somewhat rare.
My guess is that the total number will be the sum of the daily average forthe first 8 days.
Thats my theroy and I'm sticking with it.

Actually, If sales continue at the current rate, we will end up at around 195,000. With a decent uptick in the last few days it will reach about 230,000. Yesterday's sales were only 2972 units, the lowest single day so far and almost 200 units less than the previous day.

First day 85,341
next 3 days average 9,906 11.6%
then 6,245 63.0%
then 4,067 65.1%
then 3,169 77.9%
then 2,972 93.8%

So it looks like we might run at a fairly steady 2800 units a day until the last few days, when I expect a lot of maybe buyers to join in because the total sales will only be around 180,000. Then, with a fairly hefty influx of last minute buyers we should reach around 225,000 units at the end.

Ghost I generally agree with that but in this case I think a good amount of people are waiting to see if they want to get it or not at all. If the mintage is high by then last day should be slow, if low though I would expect a last minute surge

I'm surprised at the low numbers so far! Better for us.

Haven't seen any graded PR70 sets being offered on ebay yet. I figured all the dealers had there sets graded by now and that John Mercanti has finished signing all his sets!!

Nothing about this sets is normal......I keep checking to make sure my order actually went through and is being processed. Worried I'm going to get an email from the mint saying sorry due to the unexpected low mintage, we couldn't fill your order because Mr. Mercanti had to sign 2 more sets........

EVERYONE is waiting to see the end of sale numbers and the present number is showing that. Nothing much will happen until the last week of sales and you will have to have steel cojones to wait until the July 5th 3pm numbers come out...if they do

What we actually have to wait for is the July 6th update at ~3PM ET. That update (like you say, if it happens) will have the final sales (which end at 5PM on the 5th). I expect to see an uptick in sales a couple of days before the end but I am not sure how big the final push will actually be. Are there really that many people waiting until the last day? Do they want to risk not being able to get FS/ER labels if they are slabbers? I think I may have been wrong about the base demand being about 250K. It may be a great deal less than that due to a number of factors. My graph, even with its doubling of sales for each of the last three days, is predicting only 174K units, which my gut still says is low. We have two full weeks of "status quo" sales ahead of us and that time will be very telling. If sales stay flat (at the ~1300 per day that they were over the weekend) for those two weeks then we almost certainly come in under 200K. I suppose it is possible that the base demand for sets like these is really at or below 200k today. That would still be enough to explain the prices being paid for the 2011 sets and the 2006 set is primarily a function of the RP coin's availability in the marketplace. I think that the secondary market value of this set will be in part a function of the fact that both coins are unique but also, much like the 2001 Buffalo dollar, a function of how many are on the market at any one time. If these sets end up being tightly held then long term values could easily be triple the issue price. It doesn't look at this time that "mint to demand" is going to cause a glut and those who are betting on secondary prices to be at or below issue price are probably betting on green.

I dont think any of the sets are really in danger of not being able to get the FS/ER label. But for individuals that like slabbed I feel like the vast majority of the FS/ER come from the massive site orders that get it. I only collect slabbed but dont care about FS/ER at all. I think I have 1 coin with it and its only because it was priced like it didnt have it and was a good deal. As a slab collector as well I often wait and just buy already slabbed. Much cheaper to just buy my 70s then chase them for readily available coins without getting lucky

The mint ticker is not showing them number of orders, it shows the number of sets ordered, as verified by the mint's weekly sales reports. Today's weekly report shows 135,468 sets ordered as of yesterday. BB21, since you like to collect in slabs and like the high grade coins, you are probably being most frugal by buying on the secondary market, rather than taking chances (and hassles) with ordering sets from the mint and having them graded and selling off what you don't want. I too, think you are doing the right thing for your collecting style. The 100,000 sets of the 2011 set took the mint more than one month to ship out and just like this set, all were ordered before shipments began. I think it is quite possible that last day (or even last week) orders will not ship until one month after the first shipments are made. Only time will tell, but for those who are planning to have their coins graded and want them to get FS or ER labels (the latter being free) should understand the potential risks of waiting.