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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Ghost, I think the sales will pick up towards the end. I think a big part of it right now it just to many products from the mint to quickly. It seems like like to go a few weeks without releasing anything then put out 6 or 7 things in 10 days that usually sell well. But I do agree some of it is probably people trying to figure out what to think about these
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Pillar of the Community
United States
927 Posts |
Wouldn't it be funny if the total ordered is less than 250,000, the total for the 2006 set. This is certainly possible, but I do expect the last few days to be much larger in number ordered. I think the higher purchase price for this set is keeping the number of orders down. I have not ordered mine yet. I am waiting until next week.
For a set like this where we know it will not ship until after the ordering period ends, when does the mint charge your credit card? When you order or when it ships?
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Per in the past for back ordered items or delayed shipping dates because of that they charged mine when they processed the order just before it shipped. Not sure if they have a different policy for this but I would imagine its the same way.
Part of me hopes that the mintage stays really low so they never do this again.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1208 Posts |
I agree, I too hope the mintage is dismal on this one.
I am only ordering one set for my personal collection, so this
is not a profit motive... I just want some sanity to prevail once.
I guessed a number well over 500k in the mintage guess thread, but
it sure 'looks' like it won't come anywhere near that. It's actually
kinda fun watching and guessing though. It appears we will have to
see one hellva last day or two of sales to get anywhere near 500k!
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1208 Posts |
I just realized something....
You TELL people that the mintage is going to be limited, and they
fall over themselves, as well as lose all morals and decency, just
to order as many sets as they can.
However, you tell them they are free to order as many as they want,
and the sales are so slow that they threaten to make a rarity.
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4901 Posts |
Quote:
However, you tell them they are free to order as many as they want,
and the sales are so slow that they threaten to make a rarity. ...and you overprice them at $75/ounce. That might be another factor. At $109.95/set these would be flying off the shelves. This is the Mint sticking it to all the complainers...they let you order all you want of this special set and intentionally overcharge for that privilege... |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
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This is the Mint sticking it to all the complainers...they let you order all you want of this special set and intentionally overcharge for that privilege... And over saturate the market with so many San Francisco mint products it lost its niche appeal. The RP is new, but as far as the other coin its not even the first San Fran ASE theyve released this year. They had to put an S on it to keep the two different. Nothing special about it what so ever |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4901 Posts |
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They had to put an S on it to keep the two different. Nothing special about it what so ever The actual "S" marked coin is struck on burnished blanks so the appearance is a bit different. Definitely more like the W marked ASE than either of the bullion ones The Mint had no intentions of distinguishing either of the bullion ASE's....that is totally a marketing ploy by the TPG's. |
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Bedrock of the Community
13014 Posts |
Fox if the mint had no intention they would have made them all at the same mint. Considering SF rarely if ever puts out anything but proofs they definitely thought of the fact they could sell people two instead of 1 by having them do some
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1116 Posts |
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basebal21 Considering SF rarely if ever puts out anything but proofs they definitely thought of the fact they could sell people two instead of 1 by having them do some They could have made these even rarer by going to the West Point mint. This mint is used even more seldom than San Francisco. If these were to celebrate West Point they probably could of made purchasers purchase way more than two and at the same time increase their premium way more than than they did on this set. They could have made then a truly rare high price coin that would have definitely increased in the after market. Edited by ghostrider
06/15/2012 11:43 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
2734 Posts |
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At $109.95/set these would be flying off the shelves.
The $149.95 price will keep the mintage lower...    |
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1116 Posts |
Quote:
ratio411
I too hope the mintage is dismal on this one. I am only ordering one set for my personal collection, so this is not a profit motive... I just want some sanity to prevail once.
There will always be some sort of insanity in the collecting field so long as either miss their opportunity to buy or new collectors come into the market. But I do agree that ordering just for personal use is a good way to show the mint that their market is getting saturated and that overpriced products are not welcome. But until that day comes the mint will continue to do business the same way they always do. {edit} I too would really like to see some sore sanity come back to the collecting field, but I really don't think that will happen. The big factor that is driving the insanity is the major dealers. With them the mint is always assured of market demand and can price accordingly. Edited by ghostrider
06/15/2012 11:57 am
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Pillar of the Community
United States
1027 Posts |
The West Point mint puts out the bulk of bullion SAEs, and all of the gold Eagle and Buffalo products. The reason the SF mint is striking bullion SAEs is because the WP mint ran out of room last year and wasn't able to strike the 40 million SAEs that the APs ordered, and because it was SF where both bullion and proof SAE production started back in 1986. I have been plotting the sales for this set and projecting future sales based on the most recent day's units ordered. I also try to account for a surge at the end (because I believe the mintage will be low enough that many will attempt to cash in on that). For each of the last three days, I assume that sales are twice that of the day before and with that model and yesterday's numbers, I get a final sales of 233,117 units. Without the uptick at the end, my graph predicts barely over 200,000. I am pretty sure that all of the big dealers put their orders in on day one and won't order during the last few days because there is a strong chance that those orders won't qualify for either ER or FS labels. I do think that a lot of small dealers (the five to ten set types) are waiting until the end to see if this is a low volume product before ordering.
Also, I think that the $150 price falls right in line with the price for the 2011 set, possibly slightly cheaper when you consider the types of coins. If we use today's prices for proof and uncirculated SAEs, and assume that RPs cost 1.5X what proofs cost, we get 90+60+45+45+40=280 for the coins in the 2011 set (the $40 is what I think the mint would sell a single bullion coin in a capsule and box with COA like the uncirculated coin is sold) and 60+90=150 for this set. The 2011 set leaves room for $20 for packaging and this set has no room left. What I am saying is that if you think the 2011 set was priced OK then this set is actually a better deal. Also, based on this sets sales, it looks like we passed 100,000 units sometime on the third day so it is not surprising that the 2011 set, with that as its mintage limit, sold out so fast. Even with a month to get your orders in, we still sold 100,000 units in the first 10% of the time. This set may well sell right around the number that the 2006 set did, since it was essentially minted to demand as well, sales for it trickled off at the end (it was available for ordering for way more that four weeks). It looks like something in the 250,000 area is the true demand for these types of SAE sets.
Edited by clairhardesty
06/15/2012 12:20 pm
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Pillar of the Community
United States
4901 Posts |
Quote:
They could have made these even rarer by going to the West Point mint. This mint is used even more seldom than San Francisco. If these were to celebrate West Point they probably could of made purchasers purchase way more than two and at the same time increase their premium way more than than they did on this set.
They could have made then a truly rare high price coin that would have definitely increased in the after market. Quote:
The West Point mint puts out the bulk of bullion SAEs, and all of the gold Eagle and Buffalo products. The reason the SF mint is striking bullion SAEs is because the WP mint ran out of room last year and wasn't able to strike the 40 million SAEs that the APs ordered, and because it was SF where both bullion and proof SAE production started back in 1986 Exactly....and West Point is where the ASE proofs ARE made so what would be different? Quote:
They could have made then a truly rare high price coin that would have definitely increased in the after market. Do you really think price determines rarity? Then you should be all in with these.... |
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Bedrock of the Community
United States
10982 Posts |
Well, we're at 131,512 sets through the first 8 days of sales. If sales continue at this rate, the total will be 460,292 sets.
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Replies: 1,517 / Views: 102,446 |
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Posted 06/15/2012 01:40 am
